It may be as revolutionary as cars themselves were.
18 thoughts on “Driverless Cars”
He misses some important ones.
1. Elimination of individual ownership of cars. Why own a car when one will appear when requested? Plus if the driver doesn’t own a car they won’t be able to modify it to do “illegal” activities, like drive off road on BLM land, so getting rid of private ownership will be something governments will likely encourage with very high registration fees and requirements.
2. Elimination of the current variety of styles, colors and model years. If all cars are owned by a handful of corporations there will be no reason to make them stylish or to reflect different individual life styles. Think of a world only full of “yellow cabs” of different sizes. Remember when Ma Bell owned the telephone in your home before deregulation? You had a choice of two styles, and a few functional colors and they were hard wired into the wall. And those old phones weren’t built for looks, but built to be indestructible, like “yellow cabs” were, which was good as it was illegal for you to fix it if anything went wrong, you had to wait for good old Ma Bell to send someone. Good bye auto industry as we know it.
3. Elimination of garages. If individuals don’t own autos there will be no justification for garages on homes. Especially as those garages may be hiding dangerous non-robocars owned by anti-social rebels…
4. A huge decline in demand for gasoline, as mostly likely a lot of the new robocars will be electric since they will be used most often for short urban trips. Also I expect the fare structure will favor car pooling to maximize income for the owning corporations and reduce congestion on road ways, further reducing demand. Yes, the climate change folks will likely be strong advocates for it to reduce CO2 and “save” the Earth 🙂
5. Elimination of much of the infrastructure for private automobiles – gas stations, garages, auto parts. They won’t be needed since most robocars will be owned and maintained by a handful of corporations at central locations.
6. Good bye motorcycles. Motorcycles won’t have any more advantage for commuting, and allow “free stylers” to ride them on roads full of robocars would be too disruptive. Good bye Harley-Davidson and the rebel culture it inspires.
7. Also I expect a major change in the mobility habits of the American population. Given that you will be charged for every trip there will be a tendency to minimize them and spend more time at home. And the ability of robocars to serve as delivery vehicles will make home delivery of many products more affordable as well. So expect a similar decline restaurants, especially fast food (good bye McDonalds), theaters, etc.
Of course that explains Google’s self-interest. The more time folks spend at home, the more time online, the more revenue for Google 🙂
However what is good for Google would not be good for the U.S. economy. Hmmm, it would probably be possible to measure the huge negative hit on U.S. GDP from the above list.
8. Taxi companies will file legal challenges as an attack on their livelihoods,
and last but not least,
9. If you are being pursued by these rough-looking guys trying to kill you, if you get into a driverless car and order it to “Drive! Just drive!” in a thick Austrian accent, the car will just sit there.
1. Elimination of individual ownership of cars.
LOL! In America?! Trolling, or batshit insanity. I invoke Poe’s Law.
Please elaborate. It’s not unusual in urban areas all over the world for residents to not own cars, as they can always summon transportation whenever they need it.
I’m very skeptical that autonomous cars I’ll be anything more than an intresting research project for quite a long time. Real world road conditions, the cost/reliability of sensors and the lack of true artificial intelligence will hamper the transition of driverless cars from the research lab to the showroom. At best, cruise control will evolve towards greater autonomous control in limited driving conditions., but such capabilities won’t be as nearly revolutionary as the article suggests.
I’m not at all convinced that SDCs mean the death of car ownership. People still need to get from point A to point B on their own timetable; how do SDCs solve this without ownership? Otherwise we’d just take taxicabs everywhere now. How do taxi SDCs end up cheaper than today’s taxis?
I still believe that adoption of SDCs will be driven by the realization that traffic density on all-SDC freeways can be quadrupled (at least), so cities will mandate rush hours to be SDC-only. The DC area already has roads that are one way into the area in the AM, and one way out of the are in the PM; not too far from that to driver-free zones. I expect this to start happening in the 2030 timeframe.
Some of the trends cited are already happening, driven by the increasing computerization of the auto. I did essentially all of the maintenance on my first two cars (getting me through about age 27), but I haven’t even changed my own oil in years – less time and less tinkerer-friendly tech in cars being the driver in the change. SDCs may accelerate some of that but aren’t the root cause.
Well, I did change the valve-cover gasket in the BMW the other week after getting a quote of $500 for someone else to do it.
How do taxi SDCs end up cheaper than today’s taxis?
A big part of today’s taxi fares is income for the driver, and SDCs dispense with that. One hopes that SDCs would also lead to the end of regulations that limit the number of taxis on the road, and with a greater supply you’d get lower prices.
I believe Mr. Matula has, sadly, hit the nail on the head. Given the trajectory of individual liberty after 9/11, I’d say that the days of enjoying the freedom of driving where, when and whatever you like are numbered. It’s one of the last endeavors which allow a sense of freedom left these days.
(hopefully I formatted these okay, iPad is not quite as useful as a PC)
I see I got beat to that comment anyway … 🙂
Beat you by 27 minutes. 🙂
It will likely reduce the number of cars on the road and the cost of ownership through timeshare ownership. 95% of the time my car is either in my driveway or the company lot. I if I shared ownership, it could take 2 or more other people to work. This factor alone will drive a lot of car companie out of business (pun intended).
I think it’s even worse than the first post suggests.
Think of the massive loss of jobs. I mean the people who fix vehicles, sell parts, you know: truly productive and skilled individuals who don’t just push paper or beat on keyboards for a living.
How about small business, that typically use light trucks for landscaping/small appliance repair/etc. They now have either vehicles that are much more expensive to maintain, or they’ve gotten another big fixed cost in the form of a robot truck lease.
Small brick and mortar biz? GONE. Who the h**l is going to pay a fee to have a robot taxi to go 2 miles to the train store to buy their kid another used $2 HO car for his set? I do it now for my 6 y/o, and keep Rodney’s second hand train store in business. It’ll be Ebay or Amazon, or probably nothing, because I work for a refinery.
I’ll just be a government dependent, because it’ll be me against all the other unemployed, looking for a job to do what, exactly? Robot delivery cars will bring your stuff to you, instead of hauling your carcass around.
Kiss small town life goodbye too. If walking is the only form of non-fee transportation, coastal megacities and lots of flyover wilderness is the endgame. Agenda 21 anyone?
Think of the massive loss of jobs.
It isn’t unprecedented. Think of all the people who lost horse, oxen and railroad jobs when cars came in. And think of all the farm workers who lost jobs when farmer productivity soared — most Americans used to work on farms, and now it’s under 2 percent.
all the other unemployed, looking for a job to do what, exactly?
If we spend less on cars, we’ll spend more on other things. That spending will generate new jobs, though the specifics are hard to predict.
A technological advance that makes the country richer as a whole will typically leave some unlucky people poorer. The new wealth gives us the option of cushioning that blow with a stronger safety net.
Air traffic today is heavily regulated and controlled by orders and flight plans under the government’s thumb, and trying to bring ordinary citizens’ commutes under that regulatory umbrella would be a Herculean undertaking. But if you start with the assumption that the car is a machine that already reflexively follows orders and patterns, the potential for three-dimensional roads becomes a lot less scary and more a matter of simply solving the technological challenge.
If you started the FAA on that today, they would get around to issuing the first rule by about February 2214.
He misses some important ones.
1. Elimination of individual ownership of cars. Why own a car when one will appear when requested? Plus if the driver doesn’t own a car they won’t be able to modify it to do “illegal” activities, like drive off road on BLM land, so getting rid of private ownership will be something governments will likely encourage with very high registration fees and requirements.
2. Elimination of the current variety of styles, colors and model years. If all cars are owned by a handful of corporations there will be no reason to make them stylish or to reflect different individual life styles. Think of a world only full of “yellow cabs” of different sizes. Remember when Ma Bell owned the telephone in your home before deregulation? You had a choice of two styles, and a few functional colors and they were hard wired into the wall. And those old phones weren’t built for looks, but built to be indestructible, like “yellow cabs” were, which was good as it was illegal for you to fix it if anything went wrong, you had to wait for good old Ma Bell to send someone. Good bye auto industry as we know it.
3. Elimination of garages. If individuals don’t own autos there will be no justification for garages on homes. Especially as those garages may be hiding dangerous non-robocars owned by anti-social rebels…
4. A huge decline in demand for gasoline, as mostly likely a lot of the new robocars will be electric since they will be used most often for short urban trips. Also I expect the fare structure will favor car pooling to maximize income for the owning corporations and reduce congestion on road ways, further reducing demand. Yes, the climate change folks will likely be strong advocates for it to reduce CO2 and “save” the Earth 🙂
5. Elimination of much of the infrastructure for private automobiles – gas stations, garages, auto parts. They won’t be needed since most robocars will be owned and maintained by a handful of corporations at central locations.
6. Good bye motorcycles. Motorcycles won’t have any more advantage for commuting, and allow “free stylers” to ride them on roads full of robocars would be too disruptive. Good bye Harley-Davidson and the rebel culture it inspires.
7. Also I expect a major change in the mobility habits of the American population. Given that you will be charged for every trip there will be a tendency to minimize them and spend more time at home. And the ability of robocars to serve as delivery vehicles will make home delivery of many products more affordable as well. So expect a similar decline restaurants, especially fast food (good bye McDonalds), theaters, etc.
Of course that explains Google’s self-interest. The more time folks spend at home, the more time online, the more revenue for Google 🙂
However what is good for Google would not be good for the U.S. economy. Hmmm, it would probably be possible to measure the huge negative hit on U.S. GDP from the above list.
Why own a jet ski when you can just rent one?
Maybe I’ll just have to go out and drive that car in my uncle’s garage….
8. Taxi companies will file legal challenges as an attack on their livelihoods,
and last but not least,
9. If you are being pursued by these rough-looking guys trying to kill you, if you get into a driverless car and order it to “Drive! Just drive!” in a thick Austrian accent, the car will just sit there.
1. Elimination of individual ownership of cars.
LOL! In America?! Trolling, or batshit insanity. I invoke Poe’s Law.
Please elaborate. It’s not unusual in urban areas all over the world for residents to not own cars, as they can always summon transportation whenever they need it.
I’m very skeptical that autonomous cars I’ll be anything more than an intresting research project for quite a long time. Real world road conditions, the cost/reliability of sensors and the lack of true artificial intelligence will hamper the transition of driverless cars from the research lab to the showroom. At best, cruise control will evolve towards greater autonomous control in limited driving conditions., but such capabilities won’t be as nearly revolutionary as the article suggests.
I’m not at all convinced that SDCs mean the death of car ownership. People still need to get from point A to point B on their own timetable; how do SDCs solve this without ownership? Otherwise we’d just take taxicabs everywhere now. How do taxi SDCs end up cheaper than today’s taxis?
I still believe that adoption of SDCs will be driven by the realization that traffic density on all-SDC freeways can be quadrupled (at least), so cities will mandate rush hours to be SDC-only. The DC area already has roads that are one way into the area in the AM, and one way out of the are in the PM; not too far from that to driver-free zones. I expect this to start happening in the 2030 timeframe.
Some of the trends cited are already happening, driven by the increasing computerization of the auto. I did essentially all of the maintenance on my first two cars (getting me through about age 27), but I haven’t even changed my own oil in years – less time and less tinkerer-friendly tech in cars being the driver in the change. SDCs may accelerate some of that but aren’t the root cause.
Well, I did change the valve-cover gasket in the BMW the other week after getting a quote of $500 for someone else to do it.
How do taxi SDCs end up cheaper than today’s taxis?
A big part of today’s taxi fares is income for the driver, and SDCs dispense with that. One hopes that SDCs would also lead to the end of regulations that limit the number of taxis on the road, and with a greater supply you’d get lower prices.
I believe Mr. Matula has, sadly, hit the nail on the head. Given the trajectory of individual liberty after 9/11, I’d say that the days of enjoying the freedom of driving where, when and whatever you like are numbered. It’s one of the last endeavors which allow a sense of freedom left these days.
This was all predicted over thirty years ago …
<a href="http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PjjNvjURS-s" Red Barchetta on YouTube
<a href="http://www.songlyrics.com/rush/red-barchetta-lyrics/" Red Barchetta lyrics
(hopefully I formatted these okay, iPad is not quite as useful as a PC)
I see I got beat to that comment anyway … 🙂
Beat you by 27 minutes. 🙂
It will likely reduce the number of cars on the road and the cost of ownership through timeshare ownership. 95% of the time my car is either in my driveway or the company lot. I if I shared ownership, it could take 2 or more other people to work. This factor alone will drive a lot of car companie out of business (pun intended).
I think it’s even worse than the first post suggests.
Think of the massive loss of jobs. I mean the people who fix vehicles, sell parts, you know: truly productive and skilled individuals who don’t just push paper or beat on keyboards for a living.
How about small business, that typically use light trucks for landscaping/small appliance repair/etc. They now have either vehicles that are much more expensive to maintain, or they’ve gotten another big fixed cost in the form of a robot truck lease.
Small brick and mortar biz? GONE. Who the h**l is going to pay a fee to have a robot taxi to go 2 miles to the train store to buy their kid another used $2 HO car for his set? I do it now for my 6 y/o, and keep Rodney’s second hand train store in business. It’ll be Ebay or Amazon, or probably nothing, because I work for a refinery.
I’ll just be a government dependent, because it’ll be me against all the other unemployed, looking for a job to do what, exactly? Robot delivery cars will bring your stuff to you, instead of hauling your carcass around.
Kiss small town life goodbye too. If walking is the only form of non-fee transportation, coastal megacities and lots of flyover wilderness is the endgame. Agenda 21 anyone?
Think of the massive loss of jobs.
It isn’t unprecedented. Think of all the people who lost horse, oxen and railroad jobs when cars came in. And think of all the farm workers who lost jobs when farmer productivity soared — most Americans used to work on farms, and now it’s under 2 percent.
all the other unemployed, looking for a job to do what, exactly?
If we spend less on cars, we’ll spend more on other things. That spending will generate new jobs, though the specifics are hard to predict.
A technological advance that makes the country richer as a whole will typically leave some unlucky people poorer. The new wealth gives us the option of cushioning that blow with a stronger safety net.
If you started the FAA on that today, they would get around to issuing the first rule by about February 2214.