Colonizing Mars

Is Elon religious enough to do it?

I don’t know, but I think there will be room for plenty of religions off planet, including new ones.

[Update a while later]

A new paper from the White House called “Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality” that contains almost nothing that would actually enable human settlement of space.

[Afternoon update]

Adam Routh wants to do Apollo again.

27 thoughts on “Colonizing Mars”

  1. “I don’t know, but I think there will be room for plenty of religions off planet, including new ones.”

    Could be a religion related to traveling to other star systems.
    But I think all the great religions will go beyond Earth to “heavens”, and all the great religions “change with the times”- they make the future and the future makes them.
    Personally, I think of colonies on Mars, etc, as similar thing as dreaming of flying or it’s an ability/capability. And roughly speaking I am more excited about flying cars than living on Mars or the Moon. But having settlements on Mars is how or one path to flying cars [on Earth].

    And personally the only reason to go beyond Earth is for economic reasons- Moon, Mars, Mercury, Venus are better place to live. And they make living on Earth a better place to live.

    Or I believe it would be good to have open borders- but we aren’t there yet, just like we don’t have flying cars. Having Mars settlements will be in the direction of open borders on Earth.
    We should have already have Mars settlements, it’s a failure that we already don’t have Mars settlements.

    What should be obvious and I have stated before, is Mars settlements will lead to Earth having Space Power Satellites. Can’t have Mars settlement with a lower cost to leave Earth. And don’t have SPS because it’s too expensive to leave Earth.
    And also pointed out that idea of Martians stuck on Mars is rather foolish- Mars is inherently cheaper to leave than Earth. SSTO is easy with Mars.
    The reason we don’t have settlements on Mars already is because we don’t “enough” markets in space. All we have is the satellite market – which is nice and needed, but it’s not enough.
    It’s impossible for socialism to open space frontier- and too many people imagine Marxism is scientific rather than pseudo science.
    NASA has had the religion that if only citizens would give it more tax dollars, it could do something- like mine the Moon. It’s foolish to imagine that NASA could mine the Moon. But NASA could explore the Moon to determine if the Moon could be mined.
    And NASA could start a market for rocket fuel in space by using depots- instead NASA spends vast amounts of money making a large rocket. [And likewise Musk and others also plan to make very large rockets.] No single entity- whether it’s NASA or Musk [or NASA + Musk] is going to settle Mars.
    It seems doubtful to me whether Mars could even be explored without depots and a rocket fuel market in space.
    So no monopoly whether is socialism or some other kind of corporatism will open the space frontier, though one needs someone to do something- leadership is needed- or having one is the only way to get many. Competition begins with one.

    Religion is a way to tie people to together with common purpose- so it has to involved opening space frontier.

    1. No single entity … is going to settle Mars.
      …the only reason to go beyond Earth is for economic reasons.

      I wouldn’t say it quite that way, but you are correct in my opinion.

      Musk certainly isn’t trying to be that single entity. The elephant in the room has always been funding/economics. Musk’s solution is to get the per person ticket price down but that could be a fundamental mistake. The most important perspective is that of the colonists themselves.

      So look at two scenarios.

      1) Low ticket price ($500k?) paid for by selling all earthly possessions. Arriving on mars with dependency on mars resupply to survive (where’s the funding for that?) Colonists have to scratch out an existence with few valuable assets. They are completely dependent on a ruling earth to keep them alive. Colony grows at slowest rate.

      2) A higher ticket price ($5m) not paid by the colonist. The assets they bring with them is the resupply which funds the early colony and stimulate trade allowing for normal capitalist expansion. Free tickets opens the opportunity up to younger folks that haven’t accumulated the wealth to buy their own ticket. The money comes from speculators getting mars property which appreciates in value because colonists can now afford to go. The colonists still sell all their earthly possessions but now that’s money in the bank to trade for imports from new colonists that have not yet left earth.

      The higher initial ticket price encourages transport company competition at all scales naturally bringing prices down over time. Not having to create a BFR means moving sooner (perhaps a decade?)

      1. **2) A higher ticket price ($5m) not paid by the colonist. The assets they bring with them is the resupply which funds the early colony and stimulate trade allowing for normal capitalist expansion. Free tickets opens the opportunity up to younger folks that haven’t accumulated the wealth to buy their own ticket. The money comes from speculators getting mars property which appreciates in value because colonists can now afford to go. The colonists still sell all their earthly possessions but now that’s money in the bank to trade for imports from new colonists that have not yet left earth.**

        Need a place on Mars better than other spots on Mars.
        A better spot probably be an easier access to underground water.
        Or Mars needs to be explored first.

        1. Surveys suggest any spot on mars will have water and other resources, but in any case it should not be too hard to find many good landing sites. They must have vehicles to get around.

          Spread the first habitats a km. apart in all directions. Later arrivals can choose to go inside or further outside those perimeters.

  2. You must be busy Rand, was beginning to worry.

    Elon’s matrix musings aren’t likely to result in any practical application unless some physicist cracks open something that can be pursued. Nothing but death is going to prevent Musk from moving forward on mars colonization. He’s going to want to take SpaceX public but you can believe his statement that it will not happen until after he’s got regular crew trips going to mars.

    You’re right about the WH article, but the habitat competition did get my interest. It seems to me that all six companies are looking at the issue wrong. It’s base mentality rather than colony mentality.

    For colony mentality they should be looking more at key components to supplement local materials construction. None of the six are doing that.

  3. “President Obama is vowing America will put a man on Mars, announcing Tuesday that the U.S. government will partner with private companies to send humans there by the 2030s.

    “We have set a clear goal vital to the next chapter of America’s story in space: sending humans to Mars by the 2030s and returning them safely to Earth,” Obama wrote in a CNN op-ed.

    The president said the mission’s ultimate goal is make it possible for humans to stay on Mars “for an extended time.”

    The first step is for the NASA to collaborate with private companies to send astronauts to the International Space Station for the first time. That will occur “within the next two years,” Obama wrote.

    Obama said that more than 1,000 companies across the country are working on private space initiatives.

    “We are working with our commercial partners to build new habitats that can sustain and transport astronauts on long-duration missions in deep space,” he wrote. “These missions will teach us how humans can live far from Earth — something we’ll need for the long journey to Mars.””

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/300359-obama-america-will-put-a-man-on-mars

    1. The first step is for the NASA to collaborate with private companies to send astronauts to the International Space Station for the first time.

      Sounds nice but the real first step, is clearing the regulatory hurdles that environmentalists and globalists will use to stop any human activity on Mars, the Moon, or anywhere else. Removing legal and regulatory roadblocks that prevent people and companies from owning property or disturbing rocks should be the first step.

      Developing technology is obviously needed for all the steps before anyone lands on Mars but what would help that development process is the removal of regulatory risk and creating the certainty of property rights and freedom of autonomy.

      If the Obama was really serious about going to Mars, he would disentangle us from international agreements, enact legislation to protect efforts to colonize Mars from his base, and use his control over NASA to change their mission so that the agency directs all its efforts to support colonization.

        1. Yes, because congress already passed similar legislation in relation to asteroid mining on its own that Obama signed. The Obama administration was supposed to produce a report on whether or not the new law violates any international agreements.

          To my knowledge, this report has not be completed or initiated despite being due a few months ago.

          But who knows, maybe the Democrats would block it. I’m sure you know the anti-human sentiment among Democrats, especially those in environmentalism and the sciences.

          Could he use his executive power to withdraw from the OST or would that need an act of congress?

        1. Which is why they should listen to the wisdom of admiral Grace Hopper, “It’s better to ask forgiveness than permission”

          Nobody has jurisdiction over mars, nor can they if they signed the OST. So you play along with govt. if you can. If you can’t you sidestep the issues. For example, you can make your own rifle from perfectly legal parts except one. So clubs have developed where you can buy a kit of all the parts except you must do some simple machining to that final part.

          So you find a country to announce they want to start their own space program. You build everything you can there that doesn’t violate ITAR. Those things that are restricted, they develop themselves (can anyone prove you gave them the technology?)

          Laws made by men are not universal. The Clintons have proved that crime doesn’t get you in trouble. Leaving evidence does (or will.)

          It’s not likely to come to that in any case. More likely is they will need to made minor tweaks to operations if regulations get in the way. Once any colonists are on mars it would be almost impossible for any govt. to disallow more.

          1. Its like China and the South China Sea. They made the islands and now that is the new reality. It would take war to push them off as they can’t be talked out of it.

            How do people think China will act when they have their lunar base?

  4. I don’t know, but I think there will be room for plenty of religions off planet, including new ones.

    Rand’s Space Druids are a real possibility.

      1. I don’t know but when you do, you have have helped the universe discover itself. And does anything actually exist without someone to witness its existence? Does a galactic equinox exist if no one knows of it?

        Rand should write more about his Space Druids.

  5. ” a new study published in Scientific Reports on Monday says the trip alone could severely damage the brains of astronauts making the long journey to the fourth planet.”
    http://circa.com/scitech/science/charles-limoli-study-brain-damage-could-set-in-on-humans-bound-for-mars
    Nature:
    http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774

    So send crew from High Earth orbit, send enough water, so don’t need it recycled [lots of water per crew], and get them to Mars in 3 months or less.
    Send most of mass using low delta-v Earth to Mars trajectories, focus on crew only getting to Mars fast.
    An alternative is use Mars Cyclers. Cyclers have lots of shielding mass and create artificial gravity- Cycler don’t enter Earth or Mars gravity wells and spacecraft with high delta-v get crew to and from the Cycler.

  6. One can’t be more religious than a Prophet.

    And Elon Musk is a Prophet. Along with Saint Steve Jobs, Prophet Peter Thiel, Prophet Jeff Bezos…

    Praise Be To The Machine God!

  7. Two possible futures, “base reality” vs “The Matrix”? But if that’s truly the case wouldn’t it be far less costly to just simulate living on Mars i.e. run “The Martian Matrix”? In fact, in simulation you can do all sorts of neato tricks, like conquering Warp Drive, etc…. You could actually LIVE Star Trek, ala Moriarty… The only thing you need to survive is survivable computation to keep your virtual self alive. Probably a solar powered self-assembling/self-repairing computational matrix running as a spherical shell at 1 AU distance from the sun and eventually other suns. Hollywood to the rescue! Besides, don’t they already believe that?

    As for the rest of us… Apollo to Mars? No, no and thank you no.
    Yeah, lets do it all in the name of national security. We can set up the first military base on Mars, call it Fort Zubrin. Armed to the teeth against all invaders… ? Pat would have loved it…

      1. No. I mean mind altering electronics. Is it alteration if its indistinguishable from “reality”? Is it alteration if electronics is hosting the mind rather than neurons? The weirdest & scariest part of the original Matrix, was not the dodging of bullets, running faster than the speed of sound, etc. No, the scariest is the scene of first physical departure, where Mr. Anderson loses his mouth.

        If you could preserve all of the sensory inputs in a disembodied brain you could still do all the living on Mars you wanted, w/o the need for “life support”. But that is a way out there idea for now. We shouldn’t have to wait for that, when we can already do it now with what we have and with what we are.

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