The Sunk-Cost Fallacy

in love, and automobile manufacturing.

This is a big problem for space enthusiasts. “Oh, we can’t cancel SLS/Orion! We’ve already spent so much on them, all that money would just go to waste!”

Well, since the purpose was really never anything except to maintain the work force, it wouldn’t really have gone to waste, and continuing them would waste even more, if our actual goal is to do useful things in space. We need to cut our losses as soon as politically possible.

4 thoughts on “The Sunk-Cost Fallacy”

  1. The sunk cost fallacy is a big problem for space enthusiasts – and everyone else. Government is replete with examples of such economic ignorance, and there are examples on both sides of the aisle.

  2. “Sunk cost” as a reason to continue a project is only applicable when a positive outcome is likely and achievable with a reasonable amount of additional funds, SLS/Orion does not meet that criteria.

  3. The people who say, “… all that money would just go to waste”, have never owned an old motorcycle, old boat, old sports car or a HORSE.

    There comes a day, when you must cut your losses, agree that the money was WELL spent learning “X” lesson(s), and if you’ve got a big enough freezer and strong stomach, you can slowly eat the horse. In fact, a strong stomach is always needed to stop spending the money.

    In our nations capital, there are maybe a dozen people with such stomachs, but the majority get queasy just thinking, and the topic of that thinking doesn’t seem to matter.

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