…for SpaceX. And they’ve rolled it out to the pad, and erected it.
It’s now less than forty-eight hours until their first opportunity, at 8 AM Pacific. On later flights, when they have to go to ISS, they’ll have a tight launch window (ten minutes more or less, depending on how much performance margin they have), but for the first couple flights at least, there’s no target they’re aiming at in space, so they can go any time within the window provide by the range (four hours, I think, on each day). As Clark notes, while I won’t be surprised if they’re successful (nor will I be surprised if they’re not, on this first launch), I will be surprised if they actually launch at 8 AM on Friday. I suspect that they’ll be operating on a hair trigger when it comes to anomalies that can delay them. There is a lot riding on success (and for those defending the old regime, a lot riding on their failure).
I’m looking forward to their success, but agree they’ll do well to be cautious. In fact, they would do well not to try for 8am PDT. There’s only a little bravado to be gained by saying “we launched right on time” for the first flight. Far more bravado to be gained by saying “we had a safe successful first flight”. When they get to passenger service, they can brag about on time departures…
whats sad is given how low the odds of success are, why they didn’t do a stage test first. launch a dummy second stage like ares 1-x and help chase bugs out of the first stage
No, what’s sad is what a moron “Jack Lee” is, though he persists in advertising it here, even though he was banned.
How idiotic Jack. Time has a cost which you are totally ignoring.
I’d wager saturday is launch day. They will likely have a number of holds friday. Then it will be a complete success…
which is defined as collecting all the data they intend to collect.
Well, Wernher von Braun knew a thing or two about rockets and he was all about incrementalism and that included suborbital tests of just a first stage. But during today’s teleconference Ken Bowersox reportedly said it was cheaper to do a test flight than a full-fledged vacuum chamber test of the 2nd stage engine.
A vacuum test chamber for such a high thrust engine should be really expensive. I doubt there are many such facilities worldwide.
Given that SpaceX has done several static tests of the first stage engines, plus first stage hold down tests in the actual launch site, risk for the first stage has been substantially reduced. The second stage engine uses much the same parts as the first stage engines. Plus they did static testing of the second stage (albeit in standard atmosphere and pressure). The largest unknown quantity in the second stage engine is probably the nozzle.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed during the launch tomorrow.
Well, Wernher von Braun knew a thing or two about rockets and he was all about incrementalism and that included suborbital tests of just a first stage.
True for some of the earlier rockets but not for the Saturn V. The Saturn V’s first flight was Apollo 4 and it was an all-up test.
That was George Mueller’s decision, von Braun wanted to do it the old way.
As long as it doesn’t blow up on the pad, I’ll call it a success!