15 thoughts on “Virgin Propulsion Update”

  1. I saw something wher SpaceDev commented on testing the Dream Chaser engine.

    Isn’t it the same one that SS2 uses?

  3. Yeah, that’s the 5 burn tests in the report. I think they’re honestly going to do 10 tests and then put it on the glider… Rutan has been quoted as saying that they’re going to do 50 to 100 flight tests with the engine before paying customers fly on it. So yeah, from a traditional rocket testing perspective – they’re crazy. But from an airplane test perspective – they’re slightly less crazy 😛

  4. The propulsion issue illustrates one of the major problems with prizes, especially poorly structures ones, and the is the rush to win the prize encourages firms to make sub-optimal technical decisions that results in problems and technical dead ends in the long run.

    And yes, Spirit of St. Louis is the prime example. The Spirit of St. Louis was nothing more then a modified Ryan mail plane, with extra weight stripped out and stuffed with fuel tanks, including the elimination of the windshield by placing a fuel tank in front of the cockpit. Nothing technical transferred to operational trans-Atlantic aircraft which owed their existence to the flying boats and heavy bombers being developed by the military. i.e government projects. I expected RLV will follow a similar technical path with little technology from Spaceshipone being used beyond VG.

  5. The prizes are important because they show you can do it and provide real world learning experience. They attract people into the area (entrepreneurs and investors). After the challenge has been won, you can redesign a new system using lessons learned from the old system. You can only progress on solving unknown problems by muddling through things.

  6. Godzilla,

    [[[They attract people into the area (entrepreneurs and investors).]]]

    And how many of the 25 teams in the X-Prize are still in the game? And how many investors have been scared off by having to compete with deep pockets like Richard Branson? Or having seen the high failure rate?

  7. “And how many of the 25 teams in the X-Prize are still in the game? And how many investors have been scared off by having to compete with deep pockets like Richard Branson? Or having seen the high failure rate?”

    Besides Scaled Composites there is also Armadillo Aerospace and ARCA, although both companies are clearly going for other opportunities than trying to necessarily get a sub-orbital commercial tourism market going. Then again, Armadillo did sign an agreement with Space Adventures to undercut Virgin Galactic with flights for about half of the cost of Virgin. Other groups like TGV and Starchaser (out of the UK) are still going strong as well.

    Perhaps the largest disappointment to me is the collapse of the da Vinci project… so promising yet so far from actually getting much accomplished. They seemed to have completely dropped off the radar after Scaled Composites won.

    Yes, there have been some spectacular failures from some of the original X-Prize teams, but it isn’t as bad as you’d think and certainly there has been some continued momentum resulting from the original “Ansari X-Prize”. One of the most beneficial things that came from that contest was the legislation that firmly established the FAA-AST as the primary authority for commercial spaceflight activities. In other words, NASA no longer was the lead agency for non-governmental civilian spaceflight efforts. That seems like a good thing to me. Members of Congress stopped giggling long enough to pass some meaningful laws about how non-government rockets ought to be regulated. Robert Bigelow certainly wouldn’t be selling is space stations if it wasn’t for at least something resembling a non-government financed commercial spaceflight industry.

  9. Robert,

    [[[Perhaps the largest disappointment to me is the collapse of the da Vinci project… so promising yet so far from actually getting much accomplished.]]]

    Somehow its difficult to imagine a balloon launched rocket being a practical solution to the RLV problem. Armadillo Aerospace has indeed gone in a different direction, which is good that they recovered from the distraction of the X-Prize, while the other firms mentioned really haven’t moved much beyond where they were during the X-Prize, mostly view graphs and hope for funding.

    Also there is some question if Paul Allen or Richard Branson would have funded Burt Rutan without the X-Prize. I suspect one or the other would have as both had a strong interest in spaceflight and Burt Rutan had a track record. And without the time pressure of the X-Prize Burt Rutan could have done a proper flight test program of Spaceshipone, something that he is paying for today. As it is the X-Prize just encouraged Richard Branson to hang back seeing if someone would win.

    As for Bigelow, his interest is independent of the X-Prize and if anything the lack of progress on orbital systems by new space has been a negative for his plans. He is still waiting on a commerical HSF solution to orbit.

    The changes to the Commercial Space Acts would have moved forward without the X-Prize. There was far more driving them then the X-Prize.

    As a side note, I don’t expect to see any SpaceshipThree for VG. The delays by Burt Rutan that are frustrating Richard Branson pretty much kill any hopes for a future partnership. Instead I expect Richard Branson will just cut a deal with SpaceX (or maybe Boeing) to use the Dragon for VG orbital flights and have VG to buy a Bigelow habitat for a destination. He would probably be doing that now if not entangled with Spaceshiptwo. Spaceshiptwo will be pretty much the end of the line for the impact of the X-Prize on space commerce.

  10. Spaceshiptwo will be pretty much the end of the line for the impact of the X-Prize on space commerce.

    Not if it establishes a market for suborbital flight that will bring in funding for orbital flight as well as helping to discover the demand curve.

  11. MPM,

    Other firms not involved in the X-Prize are already doing it, both for sub-orbital tourism and the larger markets beyond tourists. Provided of course that Spaceshiptwo is not a failure, either technically or economically, poisoning the investment environment.

  12. Not all of it can be contributed to the X-Prize, but I do think it was a catalyst. It led to a demonstration that suborbital private spaceflight was a possibility. It also demonstrated that such a thing could get a lot of media attention, reflecting latent demand, given sufficiently low prices. Both of these helped generate new investment. So the X-Prize itself generated more investment, which led to SS1, which led to even more investment, which led to VG and SS2. I’m looking forward to similar prizes for tiny RLVs.

  13. MPM,

    The problem with media attention, (i.e. Hype) is that it leads to false expectations as well as attention from those you don’t want it from. Eco-nuts for example.

    Tell me, which will make it easier for eco-nuts to get regulations that will strangle sub-orbital ventures? The argument that joy rides by millionaires are damaging the atmosphere or the argument that sub-orbital research flights are damaging the environment? The first implies no value to society worth any level of damage, the latter does imply a trade space might exist.

  15. Well, companies tend to court hype and are thrilled to get it. Maybe they are wrong and maybe they need to hire you as a marketing consultant. 😉 Or on the other hand, maybe you’re just a little bit too fond of the Tennessee Valley Authority model…

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