Romney, by a huge landslide. Polling done among family and friends. As well as a ‘sight’ poll, accomplished by me just looking for Obama / Biden stickers, signs or commercials.
There is only one poll that matters at this point, it is on Tuesday, and we should encourage our friends and allies who haven’t turned in Absentee Ballots to vote because this is The Big One.
Lots of Tea Partiers who considered themselves Republicans in 2008, consider themselves Independents today. That’s why the D vs. R party id numbers favor the Democrats in these polls; not because Ds are up, but because Rs are down. That’s also why Romney is winning Independents; he was going to win those Tea Party voters regardless of what they decided to call themselves.
8. Motive
Fox News isn’t out there with Gallup and Rasmussen; what’s their motive for making things look good for Obama?
Rasmussen does nothing but poll, but it can still be very wrong. Its final poll had Ohio tied in 2008; Obama won by 5 points. It had a 4% GOP lean in the 2010 races; other pollsters with supposedly suspect motives performed much better.
Poll averages perform better than individual polls, and Obama (barely) leads in the poll averages. State polls perform better than national polls, and Obama leads in the state polls that matter. Even when a poll has a particular tilt, its trend over time is informative, and same-poll results have been moving towards Obama.
It’s still very close, and either candidate could win, but at this point the Romney campaign would be happy to swap poll numbers with Obama.
R’s are way up compared to 2008. You need to turn your graph over.
8. Rasmussen does nothing but poll, but it can still be very wrong. Its final poll had Ohio tied in 2008; Obama won by 5 points. It had a 4% GOP lean in the 2010 races; other pollsters with supposedly suspect motives performed much better.
Rassmussen uses a tight screen for likely voters, which in 2008 would’ve rejected a lot of Obama voters who did go out and vote because they were highly motivated. Now it’s the Republicans who are highly motivated and the Democrats who are demoralized, so the same screening would be masking a Republican shift, not overstating one.
As Turner said, you have your voter IDs wrong. People have been fleeing from the Democrat name just like Republicans did during the end of the Bush years. The +D in poll respondents is not reflective of how many people identify as Democrat in relation to the population.
What would those poll averages look like without the heavy weighting of Democrats?
The polls would be a lot different if Obama’s palace guard made a reasonable attempt at being journalists instead of journolists.
For 2010, a pre-election column by Scott Rasmussen projected that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. Nearly final results show the Republicans will end up with more than 60 House seats and 47 or 48 Senate seats.
Rasmussen over-estimated at most one Senator and still underestimated by several the number of Republican House pick-ups.
Romney, by a huge landslide. Polling done among family and friends. As well as a ‘sight’ poll, accomplished by me just looking for Obama / Biden stickers, signs or commercials.
Stick a fork in The One, he’s done.
There is only one poll that matters at this point, it is on Tuesday, and we should encourage our friends and allies who haven’t turned in Absentee Ballots to vote because this is The Big One.
2. Romney’s Winning Independents
Lots of Tea Partiers who considered themselves Republicans in 2008, consider themselves Independents today. That’s why the D vs. R party id numbers favor the Democrats in these polls; not because Ds are up, but because Rs are down. That’s also why Romney is winning Independents; he was going to win those Tea Party voters regardless of what they decided to call themselves.
8. Motive
Fox News isn’t out there with Gallup and Rasmussen; what’s their motive for making things look good for Obama?
Rasmussen does nothing but poll, but it can still be very wrong. Its final poll had Ohio tied in 2008; Obama won by 5 points. It had a 4% GOP lean in the 2010 races; other pollsters with supposedly suspect motives performed much better.
Poll averages perform better than individual polls, and Obama (barely) leads in the poll averages. State polls perform better than national polls, and Obama leads in the state polls that matter. Even when a poll has a particular tilt, its trend over time is informative, and same-poll results have been moving towards Obama.
It’s still very close, and either candidate could win, but at this point the Romney campaign would be happy to swap poll numbers with Obama.
Still whistling past that graveyard.
R’s are way up compared to 2008. You need to turn your graph over.
Rassmussen uses a tight screen for likely voters, which in 2008 would’ve rejected a lot of Obama voters who did go out and vote because they were highly motivated. Now it’s the Republicans who are highly motivated and the Democrats who are demoralized, so the same screening would be masking a Republican shift, not overstating one.
As Turner said, you have your voter IDs wrong. People have been fleeing from the Democrat name just like Republicans did during the end of the Bush years. The +D in poll respondents is not reflective of how many people identify as Democrat in relation to the population.
What would those poll averages look like without the heavy weighting of Democrats?
The polls would be a lot different if Obama’s palace guard made a reasonable attempt at being journalists instead of journolists.
It’s still very close, and either candidate could win, but at this point the Romney campaign would be happy to swap poll numbers with Obama.,/i>
I doubt it.
This is an extremely odd year. I’ve never seen an election where each side was so convinced it would win.
Now it’s the Republicans who are highly motivated and the Democrats who are demoralized
Rasmussen’s LV screen resulted in a 4 point GOP lean in 2010, when Republicans were more motivated, and Dems more demoralized, than today.
For 2010, a pre-election column by Scott Rasmussen projected that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. Nearly final results show the Republicans will end up with more than 60 House seats and 47 or 48 Senate seats.
Rasmussen over-estimated at most one Senator and still underestimated by several the number of Republican House pick-ups.
Call it a wash Jim and call his weight accurate.
9% Response rate. 3% in some state polls.
Climate science is more competent.
Landslide.
Romney.