More thoughts on SpaceX’s successful failure from Alan Boyle (who cites Yours Truly). By the way, maybe Alan could straighten out Brian Williams.
Category Archives: Business
The Book
The web site has gone live.
What Los Angeles Needs
…but probably won’t get: Mayor Kevin James.
John and Ken were touting him on their show yesterday. Mayoral primaries are notoriously low turnout, and Garcetti and Greuel will be splitting the continuing-corruption vote, so that’s the only chance he has. And of course, he’d still have to win the runoff against the union-thug- and LA Times-endorsed winner in May.
The President’s Tax Fever
Has it broken?
I’d like to think so, but he’s too ideologically driven to have much hope.
Regulating Commercial Spaceflight
Should the industry take a page from the book of maritime law, and self regulate?
Classification Societies originated in the 18th and 19th centuries at the initiative of English ship insurers. Their purpose is to serve the public interest and the needs of their clients by promoting the security of life, property and the natural environment.1 They are impartial organizations consisting of technical experts that have established a system of public safety based on private law contracts. They are often described as the unofficial “policemen” in the marine world. Classification Societies enter into contracts primarily with ship owners and shipyards, which enable them to determine and control whether a ship conforms to their rules. Although Classification Societies do have economic interests, these interests are not the primary reason for their existence. Because of this, they often take the form of non-profit corporations.2
Classification Societies set the standards for the design, construction, and maintenance of maritime vessels. They accomplish this through rules and standards formulated through a committee process. In developing these rules, a Classification Society’s staff relies upon prudent marine engineering principles, theoretical research, and experience.
This is something that the Commercial Spaceflight Federation should be considering.
Happy Berth Day, Dragon
Clark Lindsey has been covering the story, with links.
The Green Dream
…is a nightmare for California’s middle class:
Unfortunately, California environmentalists are trying to turn much of the Central Valley’s farmland back into desert too. Thanks to the Endangered Species Act, federal courts have ordered farmers to divert hundreds of billions of gallons of water away from crops and into the Sacramento River, where it is supposed to help revive the delta smelt.
The diverted water has not helped the smelt much, but it has turned hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland fallow and sent unemployment in some farming communities as high as 40 percent.
California could solve this problem by building more dams, thus adding water capacity. But the state hasn’t built a major new dam since 1979 and none is on the drawing board.
One reason is the California Environmental Quality Act of 1970. Modeled after the federal National Environmental Policy Act, CEQA was intended to make infrastructure planning easier. As the accompanying chart shows, it is anything but an easy law to follow. Unlike most state environmental planning laws, CEQA allows plaintiffs to recover attorney’s fees from defendant infrastructure developers (whether they be state, city or private actors).
This has created an entire environmental lawsuit industry — a very profitable one that chills development. According to the California Chamber of Commerce, CEQA has become “a morass of uncertainty for project proponents and agencies alike.”
Local government smart-growth plans have made it next to impossible for developers to build single-family homes near job centers such as the Bay Area or Los Angeles. As a result, real estate prices along California’s coast are among the highest in the nation, forcing many middle-class families to downsize or move elsewhere.
But the moron voters keep reelecting these people.
Thruster Pods One Through Four
“…are now operating nominally. Preparing to raise orbit. All systems green.”
Congrats to SpaceX.
Another successful failure, which is invaluable for learning and continuing to improve the system.
[Update a few minutes later]
Alan Boyle has the story.
“All Systems Are Go For Launch”
Things are looking good at the Cape a couple minutes before launch of the Falcon 9.
[Update a couple minutes later]
A couple minutes into the flight, and everything is looking nominal, about to MECO.
OK, stage sep, ignition confirmed for second stage. Another six minutes to orbit.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Second-stage engine cutoff in a couple minutes, still nominal trajectory.
[Update a couple minutes later]
OK, engine shutdown and Dragon separation. It’s in orbit with a low perigee. I assume they’ll do a circularization burn at apogee. About to deploy solar panels.
[Update a while later]
I think that it’s safe to say that Dragon flights have become routine now. But the next one will have some pucker factor, because it will be a new version of the vehicle, stretched, with the Merlin D engines.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Oops, may have spoken too soon. Did they have a fairing problem?
If they can’t deploy the panels, I think that Gwynne said yesterday that they can attempt one berthing pass on batteries.
I assume that if there were a crew, they’d probably abort back to earth at this point, while they have batteries (assuming whatever went wrong didn’t interfere with the heat shield). And if they had a small crew, with suits for everyone, they could blow down the cabin and attempt an EVA repair, a la Skylab.
[Update a while later]
There’s going to be a press conference in a few minutes, so I guess we’ll find out more.
I personally blame the sequester.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Actually, now that I think about it, I wonder if they can blow down the cabin? I would have cold plated the electronics, but if they didn’t, it might need air pressure to keep things cool. Surely they designed for that?
[Update a couple minutes later]
For those unfamiliar, I describe the Skylab repair in the book:
before the program ended completely and after the last lunar landing, NASA did undertake one more hazardous series of missions with Apollo hardware, though not to the moon. In 1973, America’s first space station, Skylab, suffered a failure on its launch, when the meteoroid shield was torn off from the aerodynamic forces, taking with it one of the two main solar panels while partially deploying the other prematurely. NASA had to nurse the crippled facility in a “hold” position that resulted in an increase of heat within due to the loss of the shield. The temperature reached 125° F, and it was unknown whether or not the cabin atmosphere was breathable, due to potential toxins from outgassing of overheated materials. But the agency hastily planned a risky repair mission to be performed by the station’s first crew – Pete Conrad, Paul Weitz and Joe Kerwin.
After rendezvousing with the station, the repair started with an open-hatch spacewalk from the Apollo capsule, with Weitz leaning out with a pole, his legs held by Kerwin. However, his attempt to release the stuck solar panel was unsuccessful. The crew then docked to the facility after several failed attempts, and entered after verifying that the air was breathable, albeit hot. From inside the airlock, they deployed a parasol that shielded the structure from the sun, and the temperature finally started to come down, though the power remained low due to the missing and stuck solar arrays. A couple of weeks into the one-month mission, Conrad and Kerwin once again put on suits and went out the airlock to attempt to free up the array. This time they succeeded, but it was almost a disaster, as Conrad was flung by the sudden release of the system after he removed debris from the hinge that was holding it in place. Had he not been tethered, he would have died as the life-support systems of his space suit were depleted, with him unable to get back to the spacecraft. But he was, and the two made it back in. The station was now almost fully functional, and would go on to host two more crews, giving the U.S. valuable long-duration space experience unmatched until the ISS was permanently crewed almost thirty years later. But with the end of Skylab in 1974, and the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program in 1975, the Apollo program was finally over.
I wonder if we may see a repeat, if they can manage to berth it?
[Update a couple minutes later]
OK, apparently the panels aren’t the problem. They’ve got thruster issues, which are causing them to delay the panel deployment until they’re resolved. If they can’t fix that problem, they’re probably not even going to be able to abort and enter properly.
[Update a while later]
No press conference yet, but here’s the official statement from SpaceX: “After Dragon achieved orbit, the spacecraft experienced an issue with its thrusters. One thruster pod is running and two are preferred to take the next step which is to deploy the solar arrays. We are working to bring up the other two in order to plan the next series of burns to get to station.”
[Update a couple minutes later]
This sounds like good news: “thruster pod 3 tank pressure trending positive. Preparing to deploy solar arrays.”
[Update just before noon EDT]
“Solar array deployment successful”
Here’s the latest from SpaceX: “Falcon 9 lifted off as planned and experienced a nominal flight. After Dragon achieved orbit, the spacecraft experienced an issue with a propellant valve. One thruster pod is running. We are trying to bring up the remaining three. We did go ahead and get the solar arrays deployed. Once we get at least 2 pods running, we will begin a series of burns to get to station.”
A Chinese/European Space Station?
This is interesting.
APAS is a pretty obsolete system, but it would be nice to have a docking standard for everyone, for safety and rescue reasons, and flexibility. I’m sure that Frank Wolf would have a hissy fit, though, if we were to share the NDS with the Chinese. The question is, would the station share an orbit with the ISS, or be in a different one? One of my dreams is seeing an actual community and infrastructure develop in one place, which again, would promote safety, and eliminate the idiotic (in my opinion, as I describe in my book) requirement for a “lifeboat” to evacuate everyone in the ISS all the way back to earth.