I would never have put money on their launching on February 7th, the current official target date, and now my instincts are confirmed with a brief release from the company:
In preparation for the upcoming launch, SpaceX continues to conduct extensive testing and analysis.
We believe that there are a few areas that will benefit from additional work and will optimize the safety and success of this mission.
We are now working with NASA to establish a new target launch date, but note that we will continue to test and review data. We will launch when the vehicle is ready.
Hard to know if that means a week delay, or a month, or more. But it’s definitely better not to rush it; it’s a very important mission for the future of affordable spaceflight.
Whenever it happens I expect it will be a good news story for a day.
Rule of thumb for flight test schedule slips: take whatever elapsed time you estimate from now until launch assuming no glitches, and double it. One week becomes two weeks. One year becomes two.
So, Feb 7th is three weeks from tomorrow. I would guess 29 February.
Just so long as it doesn’t follow the Programmer’s Time Estimation Algorithm:
When your boss presents you with a programming assignment and asks for an estimate on how long it’ll take to complete, you take the first number that pops into your mind, double the digits and go to the next higher unit. E.g. “3 weeks” becomes “6 months.” You know your boss will cut the time to something like 2 or 3 months but you’re better off than if you mentioned the original estimate. That’s how you earn your reputation as a miracle worker!
There was a similar scene in The Road Warrior.
I can’t find it on YouTube, but from memory it went something like this:
Leader: How long will it take to fix that vehicle?
Mechanic (quietly, to assistant): A couple hours.
Assistant, to Leader: It will take 24 hours.
Leader: You’ve got 12!
Mechanic: OK.