Assessing its war plans:
Recognizing that in war nothing ever goes entirely as expected, and that there are some major unknowns, this is based on what we do know about North Korea’s force structure, its comparative strengths, and terrain and other considerations—along with my own assessment of how Korean War II would initially unfold. But regardless of how it played out, one thing is near certain: It would entail horrific destruction and suffering. Tens or hundreds of thousands could become casualties. In defeat, North Korea would become a 25-million strong humanitarian catastrophe. And that is just with conventional weapons: The possible consequences of attacking Seoul with WMD are almost too awful to contemplate. There is a role for force here—a strong ROK/US posture has certainly constrained North Korean aggression for decades—and in no way should DPRK threats be simply acceded to. But under current conditions, and given the scale of likely destruction, planners should strongly question whether each DPRK provocation—even the imminent development of a ICBM—justifies risking such a war.
As a general once said, war consists of sh***y options, and this is probably the worst problem currently on the global state.
So just kick that can down the road … again.
Is this the result of modern politicians needing safe spaces?
Can I say the word that describes this guy?
Wimp.
As an unconventional tactic, how about air dropping small arms to the enslaved populace?
Snickers bars first, then small arms.
It could be that depending on what season a war takes place in, the humanitarian crisis could solve itself when the populace is allowed to feed themselves.
I like this idea. Can we do this in Venezuela?
They’ve already got plenty. Out of a total population of twenty-five million, approximately seven million are military or armed paramilitary reserves. It is a mistake to describe the North Korean population as “enslaved”, at least in any simple meaning of the word, and the complex forms of slavery aren’t solved by handing out guns.
Trump should arrange for NK to procure some Iron Dome, Arrow Missile Defense, and David’s Sling assets from Israel. The gamer in me says put up a bunch of laser turrets and assign a teenager to each one.
North or South?
South, I typed it wrong.
I’ve been thinking that for a long time as well. South Korea is one of the few places in the world where such expensive multi-layered defenses actually make sense. The other is Taiwan.
The overriding problem with that article is the unquestioned assumption that any war on the Korean Peninsula will take the form of a North Korean invasion of South Korea with the intent of conquering South Korea. That’s classic last-war planning, and about two Kims out of date. Pyongyang has no illusions about their ability to conquer the South, at least so long as the ROK government and its alliance with the US are solid. Their primary and very nearly sole military objective is to make sure no one tries to do unto them what was done to Serbia, Iraq, or Libya.
Also, there’s no mention of the thousand or so ballistic missiles (yes, they do work) aimed at key military and logistics targets in the ROK and Japan, twenty or so of them armed with nuclear warheads (yes, they do work), and the volley-firing exercises to defeat allied missile defenses. Or the twenty thousand tubes of deeply entrenched artillery, most of it positioned to decimate invading armies and not the civilian population of Seoul. Or the stockpiles of Sarin and VX, in case HE isn’t enough and for the targets that don’t warrant a full nuking.
But, sure, have fun fantasizing about repelling the Commie Panzer Divisions as they roll south. Bad as that is, the reality is much worse.
The irony is the more war is avoided the worse the prospects get.
Don’t tell SK they are at war. Just give them deadly drones and let the video game players loose! It’d be over in two days.
Japan is probably in the most danger.