25 thoughts on “A Stunning Self Portrait”

  2. Virgin Galactic and the limited ISS tourism so far already give us two data points.

  3. The real test will be when VG and the others actually become operational. ISS tourism is very instructive in that even at the 20-30 million dollar level, there is a market for it.

  4. I am in the market for a LEO layover in the same way that I am in the market for a Lamborghini Murcielago. I can’t come close to affording either, so can I really be said to be contributing to demand?

  5. Yeah, we’re not completely without data points. But the two or three points we have don’t really flesh out the curve.

    txhsdad – well, yes. Some people will take a space flight or buy a Lambo just to impress the neighbors. You’re the neighbor to be impressed.

  6. can I really be said to be contributing to demand?

    I’d say when the price point gets to a point where you could afford it, yes.

    Those be pretty pricey peppers.

    Totally top-value tomatoes.

    Very valuable veggies.

  7. …a question for the enlightened economists among us.

    Considering how much it costs, how can they have fresh veggies delivered? Hint: private enterprise, operating for profit, will do the same.

  8. BTW, that price point is already here… or would someone like you not pay $5 or so for a lottery ticket to ride?

  10. Here’s a question following up ken’s: We’ve been on the ISS for years now — why can’t we grow the veggies up there already!? Wouldn’t that be, like, one of the important things to learn how to do if we’re serious about travelling long distances in space?

  11. Ken,
    A lottery is a good idea, but you’d have to sprinkle in some lesser prizes too, so that the chances are better for the ticket buyer. I’m thinking maybe a tour of the launch or production areas, stuff like that.

  12. …or would someone like you not pay $5 or so for a lottery ticket to ride?

    Hey I have an idea, let’s have a lottery for tickets that could be exchanged for a ride to low earth orbit!!! We could call the tickets uhhhhhh, hang on it’s coming to me, uhhhhh MONEY!

    We already have what you suggest, and guess what? Winners choose not to exchange their “tickets” for a ride. There’s your demand

  13. At least one person tried to start a lottery for a ride and got shut down. As in jailed. I don’t know the details, but as I remember he was an okay bloke who just wanted to help and look what happened to him.

    And think about this: just because you can’t afford something now doesn’t mean you won’t be able to buy it in the future. I never thought I’d have a flat screen teevee of my very own, either.

  14. More people might be willing to buy a ride into orbit if it didn’t involve living, breathing, sleeping, speaking and eating in Russian for six months of their busy lives.

  15. We’ve been on the ISS for years now — why can’t we grow the veggies up there already!? Wouldn’t that be, like, one of the important things to learn how to do if we’re serious about travelling long distances in space?

    Excellent point. That NASA isn’t trying to grow veggies on ISS is to me one more data-point to indicate that either they aren’t really serious about long term human spaceflight or they’re simply incompetent.

  16. Here’s a question following up ken’s: We’ve been on the ISS for years now — why can’t we grow the veggies up there already!?

    ISS has not been able to do much science until recently because it has been under constant assembly. The station requires 2.5 crewmembers just to maintain it, so there has been little consistent crew hours available for science until the point where a crew of six could be accommodated. There was some science planned that was doable with a crew of three, but when cost overruns occurred, completion of assembly got prioritized ahead of the early science. That is sensible – without the station’s power, thermal management, and lab space infrastructure, there would have been few resources available to devote to science anyway, so it would have made little sense to fund experiments that would never get flown due to lack of lab space, or be flown up to the station and never powered on because of lack of power and thermal infrastructure.

    There have been small-scale plant growth experiments on ISS, but to actually grow substantial food crops would have required a lot more power, which hasn’t been available until recently.

  17. We already have what you suggest, and guess what? Winners choose not to exchange their “tickets” for a ride. There’s your demand

    Brian, the flaw in your argument is so obvious I’m surprised you didn’t realize it before posting.

    Prizes are announced before you buy a ticket. If say $20m is the prize, millions of people buy tickets and only one [or few] person(s) wins.

    What is the chance that one in many millions wants to go to orbit vs. live off the money?

    Instead you have a lottery where the prize is a trip to orbit. Now everybody buying that ticket is getting a chance at something they want (they are what is called self selecting.)

    Got it?

    The demand exists. Your example says nothing about it.

  18. The station requires 2.5 crewmembers just to maintain it

    Now I realize the complexity of ISS, but you would also think we would have learned a few things about reliability over the years so that we could build a station that was not so labor intensive.

    How are we ever going to be able to build a spacecraft that can make a 2-3 year round trip to Mars that doesn’t need a source of spare parts ~250 miles away and a full time maintenance crew?

  19. You overbuild with lots of redundancy. If you want a dozen crew and passengers you provide for two dozen. Half a dozen or more habitat modules rather than one big one (each with it’s own dual life support.) Lot’s of engines with all but one down capability. Multiple small fuel tanks rather than two big tanks.

    $2b to orbit ready to go… Seven BA330, 27 Merlin C engines, etc.

  21. Now I realize the complexity of ISS, but you would also think we would have learned a few things about reliability over the years so that we could build a station that was not so labor intensive.

    You don’t learn about reliability “over the years”, you learn by doing. ISS is the first station designed by the US since Skylab. The shuttle was short-duration. There had been essentially nothing learned about long-duration reliability in the interim.

  22. you learn by doing

    Exactly. Put another way, you learn by breaking things (everything eventually breaks.)

  23. “and you don’t go for the lowest bidder. ”

    High bids don’t guarantee quality.

  25. Here’s my $5, where’s my ticket? Heck, I’ll even put down $20 for four chances to take that trip!

    Oh, yeah, there’s a market. Some of us have been waiting far too long. I just hope I live long enough to see it (at least start) to happen.

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