Gwynne Shotwell provides a preview. The plan is to continue to pick up the pace. Note that now she’s saying 2024 for BFR debut. That seems conservative, and more realistic.
15 thoughts on “SpaceX In 2018”
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Gwynne Shotwell provides a preview. The plan is to continue to pick up the pace. Note that now she’s saying 2024 for BFR debut. That seems conservative, and more realistic.
Comments are closed.
Yeah, but – what happened with Zuma? SpaceX was going to do like four more launches, including (fingers crossed) Falcon Heavy, and then there’s this total radio silence about some nonsense with the fairing. I had understood that Falcon Heavy required overhauling the launch site after Zuma, and here we sit with no idea what’s going on?
Does anyone know anything, or is this what you pay for with classified launches?
Falcon Heavy won’t launch this year. To do that they would have had to start the pad upgrade work already. Only after SLC-40 is complete can they start work on pad LC-39A. The rocket might be ready to launch but the infrastructure will not be.
I have a suspicion, and it’s certainly no more than a guess, that the business about the fairing is just a cover story, and the real reason for the delay has something to do with Zuma itself, either the payload or the mission. Yes, that’s how it goes with classified missions.
Fairing problems won’t affect CRS-13, which doesn’t have a fairing and will launch from LC-40. But everything else SpaceX launches has a fairing, including Falcon Heavy. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not inclined to believe any of the silly theories drifting about on the InterDweebz. I don’t know what Shotwell meant by BFR in 2024. First flight? First operational launch? First commercial launch? My otherwise useless gut wants me to think test flights in 2022. I’d like to see 2020, but that’d be really astounding. Seeing cargo flights headed for Mars in 2024 and people in 2026 would still be way earlier than anything suggested by NASA or anyone else, and, if I’m lucky, would fall within my lifetime. I’m not likely to be here in the 2040s unless that immortality serum shows up real soon now. Not impossible. My Dad lived to be 87, so if I do as well, I’ll still be here (but very sick) in early 2038…
She said “debut.” I’d take that as first flight.
I would too, though I wish she’d used a more precise term. Maybe first flight of the entire integrated vehicle, as opposed to the test flights they’ve talked about with BFS, at least.
It’ll happen when it happens. I do hope to see it.
Despite our differences, I fervently hope that you will see it as well, Ken. I hate when anyone dies, other than people like Charles Manson.
You do realize that annoying people never die?
Do you imagine they could convict Manson in today’s courts? As evil as he is, his followers did the actual deeds.
BTW, I knew a couple of black sisters (to each other) in Tucson named Mansion and being the fool you know me to be, on our first meeting I said, “ah, are you related to Charlie?” It turns out they were! Nicest ladies you’d ever like to meet.
Gee Whiz! Like Adolph Hitler’s nephew who served in the US Navy during WWII.
OK, so BFR stands for Big Falcon Rocket. Heh.
And here I was thinking it was something else.
2024 appears to have been a typo. The article now says, “… the Big Falcon Rocket, or BFR, which is slated to debut in 2022.”, with the note “Updated at 5:14 p.m. Eastern with correct target launch date for BFR.” at the top.
BFR keeps getting refined and it’s nice that they’re trying to reassure their customers with claims that Falcon 9 won’t be axed. Axing Ariane 4 was one of the biggest mistakes Arianespace did, for example, and I think SpaceX would do tell to take that into consideration when they think of axing the Falcon 9. In the case of Arianespace it left them exposed to competition from Soyuz.
But still, I think they need to move to a more incremental approach for the BFR and Raptor in general. They could test the Raptor on a Falcon 9 Heavy second stage, for example, where the higher ISP makes the most sense. This would allow for paid BFR vacuum tests. I also think they should try to downscale the plans for BFR and make it in a more piecemeal fashion. The second stage of BFR alone, which is supposed to be reusable, could be used as a launcher on its own merit before 2024 as I detail below.
They should also have backup plans for the composite tanks. A high-risk subscale composite tank, a conservative composite tank, and an Al-Li tank. They could test the composite technology to replace the Falcon 9 second stage LOX tanks first over the next couple of years. The temperature and pressure should be similar enough to provide a good test scenario. I think it is a big mistake to try to go all composite on the largest design they plan to do right from the onset. Never underestimate the learning curve for new materials. They should just manufacture an Al-Li rocket with the Raptor using the tools and machinery they already have on the first iteration. This would be the second stage of the BFR, the ITS tanker, but used as the reusable first stage for a new launcher, with Al-Li construction. It would also have the Raptor second stage designed for the Falcon 9 Heavy I mentioned before as a second stage on this rocket. Remember that the second stage of the BFR is supposed to have 12.7 MN thrust! This is almost twice the thrust of the Falcon 9 first stage. That is one reason why I think the BFR is still too large. The second stage of BFR should IMHO have around the same thrust level as the Falcon 9 v1.0/Block 5 so it can be used as its own launcher for current payloads like 4t satellites. But 12.7 MN is still ok. At least it isn’t as large as the Heavy. It is also slightly more than the Proton.
Later, as the technology matures, this rocket would be progressively converted to an all composite construction, it would also replace Falcon 9, later the first stage would be manufactured. But I still wonder if it wouldn’t be better to use a cluster instead like the Falcon 9 Heavy. There aren’t currently enough payloads to justify developing such a large single module as the BFR first stage.
There aren’t currently enough payloads to justify developing such a large single module as the BFR first stage.
That’s because the BFR isn’t meant to serve any existing market. Any that happen to develop will be gravy. Elon will not live forever and wants to retire on mars (and in comfort which means not at first.)
Your main point of incremental development is what SpaceX does. It’s just a question of step size. Too big has obvious risks, but too small has hidden costs. However, it wouldn’t hurt them to think about it. Especially a second stage with Raptor although that would complicate launch facilities.
Actually, it says BFR 2022, which would be terrific, but probably still not quick enough to beat the Chinese back to the moon.