ICBMs were never designed to be highly reliable, because to do so would have dramatically increased their costs (many hundreds of them were built), and it wasn’t necessary for their mission. They were designed to be launched in massive numbers, and if a few out of a hundred didn’t make it through, that was all right, because they were often redundant in their targeting (that is, more than one missile would be aimed at a key target). Some estimates at the time of the reliability of the Titan II was only 80% or so (that is, one in five would not deliver its payload to the designated target), based on the fact that eight of its initial thirty-three test launches were failures. The early manned spaceflights were performed on modified versions of them (specifically, the Redstone and Atlas for Mercury and Titan II for Gemini). But what was good enough for a weapon as part of a fusillade of dozens or hundreds wasn’t perceived to be for a single flight carrying a human, particularly with recent memories of nationally televised ignominious failures of rockets on the launch pad. Thus was born the pernicious (and now obsolete) concept of “man rating,” which confuses the space industry and obfuscates policy down to this very day.
That’s a shame — he was only 82, which isn’t that old these days. No word of the cause of death. I’d heard that he’d been doing well since his recent heart surgery, so either there were later complications, or he just happened to succumb to something else.
The irony, of course, as it notes in the bio, is that he never wanted to be an icon, and generally shunned the publicity. In any event, ad astra, and resquiescat in pace.
One of the saddest things about the atrocity (not “tragedy” — does no one know the meaning of that word any more?) in Colorado (for me personally, of course, obviously not for the friends and families of those involved) is that it completely derailed any commemoration of what we accomplished forty-three years ago today. But while we have done a segment on The Space Show on the subject this time of year every year for the past half dozen, today was the first time that we did one a) with Margaret Jordan, one of the other authors and b) actually performed the ceremony live on air (or rather, on line). It got a good response, with several callers calling in to say that they were moved in listening to it, and were going to perform it themselves. If so, that’s great, because that’s why we wrote it. Perhaps we should have done it years ago. Anyway, here is the link, and the podcast is available now. You might also want to check out The Space Show blog.