All posts by Rand Simberg

Space

OK, I’ve Reconsidered

OK, I’ve gone back and taken a look at Jeffrey Bell’s Space Daily piece again.

In addition to the comments that Dwayne Day made on the previous post, he’s wrong about architectures. I was a little confused on my first read, and I thought I agreed with the following:

People who say that a manned moon mission could be assembled in LEO out of small pieces launched on existing boosters like the new EELVs are dead wrong. This option was never seriously considered by either the Red Team or the Blue Team back during the Moon Race. It vastly magnifies the chances of failure.

Both Delta 4H and Atlas 5H can lift about 20 tons to LEO, so many launches would be needed for each moon flight. The need to design the moonship in many small pieces increases its total weight. Rumor suggests that the actual number coming out of current studies of this option are in the range of 6 to 9 launches (120-180 tonnes). If any one of these launches were to fail, the whole mission plan would be disrupted.

Also, there is no way we could produce the number of Delta 4H or Atlas 5H boosters it would take to support a serious moon program on top of all other launch requirements. Since each Heavy EELV uses three core stages in parallel, 18 to 27 stages would be dumped into the Atlantic for one Moon landing.

I actually do agree with much of this–I don’t think that it’s sensible to use EELVs for the new space initiative. Of course, I don’t think that it’s sensible to use expendables in general. My biggest disappointment in the new space policy is that it seems to have thrown in the towel on the possibility of getting low-cost launch.

If we were to launch the pieces on a reliable, low-cost launcher (a highly reusable space transport), then the concerns about a missed launch would be vastly mitigated, the pieces themselves would be much cheaper, and there would be spares in the event of a launch failure. Unfortunately, this is an option that no one seems to be considering now, because NASA screwed the pooch so badly on X-33 that the agency (totally irrationally) really seems to believe that it’s not possible to build reusables, or lower launch costs significantly. And for the paltry goals that the agency has (even in the wake of the new space initiative), it’s probably not.

It will only happen when the nation (not NASA) decides that we have to have routine affordable access to space, and puts in place policies to achieve that goal (which involve much more activity than NASA’s space exploration goals). But once the goal is achieved, the trade space will become radically transformed, and articles like Jeffrey Bell’s will be irrelevant.

Space

OK, I’ve Reconsidered

OK, I’ve gone back and taken a look at Jeffrey Bell’s Space Daily piece again.

In addition to the comments that Dwayne Day made on the previous post, he’s wrong about architectures. I was a little confused on my first read, and I thought I agreed with the following:

People who say that a manned moon mission could be assembled in LEO out of small pieces launched on existing boosters like the new EELVs are dead wrong. This option was never seriously considered by either the Red Team or the Blue Team back during the Moon Race. It vastly magnifies the chances of failure.

Both Delta 4H and Atlas 5H can lift about 20 tons to LEO, so many launches would be needed for each moon flight. The need to design the moonship in many small pieces increases its total weight. Rumor suggests that the actual number coming out of current studies of this option are in the range of 6 to 9 launches (120-180 tonnes). If any one of these launches were to fail, the whole mission plan would be disrupted.

Also, there is no way we could produce the number of Delta 4H or Atlas 5H boosters it would take to support a serious moon program on top of all other launch requirements. Since each Heavy EELV uses three core stages in parallel, 18 to 27 stages would be dumped into the Atlantic for one Moon landing.

I actually do agree with much of this–I don’t think that it’s sensible to use EELVs for the new space initiative. Of course, I don’t think that it’s sensible to use expendables in general. My biggest disappointment in the new space policy is that it seems to have thrown in the towel on the possibility of getting low-cost launch.

If we were to launch the pieces on a reliable, low-cost launcher (a highly reusable space transport), then the concerns about a missed launch would be vastly mitigated, the pieces themselves would be much cheaper, and there would be spares in the event of a launch failure. Unfortunately, this is an option that no one seems to be considering now, because NASA screwed the pooch so badly on X-33 that the agency (totally irrationally) really seems to believe that it’s not possible to build reusables, or lower launch costs significantly. And for the paltry goals that the agency has (even in the wake of the new space initiative), it’s probably not.

It will only happen when the nation (not NASA) decides that we have to have routine affordable access to space, and puts in place policies to achieve that goal (which involve much more activity than NASA’s space exploration goals). But once the goal is achieved, the trade space will become radically transformed, and articles like Jeffrey Bell’s will be irrelevant.

Political Commentary

The Uncommon Touch

Hugh Hewitt explains why Senator John “I voted for it before I voted against it” Effing Kerry will lose this fall.

And I loved this part of Dick Cheney’s speech yesterday, in which he gutted the putative Democrat nominee’s “nuance” like a Rocky Mountain trout.

A few days ago in Pennsylvania, a voter asked Senator Kerry directly who these foreign leaders are. Senator Kerry said, “That’s none of your business.” (Laughter.) But it is our business when a candidate for President claims the political endorsement of foreign leaders. At the very least, we have a right to know what he is saying to foreign leaders that makes them so supportive of his candidacy. American voters are the ones charged with determining the outcome of this election – not unnamed foreign leaders…

… Senator Kerry speaks often about the need for international cooperation, and has vowed to usher in a “golden age of American diplomacy.” He is fond of mentioning that some countries did not support America’s actions in Iraq. Yet of the many nations that have joined our coalition – allies and friends of the United States – Senator Kerry speaks with open contempt. Great Britain, Australia, Italy, Spain, Poland, and more than 20 other nations have contributed and sacrificed for the freedom of the Iraqi people. Senator Kerry calls these countries, quote, “window dressing.” They are, in his words, “a coalition of the coerced and the bribed.”

Many questions come to mind, but the first is this: How would Senator Kerry describe Great Britain – coerced, or bribed? Or Italy – which recently lost 19 citizens, killed by terrorists in Najaf – was Italy’s contribution just window dressing? If such dismissive terms are the vernacular of the golden age of diplomacy Senator Kerry promises, we are left to wonder which nations would care to join any future coalition. He speaks as if only those who openly oppose America’s objectives have a chance of earning his respect.

Political Commentary

Another Foreign Leader For Kerry

Anti-semitic loon Mahathir Mohamad has endorsed him.

“I think Kerry would be much more willing to listen to the voices of people and of the rest of the world,” Mahathir, who retired in October after 22 years in power, told The Associated Press in an interview.

“But in the U.S., the Jewish lobby is very strong, and any American who wants to become president cannot change the policy toward Palestine radically,” he said.

[Update at 3 PM PST]

I guess that Mr. Kerry isn’t thrilled with that particular endorsement. In fact, now he’s finally caught a clue, and changed his tune (what a shock):

Political Commentary

To Heck With That Pesky First Amendment

This is one of the many reasons that I don’t like the Bush administration, though there’s no reason to suppose that a Democrat would be any better (Clinton certainly wasn’t). The “Drug Czar” says:

John Walters, in Las Vegas to push for a crackdown on the abuse of prescriptions drugs, said legalizing marijuana is “not an area for legitimate debate.”

No, it’s only an area for spewing nonsense by imperious federal officials.

Space

A Close Shave

A thirty-meter-diameter asteroid is going to pass within twenty-five thousand miles of the planet this afternoon (America time).

That is very close–about a fifth of the distance to the moon and well inside its orbit. A few thousand miles lower, and it could take out a geostationary satellite. If it were to hit land, it might leave a scar something like this.

And of course, like all bad things that happen, it will be Bush’s fault.

I took the picture Tuesday on a flight from Fort Lauderdale to LA, over Winslow, Arizona. The crater is almost a mile in diameter and about a two and a half miles in circumference. When it hit, back during the Pleistocene, it probably wiped out all life for many miles around. You can read more about it here.

Just another reminder that we have to start paying attention to these things.

[Update at 1:20 PM PST]

Clayton Cramer has more details.

General

Music of Erin

I would be remiss on St. Patrick’s Day if I didn’t point out my favorite Irish band, Altan.

They’re traditional, yet they have a very fresh sound. They’re led by a fantastic fiddler with a beautiful, ethereal voice, Mairead Ni Mhaonaigh (Mary Mahoney to us anglo speakers and readers), from County Donegal (and her ornamentation when she plays is a blend of that county’s style and her own). She’s the daughter of another famous Irish musician, Frank Mahoney.

They get a unique sound (in my opinion) by having a second fiddle, with very good guitar (and other plucked stringed instruments, such as bouzouki) backup and the traditional bodhran drum. The music is sung in both English and Irish, and is wonderful in both cases. Even if you don’t like dancing, their reels, jigs and slip jigs will pull your feet from the floor.

Check out the web site, check out the music, and buy an album or two. I’ve never found one I didn’t like. Also, they’re on tour now on the east coast. If you get a chance to hear them live, don’t miss it.

Weird

Amish Snowbirds

As an about-to-become Florida resident, I found this interesting:

“This would not be the norm for the Amish,” Miller says. “People say the Amish have long faces and short pocketbooks, but we enjoy coming down here and kicking back for a couple of weeks.”

…Two years ago, the Millers went parasailing.

“It’s just like flying,” Miller says. “We were up 650, 700 feet.”

“I closed my eyes for a while,” Becky says. “But it was awesome.”

“Know what I did up there?” Miller asks. “I kissed her.”

It almost reads like an Iowahawk piece, but it’s real.

I fully expect some sect of the Amish to come up with some way of justifying using space technology to homestead asteroids.

Uncategorized

“Damn It, Jim, I’m A Doctor, Not A Philosopher”

In perusing the latest issue of The New Atlantis (which also has pieces by editor Adam Keiper, Bob Park and Bob Zubrin on the new space policy–the Park and Zubrin pieces are regurgitations of the Great Debate), I see that Professor Diana Schaub, one of the recent appointments to the president’s Bioethics Commission (of which much has been discussed in the blogosphere), says that immortality is a bad thing.

Her argument?

Star Trek episodes. I kid you not.

Uncategorized

“Damn It, Jim, I’m A Doctor, Not A Philosopher”

In perusing the latest issue of The New Atlantis (which also has pieces by editor Adam Keiper, Bob Park and Bob Zubrin on the new space policy–the Park and Zubrin pieces are regurgitations of the Great Debate), I see that Professor Diana Schaub, one of the recent appointments to the president’s Bioethics Commission (of which much has been discussed in the blogosphere), says that immortality is a bad thing.

Her argument?

Star Trek episodes. I kid you not.