All posts by Rand Simberg

Technology and Society

Show Me The Numbers!

To paraphrase the Cuba Gooding character from “Jerry Maguire.”

I keep seeing these breathless articles in the popular media, and even the trade press, about reducing sonic boom, with its promise of practical commercial supersonic flight. The latest hype comes from Popular Science (via Clark Lindsey).

Why do I call them hype?

Two reasons.

First, I have never, ever seen a single number in these articles indicating to what degree the boom is attenuated. Maybe it’s just my suspicious nature, but I suspect that if we could see those numbers, we might be less impressed.

Second, there is never any mention in these articles about the other problem that is holding back practical supersonic flight, which is all of the drag associated with the shock. Even if by some legerdemain with vehicle contours they can reduce the boom sufficiently to allow overflight of land, the operating costs will remain horrific and unaffordable to most, because of the tremendous amount of wave drag from the shock system and skin drag from the huge swept delta wings that all of these concepts continue to employ.

That means that at best, it will remain another Concorde, though perhaps one that can fly coast to coast–an expensive ride only for the rich.

I find this topic particularly frustrating because I’ve been aware for a number of years of a technology with the potential to effectively eliminate shock, with both the sonic boom and the tremendous drag associated with it, but there has never been any interest in pursuing it, from either NASA or industry.

Anyway, I’ll take this stuff seriously when I see some quantification of just how much they’re reducing the overpressure, and some indication of understanding of the drag problem, instead of focusing entirely on the boom.

[Update in the afternoon]

Clark points out in comments that they do show some numbers in a slideshow.

Color me unimpressed. There’s never been any doubt that one can reduce boom through body shaping–the issue is whether you can get enough reduction to solve the problem. This graph shows a softer peak, from a little over 1.2 PSF to about 9 PSF. So they’re reducing it by about thirty percent.

Big whoop. Still gonna break windows.

Is there any reason to think that they can do significantly better than this graph would indicate, particularly for a large transport? There’s none provided in the article. In fact, they even admit in the caption here, “Designers of the modified F-5E weren’t trying to eliminate the sonic boom, but prove that aircraft shaping can lessen this signature of supersonic flight.”

Big deal–we knew that.

And as Clark notes, there remains no mention of the drag issue.

Still looks like hype to me, similar to that over hypersonics. It may be beneficial for some military apps, but there’s no reason to think that it will usher in a new era of commercial air transport, or even make supersonic bizjets practical, despite the pretty pictures.

General

Shop Goggles?!

Well, I guess later was sooner than I thought.

I repeat for emphasis (including obligatory whiz bang): Shop goggles?!

I always knew (well, as long as I’ve known him, which is getting to be a disturbingly long time) that Instapundit was a geek, but I never realized he was such a girlie boy.

Administrative

Checking In

The flight went as well as a red eye can, but I’m suffering from ASDD (Adult Sleep Deficit Disorder). As you can see, sometime this morning, the phone company fixed the line, and we now have not only voice, but a reasonable high-speed DSL connection.

More later.

Space

Congratulations

I’m headed to Boca Raton. We don’t have internet connectivity there yet (and as of the last few hours, we don’t even have a land line), so I don’t know when I’ll be logging on again, but hopefully by early in the week.

Until then, congratulations to the Cassini team. Sometimes, amidst all of the ongoing disaster of our space policy (for instance, check out this bit of micromanagement foolishness by Congress), it’s easy to get jaded, but if someone had told you thirty-five years ago (the first moon landing) that there would be a satellite in orbit around Saturn sending back such spectacular close-up pictures of its rings and its many moons (most of which we were unaware at that time), you would have been amazed, even in the face of the manned moon landings. This is one of those moments (which are happening ever more frequently) in which I finally feel like I’m living in the twenty-first century.

Satire

Saddam Gets New Attorney, Seeks Change Of Venue

July 7, 2004

BAGHDAD (APUPI) Accused mass murderer and tyrant Saddam Hussein has hired Mark “Attorney-to-the-Extremely-Guilty” Geragos to defend him in his upcoming trial. As his first act, Mr. Geragos immediately filed with the court for a change of venue, on the grounds that it would be impossible for Mr. Hussein to get a fair trial in Iraq, a place in which he is widely known, and has been for decades.

“Go out in the street, and try to find someone who hasn’t heard of Saddam Hussein, or who is unfamiliar with this case,” he demanded. “Every family in Baghdad claims to be able to recount some horror story of a friend or relative who was supposedly imprisoned and tortured or murdered, ostensibly at the orders of my client. How are we supposed to find an impartial jury here?”

When asked if he had any suggestions for a new location, he replied, “It’s pretty tough, given all the bad press Mr. Hussein has received all over the world, for years. I guess my preference would be to move the trial to Redwood City to reduce my commute time. It would also provide a useful contrast with my other clients, Scott Peterson and Michael Jackson. I mean, compared to Saddam, a child molestor and uxoricidal sociopath don’t look all that bad.”

“But if we can’t move it to California, then perhaps we could get a better hearing in France.”

Administrative

Hard To Keep Up

Sigh…

Well, I see that Andrew has gone off on vacation without my permission. He can be sure that I’ll dock his pay nonetheless. Either that, or I may double it. Either way, his bank account won’t know the difference.

His only way out of this impotent punishment will be to provide some interesting posts on his visit to Woods Hole.

It’s particularly annoying because I’m too busy to post as well. I’m busy conjuring up affordable and sustainable architectures for exploring the solar system, made all the more difficult by innumerable (and probably incommensurable) political constraints. While I’m doing this more than full time, I’m also trying to get the California house ready to rent, and I’m going down to Florida in a couple days to help Patricia (who I haven’t seen since the beginning of the month) continue to unpack there and get the house ready to live in.

I’ll try to get up a post or two up in the next couple days, nonetheless. In the meantime, go over to Hobbyspace and RLV News (which still needs a new name), where Clark Lindsey always seems to have enough time to check out what’s going on.

Space

An Overall Perspective On The Reagan Space Legacy

A couple weeks ago I published a eulogy to Ronald Reagan at National Review on line, with respect to his legacy for space. It wasn’t the original piece I submitted–the original submission was longer and more comprehensive in terms of his overall space policy.

The piece that they published was better, partly because it was tighter and more succinct, and partly because, in the interests of the old saying of de mortuis nil nisi bonum, it was uncritical of his failures in space policy.

Now that he’s been interred, and it’s time to reflect on his presidency in its entirety, I’m republishing the original piece here. It will follow when you click on the “read the rest” link (unless you’re coming directly to the permalinked post, in which case it follows after the next couple paragraphs).

I’m prompted to do this for two reasons. First, because it has some perspective on the Reagan space policy that is relevant today, but also because Dwayne Day had a piece at The Space Review today that I think is too kind to Bill Clinton in that regard (and by the way, there are a lot of interesting pieces at that site today, so don’t restrict yourself to that one).

Thus, I’m providing what I hope is a relatively objective perspective of Reagan’s space policy, which was by no means completely laudatory, in anticipation of a similar one on Mr. Clinton’s, which was yet another decade-long setback, and one that the current administration is not addressing in many important ways.

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Continue reading An Overall Perspective On The Reagan Space Legacy →

Political Commentary

What He Said

Thanks, Mindles, for stating better than I could my ongoing frustration with people who assume that I’m a rabid right winger because I don’t agree with rabid left-wing positions. There’s only one part of the post with which I disagree:

Bush never saw a spending bill or entitlement he didn’t like, all small government rhetoric aside.

What “small government rhetoric”? I’ve never heard any.

I had hopes that Bush planned to shrink government, despite his talk about “compassionate conservative,” but it was hope based on faith, not evidence. All I knew was that he would be preferable to Albert Gore Jr.

I also know that he will be better than John F. Kerry.

That is to damn him with faint praise.

But I’m sure that I’ll continue to be lambasted as a right-wing Bush lover.