All posts by Rand Simberg

Wings Or Not–Who Cares?

There’s been a debate raging within the space technical community and inside NASA over whether or not the Orbital Space Plane should have wings. Obviously, it was named before anyone realized that there would be a debate and the assumption was that, of course, it would.

Jeff Foust has a good overview of that debate, but I want to make a different point, because I strongly disagree with Bob Walker’s comments here, and if they’re true they’re profoundly depressing.

While OSP is portrayed as an interim vehicle, a stopgap between the shuttle and a future RLV, some caution that whatever approach NASA selects it may be stuck with for decades. ?Whatever we design and spend money on is going to be the vehicle for the next 20 years,? said Walker. ?You can kid yourself that there are going to be follow-on vehicles and all that, but we kidded ourselves that way throughout the shuttle program. So you can depend upon the fact that whatever we do here is going to be around for a long time. It seems to me that you want something that at least will be adaptable.?

Two problems. First, I don’t accept that there will be, or at least that there should be, “the vehicle for the next 20 years.” The notion that NASA should have a vehicle is the source of much of our inability to make major space accomplishments.

We have to get out of this monoculture. We need multiple vehicles. And of course, because NASA has no grand ambitions, there’s no way to support their development.

But even if he’s right, and that NASA will have a new vehicle that will be “the” vehicle, it’s not at all clear that simply putting wings on the thing gives you much leverage into the future. It might be necessary (though I’m not sure that’s even the case) but it’s certainly not sufficient. Some fantasize that they can build this vehicle as a payload for a Delta IV or Atlas V, and then later use it as an upper stage for a fully-reusable system.

The problem with that is it implies that that system will be a three-stage system, because the delta-V capability of the OSP is not meant to help get it into orbit–the expendable launcher is supposed to do that–it’s only enough to meet the requirements for maneuvering on orbit, and deorbiting.

If you were designing a fully-reusable launcher right now, I suspect that it would optimize out to two stages. This probably balances the margins needed for operability (provided by staging) against the operational complexity of too many stages. But an OSP designed as a payload for an orbit-capable launch system won’t be optimized for that future vehicle–it will simply be a payload for it as well–not part of the launch system per se. Thus, the notion of using it as the upper stage of a new launch system is a non-starter. That means that the new system must have enough capability to deliver an OSP sized payload to orbit, and, by the logic above, be a two-stage system itself (meaning that the OSP will be the third stage).

If the goal is really to have a space transport, then they should simply build one, instead of building evolutionary dead ends that they hope can be adapted later on.

Of course, this is all beside the point, because what we should really be doing, as a nation, not just NASA, is figuring out how to encourage and nurture a private industry that can not only satisfy NASA’s requirements, but those of the rest of us as well, something that OSP will never be able to do.

Undying Mythologies

Disney has a new ride in Orlando that they claim is the most technically advanced they’ve ever done–a simulated mission to Mars.

…what makes Epcot’s Mission: SPACE centrifuge truly unique is that it’s not like a carnival ride version of a centrifuge — such as the Gravitron — where you’re “simply strapped in” and whirled around for a few moments in the open air.

Instead, you and three others ride inside what amounts to a full flight simulator — Disney calls them capsules — complete with individual monitors, control sticks to move and buttons to push.

“We’ve taken that centrifuge technology and modified it, if you will, for an entertainment attraction. We’ve added layers of audio, video, lighting and special effects to create sort of an immersive experience that helps support and tell our story,” said Mike Lentz, the Disney Imagineer who served as executive director for Mission: SPACE.

Sounds pretty cool. They’ve had a “Mission To Mars” ride in the past (that was an update on the original “Rocket To The Moon” that was part of the original Disneyland), but this sounds much more individualized, high fidelity, and upgradeable.

However, I have mixed feelings about it.

“We have worked for a long time about doing ‘space’ at Epcot because it’s just such a natural fit with what we’re about here,” said Brad Rex, Disney’s vice president in charge of Epcot. “This is a tribute to NASA and the space program.”

Sponsored by HP, the attraction was designed with the full support of the space agency and is believed to have cost Disney more than $100 million to develop and construct…

…NASA has cooperated with the development of Mission: SPACE at every step of the way. For example, solid hydrogen fuel, aerospike rocket engines and hypersleep all are technologies mentioned in Mission: SPACE, and all are being pursued in some way by the space agency, officials said.

“They’ve really done a very credible job at making this as strongly tied to reality as they can,” said David Lavery, program executive for solar system exploration at NASA Headquarters. “These are all realistic concepts that we’re pursuing in some of our advanced research and development efforts right now.”

But the big draw for NASA in working with Disney was the opportunity for educational outreach, as well as just simple inspiration.

“Part of our vision is to reach out and inspire the next generation of scientists, engineers, technologists and astronauts — and this is really a nice overlap between that part of NASA’s mission and what Disney is trying to do,” Lavery said.

My problem is that this perpetuates the heroic historical NASA myth–that only massive government bureaucracies will get us to Mars, that the only way to participate in space is to be a scientist, or engineer, or technologist, or “astronaut,” that the only reason people would go to Mars is to “explore” and “do science,” that this is what NASA would be doing, dammit, if we just had some politicians with vision!

Despite their proud proclamation of “tying it to reality,” I get no sense of any realistic vision of the future at all–it’s just using updated technology to promote the same socialistic utopias of the past that Disney has always promoted. We just don’t realize it because we don’t recognize it, partly due to similar propaganda put out unendingly by Disney and others for the past half century (the original Colliers pieces with von Braun were in 1953, I believe). Which is pretty ironic, considering that this is being sponsored by a mostly private-enterprise company, Hewlett-Packard. Which just shows that they don’t get it either.

While it’s nice that they worked with NASA on some of the technical aspects, it would have been nice if HP and Disney had consulted with someone besides NASA on the even more important social, business and cultural ones. Of course, the fact that they didn’t sums up in a nutshell why it’s been thirty years since the last time a human walked on another world.

Innovation And Bureaucracy

Jim Bennett has a good column about…well…lots of things, including idiotic grandstanding politicians, but Transterrestrial regulars may find this part of interest:

During peacetime, military bureaucracies historically tended to follow the pattern of civilian ones: stick to the rules, and beware innovation. During the stress of wartime, especially when things weren’t going well, militaries, to be successful, had to find a way to encourage and use innovation. Thus the military, unlike civilian bureaucracies, had legends of rule-breaking innovators that saved the day — sometimes literally. During the American Civil War, the innovative Union armored warship Monitor steamed into Hampton Roads the day after the similarly innovative Confederate ironclad, the Virginia, had decimated the wooden-hulled Union fleet. It is also a comment on the relative flexibility of military bureaucracies versus civilian ones to note the amount of time it took the British admiralty to give up on the wooden warship once news of that battle reached London: all wooden warships under construction were cancelled the next day.

Thus, when in 1957 the Soviets challenged the West by launching the first satellite, Sputnik, President Eisenhower reacted by creating two new government organizations. One became NASA, which went on to create the American civil space program (also conveniently drawing attention away from the already-massive American military space program, which had been drawing close to deploying the first reconnaissance satellites.) The second was a military agency, DARPA, which was a classic example of the military reaction under challenge — innovate and take risks. Although NASA became instantly famous, DARPA labored in mostly-welcome obscurity for decades, creating the occasional little invention like the Internet.

I found it particularly interesting in that I read it shortly after returning home from a meeting with someone fairly high in the ranks of the Air Force, at which we discussed this very problem.