Category Archives: Science And Society

Extreme Misanthropy

AIAA announced a couple weeks ago at IAC that they are renaming their annual Space Forum “Ascend.”

Having gotten that announcement out of the way with the plug for AIAA (which graced me with a media pass to the conference, on top of my delegate badge), this cannot go without comment. As I was ascending (see what I did there?) the escalator to the plenary this morning, someone was handing out a flyer called “ASCEND TODAY.” In it, it had two op-eds.

The first was titled “The Argument For Riding Out Humanity Here At Home And Nowhere Else,” by “B. Line.”

Chances are it’s one of those survival tools ingrained into our genes — the notion that “humanity” as well as other species are conscious, sentient beings, aware of their own mortality and filled with the same emotions, desires, regrets, and consciences as though they were an individual.

It’s what leads us to feel sad at the notion of something becoming extinct as if the thing possessed a collective soul that would experience immense angst or anguish if it disappeared from the planet.

The reality is unless there’s a cataclysmic event, the end of humanity of any other species typically would mean nothing more than a gradual tapering of populations until there was none left. “We” wouldn’t be missed. But again, it’s not “we.” Or “us.” “We,” after all, are not part of a larger collective consciousness. Just as “we” don’t really win when our favorite sports tea does. “We” had nothing to do with it.

But while the end of humanity would not in reality cause any actual sadness — as human-caused global warming is proving every passing day — humanity’s presence is causing real pain and real harm to living, breathing sentient creatures. Our presence is slowly (quickly in geologic terms) making the earth uninhabitable.

This is why, personally, I don’t think we should attempt to perpetuate humanity beyond our own failed experiment here at home. Humanity has caused so much damage to our planet and the life that inhabits it, there’s little justification to inflict or scourge anywhere else in the universe.

I may have missed transcribing the first paragraph. I was going to fisk this, but haven’t had time, but I thought I’d at least toss it out as chum for commenters.

The Rolling Blackouts In CA

No, they’re not a climate-change story. It’s about rampant insanity and corruption of rent-seeking “green”-energy firms.

And this seems like cheating: Texas lures California businesses with promises of electricity.

What did socialists use to light their homes before candles? Electricity.

[Late-morning update]

California is approaching Puerto Rico territory.

Speaking of which…

[Thursday-morning update]

California is “winning” its way into the Stone Age.

And is the state becoming pre-modern?

Apparently. Pat Brown has to be rolling in his grave at what his idiot son has wrought.

[Bumped]

Model Land

Judith Curry, on a new paper concerning how to escape from it:

Naïvely, we might hope that by making incremental improvements to the “realism” of a model (more accurate representations, greater details of processes, finer spatial or temporal resolution, etc.) we would also see incremental improvement in the outputs. Regarding the realism of short-term trajectories, this may well be true. It is not expected to be true in terms of probability forecasts. The nonlinear compound effects of any given small tweak to the model structure are so great that calibration becomes a very computationally-intensive task and the marginal performance benefits of additional subroutines or processes may be zero or even negative. In plainer terms, adding detail to the model can make it less accurate, less useful. [Emphasis added]

Computer models can be useful in some circumstances, but they are not science.

An Argument Too Far

I don’t necessarily agree that the 737-MAX fiasco was a result of climate hysteria. Yes, the new design reduced emissions, but it did that by reducing fuel consumption, which is intrinsically a desirable goal for airlines. I’m sure that Boeing wanted to claim that it was lower emissions, for PR purposes, but fuel efficiency has always been a driver of new-aircraft design.

BTW, got home from DC yesterday morning. I had quite a week at IAC, but posting may return to the (subdued) normal this week.

California’s Planned Blackouts

Jim Meigs explains.

I just read that they’re cutting power to the Berkeley campus, which could be a disaster for researchers who need to keep things in the fridge, if they don’t have backup generators.

And you know what isn’t the problem? Climate change. Or at least not anthropogenic climate change. Drought is the natural state of affairs for the place. The 20th century was unusually wet, and a lot of policy decisions were made on the assumption that this was a normal state of affairs.

We’re on So Cal Edison, not PG&E, but we’ve heard that SCE might be planning the same thing. Unclear if we’ll be affected if they do.

[Update Saturday morning]

Californians learn that solar panels don’t work during power blackouts. More policy idiocy, and they’re compounding it by requiring every new home to have them. I can’t believe the state I’ve lived in for four decades, with such an innovative history, has become so effing stupid.

[Bumped]