Category Archives: War Commentary

The Current State Of Play In Iraq

Here’s a long, but interesting analysis. Doom mongers, and the Defeatocrats will hate it:

The great question in deciding whether to keep fighting in Iraq is not about the morality and self-interest of supporting a struggling democracy that is also one of the most important countries in the world. The question is whether the war is winnable and whether we can help the winning of it. The answer is made much easier by the fact that three and a half years after the start of the insurgency, most of the big questions in Iraq have been resolved. Moreover, they have been resolved in ways that are mostly towards the positive end of the range of outcomes imagined at the start of the project. The country is whole. It has embraced the ballot box. It has created a fair and popular constitution. It has avoided all-out civil war. It has not been taken over by Iran. It has put an end to Kurdish and marsh Arab genocide, and anti-Shia apartheid. It has rejected mass revenge against the Sunnis. As shown in the great national votes of 2005 and the noisy celebrations of the Iraq football team’s success in July, Iraq survived the Saddam Hussein era with a sense of national unity; even the Kurds

Coming Clean

Israel is now admitting that it hit a Syrian target a few weeks ago. Both the Syrians and the Iranians have to be pretty nervous, now that they know the expensive Russian air defenses that they spent so much on are worthless (at least when operated by Syrians).

Turning The Other Cheek

We can’t necessarily remove every dictatorial regime on the planet, but there were many reasons to remove the one in Iraq. Critics of that decision often claim that it was up to the Iraqi people to stand up to Saddam and remove him if that’s what they wanted. Some of them (particularly the pacifists among them) even cite Mahatma Gandhi as an example, and advocate the use of non-violent resistance techniques.

What they ignore in doing so is that Gandhi faced an almost unique situation–imperialists who were not monsters, and were unwilling to put down the rebellion with the brutality necessary to do so. To think that Gandhi’s tactics would have been effective against a Hitler, or a Stalin, or a Saddam, is foolish.

And here we have a textbook example, that demonstrates the fatuity of such thinking. Who, after all, is more pacifist, and (according to their theory, should be more successful with such tactics) than Buddhist monks?

Liselotte Agerlid, who is now in Thailand, said that the Burmese people now face possibly decades of repression. “The Burma revolt is over,” she added.

“The military regime won and a new generation has been violently repressed and violently denied democracy. The people in the street were young people, monks and civilians who were not participating during the 1988 revolt.

“Now the military has cracked down the revolt, and the result may very well be that the regime will enjoy another 20 years of silence, ruling by fear.”

Mrs Agerlid said Rangoon is heavily guarded by soldiers.

“There are extremely high numbers of soldiers in Rangoon’s streets,” she added. “Anyone can see it is absolutely impossible for any demonstration to gather, or for anyone to do anything.

“People are scared and the general assessment is that the fight is over. We were informed from one of the largest embassies in Burma that 40 monks in the Insein prison were beaten to death today and subsequently burned.”

The diplomat also said that three monasteries were raided yesterday afternoon and are now totally abandoned.

At his border hideout last night, 42-year-old Mr Win said he hopes to cross into Thailand and seek asylum at the Norwegian Embassy.

The 42-year-old chief of military intelligence in Rangoon’s northern region, added: “I decided to desert when I was ordered to raid two monasteries and force several hundred monks onto trucks.

“They were to be killed and their bodies dumped deep inside the jungle. I refused to participate in this.”

But such regimes can always find people who will not refuse (and some who will even take pleasure). If there is a solution to tyranny and dictatorship, it does not lie in passivity and non-violence. Or “dialogue.”

News That’s Not News

At least at the New York Times. Or if it was “fit to print,” they buried it pretty well.

“US Military Deaths In Iraq Lowest In Fourteen Months.”

Guess it doesn’t fit the template. Or help the Defeatocrats.

[Update in the afternoon]

It’s not just the military deaths that are dropping.

I should note, for anti-war loons. I don’t actually put that much stock in these kinds of statistics, for reasons I mentioned in comments–they don’t actually necessarily presage the future. I simply point them out to those who are so eager to leap on them when they think that they tell the false narrative that they want told.

[Update in mid afternoon]

For those who are into this kind of numerology, here is a lot more analysis by John Wixted.

News That’s Not News

At least at the New York Times. Or if it was “fit to print,” they buried it pretty well.

“US Military Deaths In Iraq Lowest In Fourteen Months.”

Guess it doesn’t fit the template. Or help the Defeatocrats.

[Update in the afternoon]

It’s not just the military deaths that are dropping.

I should note, for anti-war loons. I don’t actually put that much stock in these kinds of statistics, for reasons I mentioned in comments–they don’t actually necessarily presage the future. I simply point them out to those who are so eager to leap on them when they think that they tell the false narrative that they want told.

[Update in mid afternoon]

For those who are into this kind of numerology, here is a lot more analysis by John Wixted.

News That’s Not News

At least at the New York Times. Or if it was “fit to print,” they buried it pretty well.

“US Military Deaths In Iraq Lowest In Fourteen Months.”

Guess it doesn’t fit the template. Or help the Defeatocrats.

[Update in the afternoon]

It’s not just the military deaths that are dropping.

I should note, for anti-war loons. I don’t actually put that much stock in these kinds of statistics, for reasons I mentioned in comments–they don’t actually necessarily presage the future. I simply point them out to those who are so eager to leap on them when they think that they tell the false narrative that they want told.

[Update in mid afternoon]

For those who are into this kind of numerology, here is a lot more analysis by John Wixted.