All posts by Rand Simberg

I Hope NORAD’s Been Notified

This is kind of cool. Via Jim Oberg, I’m informed that two Russian strategic bombers are going to fly from Russia over the north pole and land in Oregon.

1350 GMT — Russian strategic bomber to visit U.S. for first time

MOSCOW. June 4 (Interfax-AVN) – The Russian TU-95MS Bear strategic bomber will conduct a flight to the U.S. for the fist time, Colonel Alexander Drobyshevsky,head of the Air Force press- service,told Interfax-Military News Agency on Friday. According to him,the strategic bomber’s flight is timed to the 100th birthday of famous Russian test pilot Valery Chkalov to be celebrated on June 15-21.

“The ferry flight will be conducted along Chkalov’s route from Russia to the U.S. via the North Pole,” Drobyshevsky said. He also noted that the TU-95MS would be refueled in the air over the Arctic Ocean outside the Novaya Zemlya archipelago by the IL-78 Midas tanker.

The TU-95MS is to fly from the Russian Air Force base in Engels to Portland, while the IL-78 from Anadyr airbase to Portland. The IL-78 will carry a delegation of Russian Air Force officials and various equipment for the bomber. “It will be the first time Russian aircraft of this type visit the U.S.,” he emphasized.

Sixty Two Years Ago

The beginning of the end of the war in the Pacific occurred for the Japanese.

The Battle of Midway was the most decisive single naval battle in U.S. history. The battle left two heavy Japanese carriers against four U.S. carriers, and cost the Japanese veteran pilots whose inexperienced replacements would require a full year of training. Furthermore, the Imperial Japanese Navy lost the secret of its Zero fighter, leading to certain improvements of the F6F Hellcat, which would, just a year later, begin to destroy Japanese air supremacy.

The Battle of Midway enabled the U.S. Navy to go onto the offensive. Herein lay the importance of the battle. For this is where I think people are wrong when they say that the loss of the battle would not have been a too important event. If the U.S. had indeed lost all three carriers at Midway there would have been merely three carriers remaining to oppose any Japanese move — none of which was a really good ship. Saratoga was old and slow in maneuvering, Wasp small and with a small complement of planes, and Ranger slow and small as well as ill-protected. None of these carriers could hope to last in a battle with the Japanese carrier fleet which would allow the Japanese to prosecute several goals: construction of airfields on Guadalcanal; invasion of Port Moresby; invasion of New Caledonia; and more. The Battle of Midway reversed this. The Japanese could never again operate offensively, while the Americans could now do so at places of their own choosing.

Two years later, almost to the day, the successful invasion of Europe at Normandy would signal the beginning of the end of Hitler’s regime as well.

Aldridge Results

The commission’s report will be released next Thursday, a little less than five months after the president’s announcement of the new policy and the formation of the commission. NASA will have a briefing on it the next day, a week from today.

What Was Tito, Chopped Liver?

Via Clark Lindsey, here’s an article on the upcoming SpaceShipOne flight that’s more than just a regurgitation of Scaled’s press release. It helped that the author interviewed Jeff Foust about it. I only found one problem with it.

The pilot, who will become the first nongovernmental astronaut in history, then will fly the craft back to Earth after it reconfigures from rocket to glider plane.

Emphasis mine. Apparently he’s never heard of Charlie Walker, the Japanese news agency guy, Helen Sharman, Dennis Tito, Mark Shuttleworth…

It would have been correct to say that he was the first astronaut to fly on a non-government-developed vehicle, which is the real significance (particularly when one looks at the relative cost).

I also found this part interesting, because I hadn’t previously seen much of a hint about Paul Allen’s motives:

Crediting Rutan and the Scaled Composites team with accomplishing “amazing things” without government backing, Allen said SpaceShipOne proves that a privately funded space industry is possible.
“Every time SpaceShipOne flies we demonstrate that relatively modest amounts of private funding can significantly increase the boundaries of commercial space technology,” Allen said in a statement.

Foust said “modest” might be in the eye of the beholder, but Allen’s funding had shown that a relatively small amount of money — on the order of a few tens of millions — can fund development of a manned, reusable, suborbital spacecraft that could open new markets, such as space tourism.

It’s not clear if he has a business plan for follow-on developments, but it is clear that he’s been thinking about it. If he starts to compete with fellow Seattleite (Seattleinian?–are either of those correct, or even words?) and dotcom entrepreneur Jeff Bezos, things could get very interesting very quickly.

Let It Die

Apparently Arnold is as ignorant about the “assault weapons” ban as many others. But it probably won’t hurt him much in California.

In fact, supporting an extension of the ban, while having no practical effect, may give him cover to veto some of the loonier things that the legislature does in Sacramento (e.g., the ammunition tax, or the requirement to report gun ownership when renewing drivers license registration) without being called an NRA stooge.

Private Space Discussion

An emailer points out a local NPR show airing at 1 PM Pacific today in Seattle, with Charlie Vick and Gregg Maryniak (of the X-Prize Foundation).

Here’s the promo:

The Conversation

Guy Nelson, in for Ross Reynolds

1 pm Pacific KUOW 94.9 fm

Listen to past shows in The Conversation archive

Call-in numbers 206 543 5869, toll free long distance 1-800-289-5869

The first space launch by a private investor will happen this month. The man behind the project: Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. His rocket, called SpaceShip One, is designed for short visits to space, and does not travel fast enough to be put into orbit. What do you think of space travel moving into the private sector? What can they accomplish that NASA can’t? What questions do you have for the designers of these new rockets? Would you like to travel to space on a vacation? On The Conversation today, we’ll discuss the future of space travel, the Ansari X prize competition and find out what Allen hopes to accomplish.

Join us at 1:00 on KUOW. Call in your thoughts before the show to The Conversation feedback line, 206 221 3663 or send e-mail to conversation@kuow.org.

Join us on the air by calling 206 543 KUOW or 1
800 289 KUOW.

GUESTS: (as of 12:00pm PACIFIC)

Dr. Charles Vick: Senior Fellow on Space Policy with GlobalSecurity.org with more than 40 years of experience

Gregg Maryniak: the executive director of Ansari X prize

The show should be available on the archive shortly after it ends, for those who aren’t local. I hope that this month’s event, and the eventual winning of the prize, causes a lot more public discussion of this topic.

A Penny’s Worth Of My Thoughts

The folks over at The Corner are debating the merits of phasing out the penny (there are several posts–just scroll down or control-F for “penn”).

Most seem to favor keeping it, and make all kinds of arguments for it, few of which I find compelling, and most of which are, in my humble opinion, at base a simple conservative resistance to change, them being conservatives and all. One last holdout was Peter Robinson, who was swayed to the pro-penny side by the following flawed argument:

A penny is to money as entropy is to thermodynamics. When you spend money, you get some useful work (the stuff you bought), some useful left over energy (large change), and some energy lost to entropy (pennies). Sure, if you get enough pennies together, you can make most of them useful, but some will always be lost to the pavement, cracks between the cushions, and not having quite enough to fill a roll of pennies.

Just as you can’t get rid of entropy in thermodynamics, I don’t think you’ll ever be able to get rid of fiscal entropy; the most you can do is turn nickels into the new unit of entropy.

Sorry, I don’t find the “entropy” argument compelling. If it were true, then if a hundred to the dollar is good, a thousand to the dollar would be better. Why stop there?

Face it, any choice of the smallest denomination of currency is going to be arbitrary. While it would be nice to see some deflation a la Ramesh, it’s a dangerous path to get there, and at the current valuation of the dollar, pennies really are useless.

I’d say that a reasonable criterion for when a coin has too small a value is when it’s not possible to purchase anything with a single one of it. A penny may still buy thoughts, but there’s nothing else that it can purchase in today’s society, since the demise of the penny gumball machine.

Away with it.

A Penny’s Worth Of My Thoughts

The folks over at The Corner are debating the merits of phasing out the penny (there are several posts–just scroll down or control-F for “penn”).

Most seem to favor keeping it, and make all kinds of arguments for it, few of which I find compelling, and most of which are, in my humble opinion, at base a simple conservative resistance to change, them being conservatives and all. One last holdout was Peter Robinson, who was swayed to the pro-penny side by the following flawed argument:

A penny is to money as entropy is to thermodynamics. When you spend money, you get some useful work (the stuff you bought), some useful left over energy (large change), and some energy lost to entropy (pennies). Sure, if you get enough pennies together, you can make most of them useful, but some will always be lost to the pavement, cracks between the cushions, and not having quite enough to fill a roll of pennies.

Just as you can’t get rid of entropy in thermodynamics, I don’t think you’ll ever be able to get rid of fiscal entropy; the most you can do is turn nickels into the new unit of entropy.

Sorry, I don’t find the “entropy” argument compelling. If it were true, then if a hundred to the dollar is good, a thousand to the dollar would be better. Why stop there?

Face it, any choice of the smallest denomination of currency is going to be arbitrary. While it would be nice to see some deflation a la Ramesh, it’s a dangerous path to get there, and at the current valuation of the dollar, pennies really are useless.

I’d say that a reasonable criterion for when a coin has too small a value is when it’s not possible to purchase anything with a single one of it. A penny may still buy thoughts, but there’s nothing else that it can purchase in today’s society, since the demise of the penny gumball machine.

Away with it.