This is why the rumors of delay to 2019. But this is crazy:
The final GAO report also will to delve into unrelated issues that threaten to delay initial launches of manned capsules by SpaceX and rival Boeing Co. Echoing conclusions of other studies by outside experts, GAO investigators have determined that both companies are likely to miss a 2018 deadline to start regular missions ferrying astronauts to the international space station.
According to industry officials familiar with the draft report, the GAO also pinpointed frequent modifications of Falcon 9 designs as a potential source of delays in obtaining NASA certification of the booster.
For Boeing, these officials said, GAO investigators—among other items—raised questions about the status of tests to determine the reliability of its parachute systems designed to help returning manned capsules land safely.
The GAO also has determined that both companies face an uphill struggle to meet NASA’s statistical goal of no more than one projected astronaut fatality in 270 flights, industry officials said.
The 1/270 requirement is completely arbitrary, and they will never know whether or not they’ve met it. Also, pretty sure that’s an LOC (loss of crew) number, not “astronaut fatality.” A career-ending injury would count, too.
[Update a while later]
SpaceX says they have a plan to fix the turbine-blade issue. It hasn’t caused any problem to date, but as Fernholz says, if you’re going to reuse engines, you can’t have blade deterioration.
1/270? That seems a bit much. Especially considering that no available or historical flight system has been able to reach that. Including the Soyuz that the crew is forced to use until Commercial Crew is available. Nuts.
I agree that continuously changing the design can be a cause for concern though. I’ve even said that much in the past. i.e. SpaceX needs to follow the stable (long term support) and unstable model that Linux distributions use so they can certify the rocket for clients that need that.