The glorious thing about the three-way race for New York’s 23rd district congressional seat next month is, who actually gets elected just massively doesn’t matter. Recent polls have the Dem at 33%, the Republican establishment candidate at 29%, and the insurgent Conservative at 23%. There’s a real chance this insurgency could throw the election to the Dem – and it doesn’t matter. Liberal Dem, squish Republican, or Tea-Party Conservative, the winner will make zero difference in Nancy Pelosi’s control of the House of Representatives through the end of 2010. At which point, the NY-23 seat will be up for another election right along with the rest of the House.
Tea-Party fiscal conservatives can back Doug Hoffman, the NY Conservative Party candidate, Admiral Farragut-style (“Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead”) with nothing to lose and everything to gain. If Dem Bill Owens ends up winning with 34% of the vote while Republican Dede “I’d have voted for the Stimulus Bill” Scozzafava and Hoffman each get 33%, the usual suspects will no doubt tout it as a triumphant endorsement of Obamanomics. 66% of the local voters, and we, will know better. And whether their handpicked squish loses or just barely squeaks in, Republican establishments across the country will have to think a lot harder than their people in NY-23 did about coming up with candidates for November 2010 acceptable to those damn Tea-Party troublemakers.
[Update a few minutes later]
If squishes lose while Farragut-ites win, that might actually start to sink through the thick skulls of the Beltway elite (GOP flavor).
I guess it’s up to the RNC: Is winning that seat more important to them than keeping a Conservative out of office? If so, they’ll withdraw their heinously misguided support of Little Miss More Liberal Than Thou.
Here in Colorado, we have two races now in which the NRSC and NRCC are attempting to run an informal primary of their own (that is, clear the field of competition to their hand-picked candidates). One I actually respected until he was (to all appearances) talked into dropping out of the Senate race by his NRSC-picked, McCain-associated RINO competitor.
He was encouraged to jump into a Congressional race as his consolation prize…against, of course, the best-known Tea Party figure in the state. This is not sitting at all well with the grassroots people I know.
Naturally, unlike their competition the anointed Senate front-runner and the likewise-anointed RINO/wacky gubernatorial candidate can rarely be bothered to attend non-country-clubber events, and will not answer audience questions when they do deign to appear. The latter candidate has become so notorious about dodging appearances that it’s starting to become a joke.
The GOP is doing its best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory next fall. They steadfastly refuse to see that the game has changed, and insist on continuing with these little power-broker games they’ve been playing for years. They’re going to be unpleasantly surprised next November if they don’t wise up and get out in front of the changed mood of the electorate.
McGehee, yes, if Hoffman actually wins (it could happen, three weeks out he’s rising fast) that’ll really get their attention. But the important thing is, the serious threat of the Republican candidate losing. That is the danger the Rep establishment faces across the board next year if they ignore Tea Party fiscal conservatism. That is the stick that can beat them into moving in the right direction next year.
Dave P, don’t expect anyone to back down at this point. Who is stronger for the runup to 2010 matters more than who gets elected in this one race next month. Once this trial of strength is over, everyone will have something to think about going into next year’s contests.
And TL, the fact that Hoffman is polling near half the non-Dem voters in the 23rd (near half, and rising) should give y’all some extra ammo for the primary fights ahead. Use it! You don’t win if you don’t fight. And you don’t always have actually to win the primary to win, if you can force the squishes to adopt enough of your position.
cynically
Porkypine