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J-Vator? Probably Not

Leo Lewis notes that boosters at the Japan Space Elevator Association are psyched. Unfortunately, material science problems are still a challenge, albeit one that has potential to be solved quickly (say in the next 10-30 years) and economically–but it’s still only potential at this point. Kevlar is still king of industrial cabling, body armor, etc. so super strong materials will be a laboratory curiosity for some years before they will be available for Earthbound uses, much less space uses.

One oddity: electric power delivered by the elevator. That would be an electric line that would stretch around the world. Probably better to stick with power beaming by laser. With solar energy very popular, that should not have any laugh test to pass. Another oddity. They stick with the far counterweight popularized by Edwards; this may be OK for initial deployment, but once mass is coming up the cable, the counterweight should be closer and heavier and the cable shorter.

Palin Turnaround

My father, Dr. Dinkin Sr. author of Election Day: a Documentary History says that there has never been a VP who had this big an effect on the election–the most is about 5%. Further, that the last time a Party won that was behind in the polls after the second convention is 1964. Pressed he said 60-40 McCain. At intrade, McCain is trading at $0.52 for a security that pays $1 if he wins. Here’s what he’s trading at now (GMT):


If you smear lipstick on a pig, perhaps you have too much on.

Scaled Brings in SpaceDev Again

SpaceDev has announced Scaled Composites has selected them to develop a hybrid motor for SpaceShipTwo in a $15 million contract. The point that SpaceDev was selected (not down-selected) in SpaceShipOne development was 3.25 years before winning the Ansari X-Prize. This is consistent with the duration announced for the development contract for SpaceShipTwo’s rocket motor of “through 2012” with work “primarily completed over the next two years”. SpaceShipTwo will likely burn rubber getting to suborbital space.

True Credit Card Interest Rates

I had to extend a recent business trip and came back a few days later than I intended. I sat down to pay bills and it was the day after one of my credit cards had a payment due. I was hit with a $39 late fee, a $9.95 epay fee, and interest retroactively was jacked up to 21%. All together, I was hit with a charge of 1.27% of my balance for being one day late. That works out to an annual yield of 10,000%. Nice for them. Makes one consider supporting regulation.

Thanks, Florida!

Florida just bought 300 square miles of cane fields in the everglades to return them to wetlands. They paid $1.75 billion. That buys out US Sugar that was responsible for 10% of the US sugar lobby. In April, in response to one of Rand’s posts, I wrote that we needed to find a way to buy out big sugar. For 6 MT times $0.10 implicit subsidy/lb, that’s $1.2 billion/year. US Sugar’s share of that is $120 million per year. So $1.75B is a pretty good price for their concession.

Sweet deal, Rand! Thanks for taking one for the team as a Floridian to lower sugar prices nationwide.

A Belated Defense of Giuliani’s Tax Policy

My pick for the Presidential race, Giuliani, has bowed out. I like his tax policies. Not that I thought that he could get them adopted, just that I thought that he could achieve what Bush achieved–slightly lower marginal and average taxes for 10 more years. Before you write me off as an elitist who doesn’t like graduated income taxes (which I don’t deny–but bear with me), I agree with Laffer on this point. Taxes are above the monopoly rate. This is expected since there are four (or more) toll takers: Federal income taxes, state income or sales taxes, county sales and/or property taxes, and city sales, income and/or property taxes. When you add up the various employer and employee taxes (federal only) on receiving the last dollar (ignoring the sales and capital gains taxes associated with saving or spending it), they add up in the top bracket to 35% federal + 2.9% Medicare including employer match. That is, if I get $100 in gross in the top tax bracket, I’ll have to pay $36.45 in tax and my employer will have to pay $1.45. If we frame the percentage like sales tax, I am taking home $63.55 and together, my employer and I are paying $37.90. That is a equivalent to a 59.6% sales tax on everything I buy. In other words, to get a dollar, we have to pay 59.6 cents to the government. I assert that this portion of total taxation alone is above the monopoly rate. Tax cutters would have a very easy time getting tax rates cut (and, perhaps counter intuitively, taxes increased) if they could re-frame the tax code to show tax as a percentage of net income at the margin instead of gross.

Do we really despise envy so much that we would rather have the rich indulge in additional leisure than provide the maximum amount to the Treasury?

A Belated Defense of Giuliani’s Tax Policy

My pick for the Presidential race, Giuliani, has bowed out. I like his tax policies. Not that I thought that he could get them adopted, just that I thought that he could achieve what Bush achieved–slightly lower marginal and average taxes for 10 more years. Before you write me off as an elitist who doesn’t like graduated income taxes (which I don’t deny–but bear with me), I agree with Laffer on this point. Taxes are above the monopoly rate. This is expected since there are four (or more) toll takers: Federal income taxes, state income or sales taxes, county sales and/or property taxes, and city sales, income and/or property taxes. When you add up the various employer and employee taxes (federal only) on receiving the last dollar (ignoring the sales and capital gains taxes associated with saving or spending it), they add up in the top bracket to 35% federal + 2.9% Medicare including employer match. That is, if I get $100 in gross in the top tax bracket, I’ll have to pay $36.45 in tax and my employer will have to pay $1.45. If we frame the percentage like sales tax, I am taking home $63.55 and together, my employer and I are paying $37.90. That is a equivalent to a 59.6% sales tax on everything I buy. In other words, to get a dollar, we have to pay 59.6 cents to the government. I assert that this portion of total taxation alone is above the monopoly rate. Tax cutters would have a very easy time getting tax rates cut (and, perhaps counter intuitively, taxes increased) if they could re-frame the tax code to show tax as a percentage of net income at the margin instead of gross.

Do we really despise envy so much that we would rather have the rich indulge in additional leisure than provide the maximum amount to the Treasury?

Richard Garriott: Space’s Next Generation

garriott.jpg
Here’s Richard Garriott on a recent Austin ZEROG flight

Fellow Austinite Richard Garriott talks more in the December issue of PC Gamer about his upcoming trip to space:

I grew up with an astronaut father, and space has been my pinnacle interest since I was young…. the probability of me going [to space] the same way my dad did was zero….

Since earning my earliest profits in the games industry, I have been investing in privatizing space….

Here’s how he enabled Dennis Tito to get into space with his investment in Space Adventures.

I am also involved in Zero G, which has given me a taste of what I might experience in space. Zero G uses a modified Boeing 727 to take people on parabolic flights into microgravity. Anyone can book these flights and I tell you, it will change your life. People get giddy on these flights; they experience true happiness and living in the moment. I enjoy these flights so much that I recently chartered four of them to help promote the release of my space epic MMPORG Tabula Rasa. And my experience on them solidified my desire to get private citizens into space as well–even those without bazillions of dollars.

… I am lucky enough to be able to go into space myself through our work with the Russian Government! Earlier this month, we announced that I will be going into space as the seventh private space explorer, and the first second-generation astronaut, next year. I can’t tell you how excited I am about this. But I’m still my father’s son[;] I will be part of a team conducting experiments and bringing back new knowledge and data concentrating in four areas: commercial, educational, environmental, and artistic. This isn’t just a joy ride for me; it’s something I need to do.

Amen on the ZEROG flights.

There’s a little more in his trip-to-space blog.

Richard Garriott: Space’s Next Generation

garriott.jpg
Here’s Richard Garriott on a recent Austin ZEROG flight

Fellow Austinite Richard Garriott talks more in the December issue of PC Gamer about his upcoming trip to space:

I grew up with an astronaut father, and space has been my pinnacle interest since I was young…. the probability of me going [to space] the same way my dad did was zero….

Since earning my earliest profits in the games industry, I have been investing in privatizing space….

Here’s how he enabled Dennis Tito to get into space with his investment in Space Adventures.

I am also involved in Zero G, which has given me a taste of what I might experience in space. Zero G uses a modified Boeing 727 to take people on parabolic flights into microgravity. Anyone can book these flights and I tell you, it will change your life. People get giddy on these flights; they experience true happiness and living in the moment. I enjoy these flights so much that I recently chartered four of them to help promote the release of my space epic MMPORG Tabula Rasa. And my experience on them solidified my desire to get private citizens into space as well–even those without bazillions of dollars.

… I am lucky enough to be able to go into space myself through our work with the Russian Government! Earlier this month, we announced that I will be going into space as the seventh private space explorer, and the first second-generation astronaut, next year. I can’t tell you how excited I am about this. But I’m still my father’s son[;] I will be part of a team conducting experiments and bringing back new knowledge and data concentrating in four areas: commercial, educational, environmental, and artistic. This isn’t just a joy ride for me; it’s something I need to do.

Amen on the ZEROG flights.

There’s a little more in his trip-to-space blog.