Duffy wants to recompete HLS.
[Wednesday-morning update]
One of the reasons that we have made so little progress in space for the past half century is that Congress decided that NASA had to have its own space transportation, regardless of how terrible it is at it.
— Rand Simberg (@Simberg_Space) October 21, 2025
Delete unnecessary parts and processes ==> If Starship can land 100 T of stuff on the Moon, or fly >10 T to and from the Moon from LEO without refueling, all other parts of the NASA so-called "architecture" are unnecessary, regardless of how many tens of billions of dollars have… https://t.co/Gna5xuX9GO
— Casey Handmer (@CJHandmer) October 21, 2025
There have been many dud NASA administrators, some of which looked good on paper (e.g., Dick Truly). Webb was a lawyer, but even he had experience in the aviation industry. What are Duffy's qualifications? You need to at least know which end the fire comes out of.
— Rand Simberg (@Simberg_Space) October 22, 2025
[Early-afternoon update]
Bob Zimmerman is not impressed.
OK.
Competition is good. Especially for SpaceX.
The others are so far behind it isn’t funny. This guy thinks Blue can build a lander quicker than SpaceX? Lunacy.
They can’t but have to go through the motions.
Surely lunacy has its place for a *lunar* contract? 🙂
I put the whole emphasis on beating China thing as a one and done… Blowing billions in the process…
I’ve often wondered if SpaceX committing to HLS was/is a mistake…
That said, I love this quote:
“Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole moon mission. Mark my words,” he [Musk] added.
That prophesy could be true with or without a commitment to NASA’s HLS…
That’s what I think will happen. Nothing stopping SpaceX from designing and building their own mission their own way – cutting NASA and the ridiculous Artemis – and getting to the moon.
And like Mike B says above – SpaceX is so far ahead of everyone else that thinking someone else will go faster is rather amusing. Especially All Talk No Action Blue Origin.
Rumor has it Duffy would prefer to be NASA Administrator rather than SOT. So stir the pot? Bias for action?
I look upon this as Christmas preceding Halloween in 2025. The NASA Lifer Mafia, OldSpace and an over-credulous “Temporary” NASA Admin have combined to make the same mistake the Japanese made at Pearl Harbor and Putin made invading Ukraine – they think they can go after SpaceX while risking nothing they already hold. Prepare for a coming master class in the smashing of unwarranted assumptions.
The best part of all of this is that we now have Elon on public record declaring he will build an SLS-Orion killer. This was inevitably in the cards, but it’s clarifying to have it out in plain sight now. The next couple of years are going to be spicy.
Control F “Boeing” yields no hits
Duffy wants to be President, and the NASA Deep State is using that to manipulate him. Or so they say.
Lots of people want to be President – the majority of whom are dumb as fenceposts. Duffy might be one of them – if he is actually the credulous gull the collective Old Guard seem now to believe him to be. But he might also be playing some seriously wicked 4-D chess here. At this point, he’s a Schrodinger Man – perhaps a fool and perhaps a genius. We must await the opening of the box.
Anent Presidential ambitions, the admittedly spotty “tradition” of the Veep being the Administration’s space guy – which started with LBJ – has been looking a bit the worse for wear lately. Still, Vance seemed uninterested and has left the door open for someone else to grab off this portfolio, for whatever personal good it may do him. Duffy has at least stepped up. The coming few years bid fair to be quite interesting.
Sure, that’s the problem with Artemis. Way to put your finger on it, Duffy. Godspeed.
The most salient critique of my posts here is their lack of both aeronautical engineering and theory (not my field), orbital mechanics and mathematical rigor. So to make amends and with the help of Grok, I’ve put together a comprehensive matrix of all NASA Artemis Program options NOT using SpaceX.
Turns out the total matrix row size can be represented by the simple formula n=3!-1. With column size fixed at 3. Double checked by Grok. They are (in no particular order):
– ready, fire, aim
– fire, ready, aim
– fire, aim, ready
– aim, ready, fire
– aim, fire, ready
A student on the Engineering campus was wearing a T-shirt depicting the Apollo “mission architecture.” I walked up to him, told him I admired his shirt, “but now do Gateway.”
He didn’t seem to know what I was talking about. Is Gateway the name of the Moon orbiting space station for staging lunar landings, or is it also the name for the Rube Goldberg mission architecture of near-rectilinear halo orbits, cryogenic landers and 15 launches of a Starship-class heavy booster to reproduce what Apollo did with one Saturn V?
In fairness, Artemis, even in its current SLS-Orion-centric minginess, is intended to do rather more than Apollo ever did with a single Saturn V. An all-SpaceX lunar architecture that deletes SLS, Orion, NRHO and Gateway could do vastly more and be completely reusable in the bargain.
Between Musk’s tweet and the recent SpaceX announcement of commercial interplanetary trucking services beginning 2028 (apply your personal Musk time factor here) I’m feeling more hopeful about lunar development, whether NASA is involved or not.