Not forever. The battlefronts in Ukraine are bleeding the Russians, proportionally, even more than the battlefronts of WW2 did. At the same time, Ukraine is doing to Russian military, industrial and transport infrastructure what the 8th Air Force did to Germany in WW2, but is doing it all with unpiloted munitions and, thus, is incurring essentially no casualties in the process.
Russia is not infinite in capability and every metric of this war is running more and more against it with every passing day. Ukraine continues its incremental de-industrialization/de-militarization of Russia with more and more impunity and greater and greater reach. Casualty ratios continue to move more and more in Ukraine’s favor. The incremental confiscations of shadow fleet tankers starve Russia of more and more funds it needs to continue the war. There’s a lot of ruin in a nation and we are finding out just how much there is remaining in Russia. My best guess is less than a year’s worth.
Rhetorical. Four years now, no end in sight?
An expression of frustration rather than a rational analysis. And rational analysis? Predictions are hard, Yogi. (With respect, Mr. Eagleson!)
Not rhetorical, interrogative.
There is definitely an end in sight. I can’t yet give you a precise day, but given the acceleration in Russia’s rate of decay on virtually every metric of significance, I think that day falls somewhere between today and Dec. 31, 2026. The war has lasted more than four years, but I don’t think it’s going to make five.
With all due respect to the late, great Mr. Berra, predictions are easy – if you don’t insist they be accurate or realistic. There were all sorts of predictions, early on, that Ukraine would be a walk-over for Russia in 2022 like it was in 2014.
Attrition is the Russian way. No discussion is going to stop them until they get it all. Whatever “ALL” is?
Meanwhile we entertain Russian astronauts on Dragon for ISS access and may have to support them for orbital access due to their pad problems.
Russia thought it would last 3 days and the Ukrainiacs thought it would be over in months. As a war of attrition, it will go on until one side runs out of men to throw in the grinder or they lose support of their international partners.
Russia has been harassing Ukraine’s allies but it should be noted none of the countries that run their mouths about Ukraine and Trump did anything until Trump showed them how to seize tankers and those same people attack Trump for going after Russia’s allies Iran and Venezuela because at the heart of it, this war is Eastern Commies vs Western Commies and Western Commies still hold all the old allegiances with South American commies, Islamomarxists, Iran, China, and all the rest they adopted from the USSR.
Russia has spent more time not winning the war than Nazi Germany did.
At this point if it becomes Russia’s Vietnam, I think I might be good with it – although I am kind of conflicted over the loss of life.
Afghanistan was Russia’s Vietnam. And, even though it ultimately lost, the conduct of its Afghan War by the then-Soviet Union was a model of military rationality compared to the charnel house Russia is feeding in Ukraine.
The loss of life is regrettable, but more and more of that loss is Russian and less and less of it is Ukrainian.
I guess Putin had such a good time in Afghanistan he wanted to have another?
Putin didn’t have anything to do with the Soviet miscue in Afghanistan. He might have been more cautious anent Ukraine in 2022 had he actually been involved in that mess. His prior experience of warfare was bloodless land grabs from Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine and ruthless suppression of Chechen separatists. All of these were, by his lights, successes. He figured Ukraine 2022 would be pretty much a repeat of Ukraine 2014. He was wrong. Whom the gods would destroy they first make overconfident.
I don’t have much sympathy for Russia but I do for the people doing the fighting on either side.
I don’t speak consonants, but I am sure Russians act the same way English speaking Ukrainiacs do, which is rather disgusting. I am probably in the minority of people who think it might be necessary to kill people but that it isn’t necessary for spectators to act like demons.
Without taking a side, I’ll note that you cannot reconcile 5:1 to 18:1 rations with the Russians taking a total of approximately twice as many casualties as the Ukrainians. Someone’s gotta be lying.
Narrator: Everyone is lying
Casualty claims are always wrong. Claims from communist sources are like all statistics: More wrong.
Not really. The quoted ratios are recent. Ukraine suffered most of its casualties early in the war. The Russians are suffering most of theirs right now.
Perhaps because the loss ratios aren’t static. Ukraine’s biggest losses were front loaded whereas Russia’s are happening, and growing, now.
Russia uses a high/low mix with their soldiers. There is a disparity of losses between the two groups. What this link doesn’t go into are the foreign soldiers fighting for Russia, who likely get treated worse than Russians of low status.
“In contrast to the Winter War’s ~4–6:1 (attacker to defender), Verdun was near-even attrition warfare, while Kursk showed attacker (German) efficiency but ultimate failure against prepared defenses.”
Kursk in WW2 prefigured, to some degree, Russia’s contemporary experience in Ukraine. The Soviets won the Battle of Kursk, but they lost more troops doing so than the Germans did in losing. The loss ratios are far worse now in Ukraine and, of course, the Russians are not winning that one.
Where are you guys getting your intel from?
It’s a club.
You’re not in it.
Neither are they.
There are plenty of good sources: Covert Cabal, Reporting from Ukraine (RFU News), Suchomimus, Paul Warburg
Forever, apparently.
Not forever. The battlefronts in Ukraine are bleeding the Russians, proportionally, even more than the battlefronts of WW2 did. At the same time, Ukraine is doing to Russian military, industrial and transport infrastructure what the 8th Air Force did to Germany in WW2, but is doing it all with unpiloted munitions and, thus, is incurring essentially no casualties in the process.
Russia is not infinite in capability and every metric of this war is running more and more against it with every passing day. Ukraine continues its incremental de-industrialization/de-militarization of Russia with more and more impunity and greater and greater reach. Casualty ratios continue to move more and more in Ukraine’s favor. The incremental confiscations of shadow fleet tankers starve Russia of more and more funds it needs to continue the war. There’s a lot of ruin in a nation and we are finding out just how much there is remaining in Russia. My best guess is less than a year’s worth.
Rhetorical. Four years now, no end in sight?
An expression of frustration rather than a rational analysis. And rational analysis? Predictions are hard, Yogi. (With respect, Mr. Eagleson!)
Not rhetorical, interrogative.
There is definitely an end in sight. I can’t yet give you a precise day, but given the acceleration in Russia’s rate of decay on virtually every metric of significance, I think that day falls somewhere between today and Dec. 31, 2026. The war has lasted more than four years, but I don’t think it’s going to make five.
With all due respect to the late, great Mr. Berra, predictions are easy – if you don’t insist they be accurate or realistic. There were all sorts of predictions, early on, that Ukraine would be a walk-over for Russia in 2022 like it was in 2014.
Attrition is the Russian way. No discussion is going to stop them until they get it all. Whatever “ALL” is?
Meanwhile we entertain Russian astronauts on Dragon for ISS access and may have to support them for orbital access due to their pad problems.
Maybe we’ll know when it’s over, or maybe not:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_body_count_controversy
Russia thought it would last 3 days and the Ukrainiacs thought it would be over in months. As a war of attrition, it will go on until one side runs out of men to throw in the grinder or they lose support of their international partners.
Russia has been harassing Ukraine’s allies but it should be noted none of the countries that run their mouths about Ukraine and Trump did anything until Trump showed them how to seize tankers and those same people attack Trump for going after Russia’s allies Iran and Venezuela because at the heart of it, this war is Eastern Commies vs Western Commies and Western Commies still hold all the old allegiances with South American commies, Islamomarxists, Iran, China, and all the rest they adopted from the USSR.
Russia has spent more time not winning the war than Nazi Germany did.
At this point if it becomes Russia’s Vietnam, I think I might be good with it – although I am kind of conflicted over the loss of life.
Afghanistan was Russia’s Vietnam. And, even though it ultimately lost, the conduct of its Afghan War by the then-Soviet Union was a model of military rationality compared to the charnel house Russia is feeding in Ukraine.
The loss of life is regrettable, but more and more of that loss is Russian and less and less of it is Ukrainian.
I guess Putin had such a good time in Afghanistan he wanted to have another?
Putin didn’t have anything to do with the Soviet miscue in Afghanistan. He might have been more cautious anent Ukraine in 2022 had he actually been involved in that mess. His prior experience of warfare was bloodless land grabs from Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine and ruthless suppression of Chechen separatists. All of these were, by his lights, successes. He figured Ukraine 2022 would be pretty much a repeat of Ukraine 2014. He was wrong. Whom the gods would destroy they first make overconfident.
I don’t have much sympathy for Russia but I do for the people doing the fighting on either side.
I don’t speak consonants, but I am sure Russians act the same way English speaking Ukrainiacs do, which is rather disgusting. I am probably in the minority of people who think it might be necessary to kill people but that it isn’t necessary for spectators to act like demons.
Without taking a side, I’ll note that you cannot reconcile 5:1 to 18:1 rations with the Russians taking a total of approximately twice as many casualties as the Ukrainians. Someone’s gotta be lying.
Narrator: Everyone is lying
Casualty claims are always wrong. Claims from communist sources are like all statistics: More wrong.
Not really. The quoted ratios are recent. Ukraine suffered most of its casualties early in the war. The Russians are suffering most of theirs right now.
Perhaps because the loss ratios aren’t static. Ukraine’s biggest losses were front loaded whereas Russia’s are happening, and growing, now.
Russia uses a high/low mix with their soldiers. There is a disparity of losses between the two groups. What this link doesn’t go into are the foreign soldiers fighting for Russia, who likely get treated worse than Russians of low status.
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/russias-middle-aged-poor-to-the-grinder
“In contrast to the Winter War’s ~4–6:1 (attacker to defender), Verdun was near-even attrition warfare, while Kursk showed attacker (German) efficiency but ultimate failure against prepared defenses.”
https://x.com/i/grok/share/e0a02042fce8471a8a51302d818e29a4
Kursk in WW2 prefigured, to some degree, Russia’s contemporary experience in Ukraine. The Soviets won the Battle of Kursk, but they lost more troops doing so than the Germans did in losing. The loss ratios are far worse now in Ukraine and, of course, the Russians are not winning that one.
Where are you guys getting your intel from?
It’s a club.
You’re not in it.
Neither are they.
There are plenty of good sources: Covert Cabal, Reporting from Ukraine (RFU News), Suchomimus, Paul Warburg
I look to Simplicius for a little sanity check.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-21726-afu-shows-signs-of-life