All posts by Rand Simberg

War Commentary

Petraeus Explained

By Fred Kagan:

The U.S. has not undertaken a multi-phased operation on such a large scale since 2003, and it is not surprising therefore that many commentators have become confused about how to evaluate what is going on and how to report it. Sectarian deaths in Baghdad dropped significantly as soon as the new strategy was announced in January, and remain at less than half their former levels. Spectacular attacks rose as al Qaeda conducted a counter-surge of its own, but have recently begun falling again. Violence is down tremendously in Anbar province, where the Sunni tribes have turned against al Qaeda and are actively cooperating with U.S. forces for the first time. This process has spread from Anbar into Babil, Salah-ad-Din, and even Diyala provinces, and echoes of it have even spread into one of the worst neighborhoods in Baghdad–Ameriyah, formerly an al Qaeda stronghold. Violence has risen naturally in areas that the enemy had long controlled but in which U.S. forces are now actively fighting for the first time in many years, and the downward spiral in Diyala that began in mid-2006 continued (which is not surprising, since the Baghdad Security Plan does not aim to establish security in Diyala).

All of these trends are positive. The growing skill and determination of the Iraqi Army units fighting alongside Americans is also positive. Some Iraqi Police units have also fought well. Others have displayed sectarian tendencies and participated in sectarian actions. Political progress has been very slow–something that has clearly disappointed many who hoped for an immediate turnaround, but that is not surprising for those who always believed that it would follow, not precede or accompany, the establishment of security at least in Baghdad. And negative sectarian actors within the Iraqi Government continue to resist making necessary compromises with former foes. Overall, the basic trends are rather better than could have been expected of the operation so far, primarily because of the unanticipated stunning success in Anbar and its spread. But it remains far too early to offer any meaningful evaluation of the progress of an operation whose decisive phases are only just beginning.

To say that the current plan has failed is simply incorrect. It might fail, of course, as any military/political plan might fail. Indications on the military side strongly suggest that success–in the form of dramatically reduced violence by the end of this year–is quite likely. Indications on the political side are more mixed, but are also less meaningful at this early stage before security has been established.

I wonder how many of the House members were listening, or care?

[Update mid morning]

J. D. Johannes, just back from Iraq, isn’t very impressed with Richard Lugar:

The virtual extinction of the insurgency in the province

Social Commentary

The Overpraised Generation

I always thought that the “self esteem” movement was a lot of hooey. All of the bullies I knew as a kid didn’t seem to suffer from lack of self esteem. If anything, they had an unjustified overabundance of it.

It’s exactly the kind of untested, unsubstantiated nonsense you’d expect from the education establishment, and unfortunately, too many parents bought into it. Donald Sensing describes some of the effects.

Science And Society

The Science Of Homosexuality

An interesting overview over at New York Magazine.

It’s long been obvious to me that homosexuals (and heterosexuals, as I am) are born, not made. What I did find interesting was the notion that women may not have an inherent sexual orientation, or at least one not as clearly delineated as that of men. It certainly jibes well with my own observations. But I’m skeptical that there’s no such thing as a male bi-sexual.

Science And Society

Quiet In The Tropics

Will it be a gentle hurricane season? Well, I obviously hope so. We’re almost a month into it, with just two minor storms, and it does look like things are going to stay calm for another month. But the peak of the season is still a couple months off, so I don’t think it’s safe to draw any conclusions yet.

Of course, I fearlessly predict that regardless of how many hurricanes there are–more, fewer, or the normal amount–some will attribute it to SUVs, and claim that it’s evidence for climate change.