Category Archives: War Commentary

Dogs And Cats Living Together

Martin Bright says that “the left” can take a few lessons from “the right“:

…the Foreign Office seems determined to press ahead with courting radical Islamists. Just this month, the British government paid for Yusuf al-Qaradawi to attend a conference in Turkey to discuss the future of European Islam. At home, it funded two Islamist youth organisations, the Federation of Islamic Student Societies and Young Muslim Organisation, to help run a roadshow of Muslim scholars to tour the country. Fosis and YMO, while condemning violence, are ideological allies of the Muslim Brotherhood and Jamaat-i-Islami. It is ironic that conservative thinkers categorise these organisations accurately as part of an Islamist extreme right, while many on the left continue, wrongly, to see them as part of some wider international Muslim liberation movement.

While this situation remains, there is no shame for those on the left opposed to the rise of radical Islam to build alliances with conservatives prepared to call fascism by its real name.

Yes. Like (finally) George Bush.

Litani Grievance

Two days after my prediction that the Israelis would move north to the Litani River in Lebanon, they are doing it.

The Israelis see the “300-500” soldiers lives that will be lost in the exchange as worth the cost of the border security. Hezbollah says that Southern Lebanon will be a “graveyard”.

I disagree with Jacque Chirac who says that allowing continued hostilities “would mean the most immoral result”. It is immoral to demand status quo ante borders that are indefensible and an invitation to future hostilities and extra deaths on both sides of the Litani. Expect the second half of my prediction, a wall, to be built as soon as hostilities die down.

I’m Getting Thirsty Already

The new security procedures mean that the airlines are going to have to provide a lot more water, if you’re not allowed to bring your own.

[Update a little later, with a few more thoughts]

Women are going to get hit harder by this than men. They’re more likely to want to take their special liquids (shampoos, conditioners, etc.) that won’t necessarily be purchasable at the destination, in a carry on for a short trip. For the men, standard shampoo and toothpaste will be purchasable at the other end.

I predict that this is going to mean a lot more checked baggage. I wonder if they’ll be able to handle it?

I also think that as it gets more and more of a PITA to fly, at some point people are going to rebel, and demand that we adopt the Israeli approach–to start looking for terrorists, instead of weapons. Now that Mineta’s gone, the opposition to profiling may be reduced. It will be interesting in light of the Hamdan decision what the Supreme Court will have to say about it if it occurs and (as will be inevitable from the CAIR lawsuits) it hears a case.

Oh, and did you notice Bush’s speech today? He didn’t say we’re at war with terror. He said we’re at war with “Islamic fascists.” That’s a big improvement.

[Evening update]

I think that the new airline security policies are idiotic. I’ll explain why in a TCSDaily column. Probably Monday.

I’m Getting Thirsty Already

The new security procedures mean that the airlines are going to have to provide a lot more water, if you’re not allowed to bring your own.

[Update a little later, with a few more thoughts]

Women are going to get hit harder by this than men. They’re more likely to want to take their special liquids (shampoos, conditioners, etc.) that won’t necessarily be purchasable at the destination, in a carry on for a short trip. For the men, standard shampoo and toothpaste will be purchasable at the other end.

I predict that this is going to mean a lot more checked baggage. I wonder if they’ll be able to handle it?

I also think that as it gets more and more of a PITA to fly, at some point people are going to rebel, and demand that we adopt the Israeli approach–to start looking for terrorists, instead of weapons. Now that Mineta’s gone, the opposition to profiling may be reduced. It will be interesting in light of the Hamdan decision what the Supreme Court will have to say about it if it occurs and (as will be inevitable from the CAIR lawsuits) it hears a case.

Oh, and did you notice Bush’s speech today? He didn’t say we’re at war with terror. He said we’re at war with “Islamic fascists.” That’s a big improvement.

[Evening update]

I think that the new airline security policies are idiotic. I’ll explain why in a TCSDaily column. Probably Monday.

I’m Getting Thirsty Already

The new security procedures mean that the airlines are going to have to provide a lot more water, if you’re not allowed to bring your own.

[Update a little later, with a few more thoughts]

Women are going to get hit harder by this than men. They’re more likely to want to take their special liquids (shampoos, conditioners, etc.) that won’t necessarily be purchasable at the destination, in a carry on for a short trip. For the men, standard shampoo and toothpaste will be purchasable at the other end.

I predict that this is going to mean a lot more checked baggage. I wonder if they’ll be able to handle it?

I also think that as it gets more and more of a PITA to fly, at some point people are going to rebel, and demand that we adopt the Israeli approach–to start looking for terrorists, instead of weapons. Now that Mineta’s gone, the opposition to profiling may be reduced. It will be interesting in light of the Hamdan decision what the Supreme Court will have to say about it if it occurs and (as will be inevitable from the CAIR lawsuits) it hears a case.

Oh, and did you notice Bush’s speech today? He didn’t say we’re at war with terror. He said we’re at war with “Islamic fascists.” That’s a big improvement.

[Evening update]

I think that the new airline security policies are idiotic. I’ll explain why in a TCSDaily column. Probably Monday.

Deja Vu

Why is America waiting to be attacked by Tehran?

What is the explanation for America’s willful fiction that the United Nations Security Council can engineer an accommodation in Lebanon, when it is vivid to every member state that this is a replay of September 1938, when Europe fed Hitler the Sudetenland as the U.N. now wants to feed the jihadists the sovereignty of Israel?

As the author points out, as is often the case, we won’t start this war, but as usual, we’ll have to finish it.

[Update]

Listening to Sky News describing British Muslims who claim that they are Muslims first, and British citizens second. Sounds like it’s time to deport some folks.

Fallacy of Chain Logic

Peace in Lebanon requires all belligerents to agree.
It requires Hezbollah ceasing fire which they say is contingent on:
1. Israel ceding Syrian-claimed Shebaa Farms near the Golan Heights
2. Israel leaving before Hezbollah agreeing
3. An exchange of the captured soldiers for prisoners

Israel ceasing fire which they say requires:
1. Rocket attacks have to stop and a strong international force come in before Israel leaving
2. Kidnapped soldiers must be returned before cease fire

For an international force to come in:
1. There must be an agreement before coming in
2. There must be a cease fire before coming in
3. There must be a willing country to do the deployment

There are other actors that have other things to do such as Syria, Iran, US, Russia and China among others.

These are logically inconsistent and quite unlikely even if the basic inconsistencies get resolved by some miracle. I get a gestalt from the reporting that peace is just a matter of putting more pressure on the parties and that it is a minor issue that divides them. The logical fallacy is that we have a number of unlikely events that must all happen for peace to be achieved and pundits are treating the chain as strong as the strongest link: that Israel and Hezbollah both agree that a prisoner exchange would be a good idea.

My prediction is that we will have no partnership, no peace and that Israel will re-occupy Lebanon north to the Litani River, there will be a new wall, and Hezbollah will be envigorated to continue killing Israeli soldiers at the rate of 50-100/year which was the pre-2000 level. Israel will accept this as a trade vital to keeping Northern Israel free of short range rockets and unacceptable levels of civilian deaths. Lebanon will be a war zone until Hezbollah is beaten by some other force in the rest of Lebanon.

A Grim Prognosis

For a Monday morning. From “Grim“:

I suspect that we will one day speak of the war in Iraq the way we speak of the Spanish Civil War — that is, rarely by comparison to the greater war that followed it. Peace is not in the cards. Things are going to get worse. Our enemies are glad to employ terrorists, who will try to bring the war to our homes. The wise man will prepare his sword, and the arm that may wield it.

Is Nasrallah Launching Iran’s Armageddon?

Omar (of the Iraqi blog Iraq the Model) is concerned that it is. It certainly can’t be rejected out of hand, given the insanities that have been spouting from Ahmadinejad’s mouth recently. He certainly seems of a mind to immanentize the Islamic eschaton.

Morons who think that I’m a right-wing neocon Christer will, of course, scratch their heads at this post, thinking that my only concern is that it will preempt the Rapture.