I was at Ames most of the day yesterday, with no net access, and then took a red eye back from SFO via LAX. Probably no posting today, because there’s a lot of stuff to catch up on around here.
Anti-Krugman 2:
Single Horrible Payor
Paul Krugman today attempts to answer the question, “Why is the insurance industry growing rapidly, even as it covers fewer Americans?”
In 2005, the percent of uninsured was 15.9%. In 2000, it was 14.0%. In 2000, private insurers covered 72.4% of Americans or 204 million. In 2005, they covered 67.7% or 201 million.
Total number of covered individuals increased from 243 million to 249 million. From 2000-2005, the number employed rose from 137 million to 142 million. The number unemployed rose from 6 million to 8 million.
Could it be that we were experiencing a boom in 2001 and coverage peaked as a percent and that it will rise again if we have another boom with 4% unemployment? The percent of the population working has dropped from 67.1% to 66%.
Could it be that people are feeling secularly more healthy and feel like they can go without health insurance? Between 1999 and 2004, life expectancy at birth has risen from 76.7 years to 77.9 years. At least average health overall is improving by that indicator.
Could it be that the sector is over-regulated? CATO estimates that about 1/6 of daily uninsured would buy insurance if it was less heavily regulated. That would allow health care deregulation to take us from 15.9% to 13.3% uninsured and allow everyone else to save a total of $170 billion a year or $680 per covered individual per year or about 1.4% of GDP.
In short, insurers are covering more people. They are helping increase the average lifespan of all Americans. They are doing it despite a substantial burden of regulation.
The First Space Hotel
Bigelow announced at lunch that he will be putting up a three-person space station in late 2009 or early 2010, about fifty percent bigger than an ISS module. He is putting up a destination in hopes that the transportation will come along (and in order to spur the transportation providers). Station will last for several years. Will be executing contracts in 2008 for transportation contracts to Sundancer. Expects between four and eight trips (people and cargo) per year, after six-month shakedown. Then trips will commence whenever transportation becomes available. 2012 will see the launch of another module providing 500 cubic meters of habitable volume. Will support sixteen launches a year for full utilization (again, cargo and people). Minimum three-week stay, but market limited at ten million, so wants to establish private astronaut program for other nations (this is not news). Make sixty instead of eleven countries with an astronaut corps. Could represent on the order of a billion a year in revenue. Launch estimates from fifty to a hundred million per flight. About time to take human spaceflight from the exclusive domain of governments. Will be changing that in the next half decade.
He also announced that he and Lockmart have a joint agreement to study what it will take to human rate the Atlas V for commercial passenger transport.
A press conference is about to start at which he will have more details and take questions. I’ll try to live blog it, despite my lack of mouse.
[Update at start of conference]
Conference with Bob Bigelow and George Sowers from Lockheed Martin. Bigelow saying that he’s happy to simply take questions. Dr. Sowers saying that they’re pleased to be working with a pragmatic visionary like Bob Bigelow to get the human spaceflight industry started. Handing a model of the Atlas V with the Begelow payload on top. Two-stage, one engine per stage, most reliable Atlas ever built.
Bigelow saying that he’s been looking at the Atlas for a while, and impressed with the family track record. Has a lot of faith in the people of Lockheed.
In response to question from David Livinston, this will be handled by ULA if ULA happens, won’t be outside.
Warren Ferster asks if Bigelow will continue to self finance. He says yes, and he’s looking for another job (joke). Has sufficient funds to go through 2010-2012, but wants to start to establish relationships with other companies, because he expects it to be huge. Will be looking for joint venture opportunities.
Each organization will handle its own contribution to feasibility studies, but Sowers says that Atlas V human rating is not a new subject. They have a lot of info to bring to bear.
In response to a question from me, expects to use NASA standards for human rating absent a large document from the FAA.
TBD situation as to who will build crew module. Bigelow is providing destination, and focusing their resources on that. Have had conversation with various people. Bigelow can’t say what cost situation will be, but thinks it’s between three and twenty millions.
Sowers won’t directly answer my question as to whether or not Lockheed Martin is considering a variant of Orion as a crew module. Says that discussions have taken place, and that there are options, and the focus of this announcement is on the launch vehicle and destination.
Not considering any launch site other than the Cape currently.
In response to question from me, says that they currently plan to be at forty degrees inclination for “early out” options in the US (didn’t quite understand this comment from Bob–didn’t seem to be ascent abort, but rather some kind of “early” return from orbit).
Definitely don’t want to discuss cost (particularly with respect to the module).
Wired reporter asking how many people. First module is three, second is five, for a total of nine. Want to reduce costs initially as low as possible to spawn industry and create demand. Will be aggressive with low lease cost (Bigelow).
Sundancer will be as close to forty as possible (response to Warren Ferster). Won’t know specifically until they know launch provider and location. Will be able to change altitude to accommodate launch provider. BA-330 is name for the second module.
Considering EM tether and other methods for maneuvering in response to question from me. Can’t specify electric power level yet.
Conference over.
Thoughts and analysis later.
[A couple minutes later]
I think that this has upstaged the major Orion discussion at the plenary this morning. I haven’t been to an AIAA conference in a while, but this is the first one that I’ve been to that had some of the feel of a NewSpace conference.
[Update a little while later]
Apparently NASASpaceflight.com had the story earlier (I’ve been too busy reporting to know what’s going on, though I was hearing rumors in the morning). Also, there was some speculation in comments in my previous post. Clark Lindsey has thoughts. as does Jon Goff, even if I don’t have time to gather mine right now.
Shutting down the computer now. Back later, probably tonight, after the conference is over. Be nice in the comments section.
Conference Reporting
Yes, sorry, I know that it’s been non-existent (other than deleted whining about wireless problems and the overwhelmingness of it). But Bob Bigelow is the luncheon speaker, and he’s going to make some kind of news announcement at 1:30, so I’ll try to get the word out on that, at least.
Why Are We Afraid?
Hard to disagree, at least for me:
Culturally and religiously we are on the defensive in this War on Terror. And it makes no sense to me. We accept immoral expressions of outrage by Muslims across the world and yet fail to have any of our own justified moral indignation at their actions. Instead we apologize for causing their reactions. Perhaps I should apologize to my four year old for his little temper tantrum this morning and for the time he slugged his sister in the face with a toy.
We hold the high ground – we believe in individual liberty, we believe in religious tolerance, we believe in women
Crippled
Light posting due to being overwhelmed. One of the reasons these AIAA conferences drive me crazy is that it’s not like trying to drink from a firehose–it’s like trying to drink from Niagara Falls. There are a dozen or more sessions going on simultaneously, plus trying to network with various people in the hallways. There’s simply no time to sit down and write anything. This is compounded by the fact that I lost my mouse yesterday, and dealing with a touchpad really slows me down. And I have no time until after the conference tomorrow to run over to Fry’s and get a new one.
Warning To Deranged Anchors
Particularly those on cable news networks struggling to get enough viewers to even count as being in last place. Do not exude idiotic commentary if there’s any chance that James Lileks will hear of it:
Hear ye: if ever I announce that the lightning is sending me messages about how the government seeks to control what I think, please have me commited for paranoid schizophrenia.
He is also spectacularly unimpressed with Ahmadinejad coddlers.
Media Unsavvy
[Note: The dangers of blogging.
I put up a regrettable post last night. The title of it is all that remains (well, also comments), but it takes on a whole new, and appropriate meaning. As I said in it, I was grumpy from lack of sleep, and frustrated from a seeming inability to post all day, but that’s not an excuse. I can’t even claim that I had overimbibed, but that’s not an excuse, either–no one (at least as far as I can remember) has ever strapped me down, cackling, and thrust a one-gallon funnel down my gullet. Short version of it: I was childishly whining because I couldn’t log on from the conference.
I’m not deleting it completely because that always seems a little Orwellian, but it was, as Keith correctly notes in the comments that I am leaving up, an epistle that the AIAA neither would or should appreciate, and it should not remain on the web (this note is mainly for those who might still manage to read it if Google was so unfortunately overdiligent as to have cached it last night).
Even if it were true (I understand now that it was not), it was completely unjustified, and simply a symptom of how spoiled we (or at least I) have become in the early twenty-first century, with expectations, if not outright demands, of the instant gratification of ubiquitous abundant bandwidth. I have had my differences with AIAA over the years, but they are a vital institution to this industry. Like NASA, they are staffed and supported by great people operating under the constraints of their institution. This conference in particular is great (of which I’ll write more later), and despite that churlish growl, I do appreciate them much.
Mark Twain once wrote, “A dog will not bite the hand that feeds him. This is the principal difference between a man and a dog.” Although you can’t always tell on the Internet, I am not a dog.]
Made It
But the plane got in at 10:30, and it took me over an hour to get my luggage. Didn’t get to bed until after 1 AM. I’m headed over to the conference, so maybe I’ll check in from there, bandwidth permitting.
Off To California
But not LA, this time. Do you know the way to San Jose? I do. Fly into SFO via Dallas, rent car, and down the 101.
Excuse me. Make that down 101, just so the locals don’t confuse me with one of those degenerate hicks from southern California. In Sherman Oaks, it’s the 101, but no definite article is required in Silicon Valley. I’ve always wondered, driving up, just where it loses the “the.” I’m guessing somewhere around Paso Robles.
Anyway, that digression aside, I may do some conference blogging, but I’m there to schmooze mainly. I will feel an obligation to write up interesting things that go on there at some point, though. I have a press pass waiting. I hope.