Sarah Hoyt has an interview with Jeff Greason (part 1, part 2 will be tomorrow).
[Tuesday-morning update]
Category Archives: Economics
NASA’s Risk Aversion
Remember when they were insisting on new-car-smell Dragons for CRS missions? Well, they’ve now approved flight-proven boosters. As I’ve long said, there will come a day when customers will demand a discount to fly on an unproven vehicle.
[Update a while later]
With today’s launch, SpaceX will double its record for annual launches.
[Update half an hour before launch]
You can follow launch and landing at the webcast.
SLS
You’ll be as shocked as I am to learn that first flight will likely slip into 2020.
Elon’s Plans
Doug Messier has a critique, with which I largely agree. He does seem to be laser focused on solving the transportation problem (which was the first one he encountered when he tried to implement his initial Mars plans). I emailed him years ago about the fact that we have no idea whether or not we can conceive/gestate in 0.4g. His response was basically, “that’s not my problem right now.”
But this blinkered mindset may not ultimately serve him well in terms of his long-term goal. It would be tragic for him if he solved the transportation problem, but not the biological one, and his dreams of Mars colonies ended up being still born, despite the cost reduction of transportation there.
The GAO And Climate
Media headline: “Climate Change Causing Billions Of Taxpayer Dollars In Disaster Relief.”
Accurate headline: “Cost Of Dealing With Weather Much Less Than Decarbonization.”
A New Space Policy
…for the Trump administration. I’ve just started to skim it.
Off The Air
I was at the Space Settlement Summit all day yesterday, and will be all day today as well, with a non-functioning laptop. I will be tweeting occasionally from my phone, however, and I’ll probably have some overall thoughts on the event tomorrow.
Forget Mars
A planetary scientist who would prefer to live on Titan.
As usual, destinations are a secondary issue. What’s important is the ability to affordably get wherever we want in the solar system. Elon is at least paying lip service to that now.
Morgan Stanley
…says that Elon Musk is building an elevator to orbit. Not literally, but certainly functionally.
[Update a while later]
Some news from Blue Origin as well, revealing more details about BE-4 and New Glenn. I found this curious, though:
Becoming a government supplier doesn’t happen overnight. There is a series of certifications one has to go through. Right now having ULA using our engines and qualifying our engines into that supply system is a good thing for us. They will fly a year ahead of us, in 2019. We will come into the market in end of 2020, 2021. And at that point if we choose to go into government contracting, it will imply setting up cost accounting systems that are geared to the government.
I don’t understand what he means, unless they plan to provide launches cost plus. For a fixed price, their accounting is none of the government’s business.
[Update later morning]
Chris Bergin has an update on the SpaceX launch manifest. Among other things, FH launch in December remains a possibility, NASA is OK with a flight-proven rocket for CRS missions, and first landing at Vandenberg will happen with the Iridium 4 mission. Plus, a mystery payload next month.
[Noon update]
Elon revealed more technical (but not financial) details on an AMA Saturday.
Trump And John Roberts
Trump has done what Roberts would not: Start to bring ObamaCare into Constitional compliance.
I continue to believe that there was something very disturbing about Roberts’ last-minute change of position, possible including blackmail. Recent revelations about other instances of the Obama administration spying on its political adversaries do nothing to reduce that belief.
[Update a while later]
ObamaCare was built with intrinsic flaws that Trump is now exploiting. It’s what happens from the hubris of thinking that such landmark social policy doesn’t need bipartisan support.
[Late-night update]
Sorry, everyone, but Trump didn’t instigate the ObamaCare acapolypse.
Nope. It was baked into the cake.