Category Archives: Economics

The Fourth Era Of Space Exploration

Thoughts on the anniversaries from Austin Bay. In one of these eras, it would be nice to move from space exploration to space development and settlement. I think we have a lot better shot at that now, though.

[Mid-morning update]

The meaning of human spaceflight — twenty essays over at The Atlantic. I haven’t had time to read them yet — I suspect I’ll agree with some and disagree with others. I hadn’t previously heard of many of the authors.

The NASA Budget

Jeff Foust has the numbers on the deal worked out late last week. This is depressing:

In exploration, the CR directs NASA to spend at least $1.2 billion on the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and $1.8 billion on the Space Launch System “which shall have a lift capability not less than 130 tons and which shall have an upper stage and other core elements developed simultaneously.”

So NASA is forced to waste almost fifteen percent of its budget on a jobs program that will likely result in another programmatic failure in terms of actually flying anything. It’s also frustrating that the technology request was unfunded, though NASA probably will be able to come up with the money for it somewhere else.

As Major Tom points out in comments:

Griffin gave Ares I/Orion a larger budget (~$3.5B in FY10 rising to $5.5B in FY11 versus $3 billion in FY11) and easier requirements (25-tons versus 130-tons to LEO, ISS servicing versus BEO missions). Yet after five years of trying, Ares I and Orion never got past the lower-stage suborbital test stage. There’s no reason to believe that SLS/MPCV, if constrained to the same technical base, contracts, and workforce, can get a 5x bigger LV and more complex capsule operational in the same time for less money.

But it’s the law!