North Korea reportedly has attacked a South Korean ship, which is sinking. It will be interesting to see the response from both Seoul and Washington. I wonder if they’d have done this if John McCain were in the White House? This may be one of those tests of Obama that Joe Biden warned us about.
14 thoughts on “Provocation”
Comments are closed.
At least North Korea waited until we passed health care “reform”.
Does this mean that the NK leadership has decided it needs a war of distraction?
This administration will show support by sending out for Korean BBQ to be delivered to the WH staff offices. Then, they’ll stick us with the tab.
As usual.
I expect the South Koreans will want to open talks about future talks.
Obama will bow, blame it on Israel and extol his health care bill.
This is the second Korean naval clash in Obama’s presidency, and the 4th since 1999. Last year’s clash resulted in a North Korean ship sinking.
Since the South lost a boat, I expect they’ll be a naval retaliation – probably Harpoon attack on a Northern boat (their old ships don’t have good anti-missile defences).
I wonder if they’d have done this if John McCain were in the White House?
Probably. I mean, what was the US going to do about it in any case?
Sanctions? Hah. Nothing to trade, and China’s not going to shut off the pipelines.
Invade? HAH.
Thanks for the reminder Chris, I had forgotten about that one.
I’m wondering what’s holding China back?
Ken Anthony – China doesn’t want to get flooded by Korean refugees if the regime collapses. Actually, neither does the South – they noticed that Germany took an economic hit absorbing the East, which was in vastly better shape.
Still trying to figure out what NK get’s out of this. If it was deliberate (as in the command came from on high), I’m not sure what they gain beyond a distraction.
From what little I can find, there’s still no confirmation that the North sank the ship or how. Ship explosions are rare but they can happen. The report of a hole in the bottom of the ship could be from an internal explosion, a mine, or a torpedo. We just don’t know at this point.
The North Korean government is whacked and the Republic of Korea (ROK) military has a well-earned reputation for toughness. This could get very ugly.
It’s possible the Cheonan could have hit a mine, or could have crossed a demarcation line triggering an automatic response. It’s gotta be pretty unlikely that Kim Jong Il would pick now to start a war. The NK army is badly outmatched by the ROK army alone, never mind any resources we’d commit, and the North is in the midst of both a famine and a slow motion regime change (handing off power to Kim Jong Il’s son). I think that this is probably less than first reports make it out to be.
And if I’m wrong, the ROK will react very, very angrily.
When I was out eating lunch earlier I saw on the TV in the restaurant, which had Fox News playing, that South Korea was down playing the incident. Sound was turned down but that was what I could make out on the ticker scrolling on the bottom of the screen.
NK would be insane to be starting a war alone with SK without outside help from one (or more) of the great powers. Their military hardware is mostly obsolete. It is pretty clear (to me at least) who would win the war. NK has a lot of artillery and mid range missiles… that’s about it. They can threaten to blow up Seoul, but in case of total war SK has better tanks, airplanes, whatever. As for navy, SK has like some of the largest naval construction yards in the world. Hah.