All posts by Rand Simberg

Confusion Of Concepts

While I’ve been focusing on space policy, much of the talk in The Corner has been about immigration. Jonathan Adler has a post with which I’m sympathetic.

While I generally favor substantial relaxation of restrictions on those immigrating to the U.S. to work or study, I do not favor relaxing citizenship requirements. To the contrary, I would probably favor increasing the requirements for citizenship, as well as for receiving whatever forms of public assistance are provided by the government.

I would go even further. I think that someone willing to walk barefoot through the desert and risk death by hyperthermia and dehydration is likelier to appreciate this country, and is a better candidate for citizenship than someone who was fortunate enough to happen to be born here, or have parents who are citizens, and thereby thinks that the world, or at least nation, owes him a living.

I in fact think that citizenship should be much harder to get, but we have to separate the concept of citizenship from a right to work. Citizenship should be about voting, and having a say in the running of the country, and I’d cheerfully disenfranchise those of able body and mind who are drains on the public wealth, rather than contributors.

A Cowboy Space Program?

Glenn thinks that it has a lot to recommend it.

Could our “cowboy” President get behind a Wild West approach to space settlement? He’d be accused of unilateralism, disrespect for other nations, and, of course, of taking a “cowboy approach” to outer space that’s sure to infuriate other nations who want to be players but who can’t compete along those lines — like, say, the French. Hmm. When you look at it that way, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt about what he’ll do. Does there?

Sadly, there does.

I wish that George W. Bush were half the unilateralist cowboy that many of his lunatic detractors think he is, but I certainly see no signs of it in the space policy as stated so far. In fact, the administration is keeping the program international for now, and using feel-good kumbaya tranzi-talk to describe it.

As the UPI article explains, this is, of course, simply a cover to continue using Russian hardware to keep the ISS alive for now, while not explicitly violating the Iran Non-Proliferation Act, but it may get a few of the goo goos (like the late Carl Sagan) on board who would otherwise oppose a new manned exploration program.

But this brings up an issue that has troubled me, but not surprised me, as I read through the blogs on the subject. Much of the discussion in the blogosphere has been filtered through the prism of various commenters’ general opinion of the Bush administration. Many people seem to be opposing it purely because it’s being proposed by the smirking chimp. For example, see the comments section at this dumb post by Kevin Drum. Or from Matthew Yglesias. Or Chad Orzel (scroll up for a couple more related posts on the same subject). The sense one gets from much of the commentary is that they’d favor the proposal if it were coming from a President Gore, or President Dean, but if Bush is proposing it, there’s obviously something evil and cynical about it.

Orzel, in fact, is quite explicit about this:

I should note right up front that, like most people who have commented on this, I doubt that the Bush plan will turn out to be a Good Thing in the end. Not so much because I think it’s inherently a bad idea as because it’s being put forth by the Bush team.

There may be some people who are in favor of it for the same reason, but I suspect that they are far fewer.

It would be nice if the policy could be discussed on its merits or lack thereof, but I suspect that that’s a forlorn hope in a Red/Blue America.

[Update]

Sorry, you’re probably asking, why was Calpundit’s post dumb?

Quote:

We’ve been to the moon and there’s nothing there.

Point one. We’ve been to the moon? Maybe Kevin’s been to the moon, but last time I saw him, he wasn’t wearing a tee shirt. I know I haven’t.

Point two. The couple dozen people who did go to the moon (over three decades ago now) explored, over the course of a few days, an area of a few square kilometers on a planetary surface with the area of a major earth continent. Saying that we went to the moon and found nothing there, is like saying that Leif Ericson went to America and found nothing there.

Point three. We didn’t find “nothing” there. Ask someone who’s actually technically conversant with the subject, like John Lewis, what we found there.

There are vast resources to be exploited, in terms of silicon, aluminum, sunlight, oxygen, and maybe even fusion fuel if we ever figure out the cycle. It’s reasonable to argue that these may not ever become economically viable (though I think that would be a pretty risky statement, given the history of technology development), but to say that there’s nothing there is thoughtlessness on the same scale as those who mocked and derided “Seward’s Folly.”

Oh, and while there aren’t any comments here, I’ll also also respond briefly to Mark Kleiman, amidst a post full of false suppositions and misapprehensions.

Don’t you find it astonishing how people who say they’re concerned about government spending don’t object to wars, occupations, and huge engineering boondoggles? Some time I’d like to hear one of the libertarian space-hounds explain to me slowly why space exploration should be funded by coercive taxation rather than private enterprise plus voluntary contributions. It’s not that I don’t know the answer to that question, but I don’t see how that answer is consistent with hostility to government in general.

I don’t know if I’m a “libertarian spacehound” (whatever that is), but I suspect that this is aimed at people like me.

Reality check: Few libertarians will support this initiative. Most agree that it should be done voluntarily. I wouldn’t weep if NASA was totally defunded.

But the other reality is that the space program, as is the case with most other programs, has powerful constituencies and rent seekers, and it’s going to continue to be funded, so all I can do is try to influence policy in a way as to maximize my desired goals from that expenditure. It’s a continual uphill battle, and I don’t actually expend that much energy toward it, because I consider it relatively futile. I’d rather focus on non-governmental approaches, and I do.

[Update at 9:38 AM PST]

Heyyyy, it’s no longer anecdotal from blogs. Public opinion shows the same trend.

It made a difference who was said to be behind the plan. When half the poll sample was asked about a “Bush administration” plan to expand space exploration instead of the “United States” plan, opposition increased.

Just over half of Democrats’ opposed the plan by “the United States.” Once it was identified as a “Bush administration” plan, Democrats opposed it by a 2-to-1 margin.

And if it had been a “Clinton or Gore administration plan,” there’d have likely been a lot more kvetching from conservatives. For something as non-partisan as the space program, this is very frustrating.

There’s a lot more of interest in this article, but I’ll save it for another post.

OSP, RIP?

Here’s an article at Aviation Week with more detail on what the administration plans for a NASA program restructuring (though I’ve heard via some of my own beltway sources that the architecture actually isn’t that well defined yet, and won’t be immediately–Wednesday’s speech will be more broad-brush).

One bit that I found of interest (and one which some people, who fantasize that this has anything to do with concerns about Chinese competition, should note):

“You have the accident to thank for this,” said one source of the new presidential policy, which Bush signed last month after an interagency review of space policy triggered by the report of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). The review and Bush’s decision have been closely held, and those who described it spoke only on condition of anonymity.

However, if this is all correct, then I’m a little less concerned.

OSP dead? RIP, and good riddance.

If it takes them ten years to develop the CEV, that’s plenty of time to get private activities going in LEO, making it ultimately pointless, or perhaps useable as a space-only vehicle, if the design isn’t too insane. The main thing is that it will keep NASA busy with something new that won’t be competing with the private sector.

I’ve pretty much given up any hope of getting sensible policy out of the administration (or for that matter, any administration), at least with respect to NASA, but that’s all right. I’m more concerned that they do no harm, and this policy shows some promise of not doing too much damage to our prospects for opening up space. It will only be hard on the taxpayers, but that’s nothing new, and in the context of the total federal budget hurricane, it’s spitting in the wind.

The Foust Collective Grows

Jeff Foust has started up yet another blog–on space politics. He also has some good stuff over at The Space Review today: a roundup of space policy positions of the Democrat candidates for president, and some suggestions for the president from Rick Tumlinson, with very little of which I disagree.

Any discussion of a permanent return to the Moon (RTM) must be centered on two overriding questions: ?why?? and ?how?? The answers to each of those questions are interrelated. If we go for the wrong reasons we will fail. If we go for the right reasons and do it the wrong way, we will fail. And if we don?t go at all, then we will have failed in a way that will send ripples down through the ages….

…NASA must shed operational activities such as LEO transport and running the space station. The Orbital Space Plane should be canceled?now. Prizes, multiple source contracts, investment and tax incentives must be put in place to encourage the new ?Alt.Space? firms to take over human transport to space, and drive the traditional aerospace giants to modernize or get out of the field. The space station should be mothballed, handed to our partners, or be taken over by a quasi-commercial Space Station Authority as a destination for commercial and university users. ISS and other NASA pet projects must not be grafted onto a moon project simply because they exist. If they really support it they are in, if not, they are out.

RTWT

More Cautionary Words

I’m apparently in good company in my concerns about the administration’s new space policy.

…a sustained human presence on the moon, advocates say, is best achieved by harnessing the full creativity of the commercial sector.

“It is my hope that this new vision does have an ample opportunity for the commercial sector,” said Courtney Stadd, NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe’s former chief of staff who left the space agency for private industry in late 2003. “If it is limited to just a few astronauts exploring the moon and Mars, as we learned after Apollo 17, it will not grab and sustain public attention.”

David Gump, president of Fairfax, Va.-based LunaCorp and author of the 1990 book, “Space Enterprise: Beyond NASA,” agreed.

“It’s up to the administration on which path it takes into the forest,” Gump said. “If it welcomes private participation, life is good.”

We’ll find out Wednesday, if Keith is right. Or perhaps not. Even if the president makes a formal address, it would still be possible to do so without getting into the implementation details (though I would argue that this is an argument of philosophy and purpose, as much as implementation, and certainly should be specifically addressed in such a policy announcement).

Back On The Air

I’m blogging from the heart of hanging chad country, in Lauderdale by the Sea. I flew out here Friday, but didn’t have internet access until today. I’m sitting by the pool of the Shore Haven Inn, a block from the beach, on a wireless connection. The hotel even provides wireless access cards for laptops for guests (like me) who haven’t yet brought their machines up to date.

I see that there’s a lot of buzz in the blogosphere about the upcoming space policy announcement, and the comments section has been lively in my last post. I’ll be commenting on well, not all, but some of this after I get my bearings.