The Fragility Of Complex Societies

Thoughts from Victor Davis Hanson:

I don’t know quite why many of our environmentalists and urban planners wish to emulate such patterns of settlement (OK, I do know), since for us in America it would be a matter of choice, rather than, as in a highly congested Japan, one of necessity. Putting us in apartments and high rises, reliant on buses and trains, and dependent on huge centralized power, water, and sewage grids are recipes not for ecological utopia, but for a level of dependence and vulnerability that could only lead to disaster. Again, I understand that in terms of efficiency of resource utilization, such densities make sense and I grant that culture sparks where people are, but in times of calamity these regimens prove enormously fragile and a fool’s bargain.

Actually, many of them do favor decentralization and “appropriate” technology. But most of them also favor depopulation. And some of those favor it by whatever means are necessary.

7 thoughts on “The Fragility Of Complex Societies”

  1. Whether the bitter clingers have died in a natural disaster or are merely locked up in the tenements because the trains don’t run anywhere else, the gentry liberals’ communing with the Goddess in Yellowstone, at the Grand Canyon, or off Martha’s Vinyard will be undisturbed by the ruck and their brats.

  2. That’s a good essay. I was thinking along similar lines while watching Japan. How this vaunted reliance on high-speed rail meant that when the relatively fragile and precision high-speed rail lotus flower crumped up in the muddy wave, it simply stranded millions who had no cars, no nearby smelly trucks to commandeer, and not even the habit of getting home on their own initiative. I wonder how many could not even be sure of the compass direction of home, because they knew it only as a stop on the rail line? (Probably few — I exaggerate, I am sure, but perhaps by less than one might hope.)

    I was also pondering the cultural “centralization” of Japan, the government knows best attitude that seeps into a people over the generations, and make it hard for them to spontaneously organize in the wake of disaster, recover their Neanderthal can-do must-do spirit and save themselves. I wonder to what extent all this letting of your betters prescribe your driving habits, education, appliance choice, et cetera, enervates a people, reduces them to dependency so that when the barbarians appear at the gate, or the volcano erupts, you sink without a trace.

    But this is hardly a novel thesis, of course.

  3. Funny how we see what we want to see.

    I’ve been watching the coverage of recovery along that coast, away from the nuclear crisis. What is very clear is that the Japanese bond together well in communities, also that people are helping each other to clean up without waiting for the central government to send aid. They don’t appear “enervated” at all, just shell-shocked by the disaster.

    I have lived through such a region-wide trauma, Loma Prieta. There are short-term psychological impacts of a natural disaster, and they don’t respect economic theories, religious boundaries or anything else. I know that vacant stare that we see in some interviews. I saw it in my mirror, and in quite a few self-reliant American faces.

    Try to imagine how you would feel, and react in the early days, if a wall of water swept away the town you live in, and about half of the people in it.

  4. As for the deeper questions posed by that quote from V.D. Hanson:
    He is grossly misinterpreting what some of the environmentalists and civic planners are trying to accomplish.
    The most sustainable and pleasant human communities are medium-size, not huge conglomerations of high-rise towers. Those are a failed model and Mr. Hanson is arguing with a Straw Man.
    I notice he doesn’t actually quote anyone – a key ‘tell’ of a straw man fallacy in progress.

  5. I used to work on a production stop response team for a major semi-conductor manufacturer. On several occasions the fabs in Japan would would call needing assistance because of some issue causing a disruption in manufacturing. Never would it be just one person calling to report the problem, though. Generally you’d get a call from an already in progress conference call that already had 15 people in it. And if you asked a question or requested that they do some process on their end to help resolve the issue you’d never get just one person to immediately come forward and take the lone initiative. I would usually get a, “uhhhhhhhh hold second please…” Then, about 5-15 minutes of what sounds like 5 people talking at the same time. One will eventually turn back around and give the final verdict of the collaborative brainstorming. Then, of course if that response needed further clarification it would immediately be, “uhhhhhh hold one second please.” And the chatter would start back up again amongst the group.

    I would say that Japanese people generally tackle issues in a group effort or hive mind mentality. Rarely do you see one person take the ‘lead’ but rather one person will serve as the mouthpiece for the greater groups combined desire. Now, I think there are some definite benefits to approaching issues in this manner because it generates thoughtfully well reasoned responses. Buuuut, it is not an expeditious method of decisive problem/conflict resolution. I’ve seen American management pulling their hair out when dealing with their Japanese counterparts because, “It’s just a simple yes/no question, JEEZ!” As they are off on their own, chitter chattering for 10 minutes only to eventually come back and simply say, “Yes.” It’s just been my experience that you rarely see a Japanese person stand up and say, “Okay this is what we need to have happen…” then pound the table as they belt out orders. I think we may be seeing some of this paralysis by committee particularly with the initial response to getting power back up and running to the power plants cooling system.

  6. Pssht, give me a break, Kev. Japanese people are people, eh? Of course they generally respond with initiative, empathy and courage to disaster. Who wouldn’t, eh? And speaking of straw men, let us not take an observation to ludicrous extremes — I certainly did not suggest every single Japanese sarariman sat around an upturned box mimicking the conference table, paralyzed until the Emperor could issue commands. Breathe in, Ohashi-san. Now out.

    It’s a perfectly reasonable question to ask to what degree a political system, and more importantly a social mode of thinking, does and does not on average enervate individual initiative, if only moderately. Just cast your mind back to the different responses of New Orleans and neighboring Mississippi after Katrina, or even the enterprising response of your Japanese and the often passive and fatalistic response of the Haitians to their earthquake.

  7. I have lived through such a region-wide trauma, Loma Prieta.

    Unless your house in the Marina burned down, or someone you know was crushed on the Nimitz, that seems a wee precious. I lived in Oakland during the Loma Prieta, and I didn’t consider the new crack in my wall and the breakables that jumped to their deaths off the bookshelf any kind of “trauma.” It certainly is a long way from your entire neighborhood being swept into the sea.

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