16 thoughts on “Iran Thoughts”

  1. When the Iranians have had enough, then we will have their backs.

    Until then, they’re on their own. Despite what we see on the media, we don’t know if there is a critical mass of freedom-seeking Iranians.

  2. What’s more concerning would be if he made that “promise” without knowing he really didn’t have a way to follow through. Remember how many bombs we dropped on Iraq and still had to literally dig Saddam out of his hideyhole, with lots of boots on the ground.

    Suppose we did manage to decapitate the regime? The certainty would be that the lower level survivors would retain command of the apparatus of oppression and wield it with even less restraint. I would expect to see the new regime engaging in a lot of inter gang strife as well, but that won’t change who has all the guns and organization and who doesn’t.

    2. “[We] still had to literally dig Saddam out of his hideyhole, with lots of boots on the ground.”

      A common misstatement, brought about by those “boots on the ground” who found Hussein, and how they located him. Our men heard the faint sound of music coming from a spot on the ground, which turned out to be an air vent. Saddam was passing the time in his lair by listening to his collection of classic Cab Calloway records, and the sound travelled up the vent. What the soldiers reported was finding him by following the sound of “Minnie the Moocher” all the way to Saddam’s “Hidey Hidey Hidey Hole.”

      1. Reports also claimed he was staying alive in his lair while eating rations including “Hey-de hey-de hey-de hay” fed beef…

        1. I believe that I’ve read confirmation of those reports as well, but can think of no further depths to which this may be taken…Fine job, Spain, fine job!

  5. When will people stop believing Trump is so smart he’s playing four dimensional chess? Trump’s overriding motivator is aggrandizing his ego, and apparently it was no problem for him to effectively toss 100,000 Iranians into the gentle hands of the IRGC. Which has not only committed (and continues to commit) a heinous slaughter, but does so with unrivaled viscousness.

    2. What??? I’m shocked! Shocked I tell you! To learn that those who have guns make the rules in this establishment!!!

      Your ammunition sir.

      Oh thank you very much…

    3. Iranians aren’t protesting because of Trump. Iranians are protesting because they are unhappy with how their country is run and the conditions that caused that discontent aren’t going to disappear.

      The people most responsible for Iran are Iranians.

  6. I see a lot of people who would just rush in with no thought for how to do that or what happens after. Trump might have even been in that position as planes were in the air and ordered back. It could be that Trump made a mistake by speaking but people shouldn’t expect the USA can rush in like the Avengers.

    Timing is important. We didn’t have the ships in the area to handle missile and drone attacks, nor an aircraft carrier. We were off balance and it would have felt emotionally satisfying to strike right away but that wouldn’t have been the wise move.

    Trump Doctrine: Overwhelming use of military force for limited and defined purpose that advances our nation’s interests.

    One could argue that eliminating the current government of Iran is in our interests. But why are they a threat? Proxies and nuclear weapons.

    The proxies have largely been whooped by Israel and the threat of drones and missiles from Iran and Yemen can be countered over time. Nukes are different.

    I think Trump views removing nuclear weapons as the primary goal and is willing to let the Iranian government stay in power should they give them up. They have said they wont. Iran might feel that a war in an election year wont happen or will damage Trump but I refer you back to the Trump Doctrine.

    Right now, we are preparing. The protesters are not the concern, sucks for them but if they want a revolution, people are going to die. When we strike, it will be somewhat of a surprise and it will be very destructive. The nuclear capability will be snatched away and in the process, the Iranian leadership and military will be brutalized.

    If we help a revolution, it will be after that and even if we don’t, that is the best chance/time for the Iranians to take their country back.

    People need to stop thinking emotionally but rationally, apply some game theory. Look at possible events through the right filters. Remember the Trump Doctrine and that Trump isn’t like his predecessors, so don’t expect him to fight the same way they did.

    1. Generally agree. Trump has repeatedly said that the nukes are the issue. No deal on those and he goes in. Given that the US does not maintain the force level in that part of the world that it formerly did, it is likely taking awhile to get suitably ready to make any incursion both massive and quick. Heck, it took months to build up forces for Desert Storm and the US had a larger military then.

  7. We need to litter the countryside with AK47. Any flavor will do. No training is needed. Bullies don’t take up defensive positions and wait for reinforcement, they run.

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