Washington, DC December 7th, 1942 (Rooters)

A wide consensus of security experts concluded that the President’s recent address before the League of Nations failed to offer conclusive proof of collaboration between the German, Italian and Japanese governments in the recent series of attacks by fanatical Shinto extremists, and other incidents. On the other hand, some on the extreme fringe argue that the President did not go far enough to “connect the dots,” which they claim would link even actions generally not thought to be terrorism as part of the pattern.

The President had sought to establish a pattern of cooperation between the Japanese regime of Prime Minister Tojo and the German National Socialist state of Mr. Hitler. According to him, the attacks by Shintoist extremists on US naval vessels at Pearl Harbor a year ago, and the mysterious explosions on US tankers and merchant vessels in Atlantic waters over the past year were part and parcel of a “Second World War” actively being coordinated by Tojo, Hitler, and Mussolini.

Most experts and professional “profilers” doubted this analysis. “The President is indulging in fantasies about mysterious German submarines lying in wait and torpedoing American vessels. It’s far more likely that this is the work of domestic white terrorists from the Ku Klux Klan and alienated lone white males from the ‘torpedo subculture.'”

FBI sources indicate that the recent tanker sinkings off Miami were the work of a disgruntled torpedo engineer who secretly built torpedoes in his garage using stolen gyroscopes from the Navy lab in which he worked. The FBI cited eyewitness accounts at the scene who described an unknown white speedboat in the area immediately after each sinking.

Conspiracy theorists disagree. “Those were high-quality torpedoes with excellent guidance systems. It’s highly unlikely that they were manufactured in a garage by a single individual. As for the white speedboat, do you know how many white speedboats there are off the Florida coast? Once the Coast Guard had issued a warning to look out for white speedboats, they were reported everywhere. Nobody was looking for periscopes.”

Some on the extreme conspiracy fringe even seek to establish a link with the Ku Klux Klan conspiracy that sank the USS Panay in China back in 1937, for which several Klan-connected sailors were expeditiously hanged after a speedy court-martial.

Conspiracy theorists cite early eyewitness reports of low-flying airplanes with Rising Sun insignia and “Oriental-looking pilots” leaving the scene shortly after the explosion. However, Navy investigators maintain that those reports were quickly discredited and attributed to post-incident shock and confusion.

Experts also dismissed the recent capture of torpedoists Gunther Kraut and Jack Hitler in the waters off Miami, who have been charged with some recent torpedo incidents. Despite the fact that they were captured in a rubber raft with German Navy markings, wearing German Navy submariner’s uniforms, and that Hitler was an American citizen who had recently changed his surname from “Smith,” FBI sources said that any actual German or National Socialist connections were “tenuous” and “probably irrelevant to the case.”

In an apparent attempt to increase the volume of the war drumbeats, some conspiracy theorists are now claiming a link between the German-Japanese “Axis” and the recent mysterious explosions that sank the USS Yorktown in the Pacific. They use this as justification to claim that the “War against Extremism” is in fact a bona-fide, literal war against Germany and Japan–one which will not end until both Berlin and Tokyo have been invaded and occupied.

Most scoff at the notion, of course. The majority of informed analysts believe the sinking of the Yorktown and other Navy vessels to be the work of Shinto extremists angered by American interference with Japanese ambitions in Asia, and by the detention of large numbers of Japanese Americans following the terrorist attack of a year ago, or even the random acts of deranged individuals.

But in case it’s not the latter, the consensus is that the President should reconsider the nation’s “pro-China” foreign policy, and release all of the detainees. He must also be more vocal, many claim, in his admonition not to discriminate, and continue to affirm that Shinto is basically a religion of peace.

One highly-placed anonymous State Department source stated, “Sure, Hitler and Tojo aren’t up for any Peace Prizes, but they can be contained, and we can actually work with Mussolini to help moderate German ambitions. After all, if he can make Italian trains run on time, what can’t he do?”

Another well-placed Washington source said, “The President is stretching the facts in order to build the case for a League of Nations resolution permitting the use of force for regime change in Germany. But this will only get in the way of America’s search for justice against the Shintoist extremists who somehow managed to hijack Japanese Navy aircraft and bomb Pearl Harbor. Germany and Japan are quite different, and in some ways mutually opposed ideologies. Their only real link is mutual resentment against America. This does not add up to proof that they are conspiring together.”

“In any event, they are only a threat to their own regions, and there’s no concrete evidence that either of them have made any plans to attack America, despite their open declarations of war. To wage war on them would be the greatest of folly, with the potential for destabilizing the whole of Europe and Asia, and it will only increase the latent and growing anti-American sentiment in those countries.”

“This problem will only be solved by tightening up our homeland security, increasing surveillance on white extremist groups, and instituting tighter controls and background checks over purchases of torpedoes and their components. All must share the burden of protecting our nation–we cannot single out groups of people or nations for the actions of an extreme few.”

As for how to deal with the admittedly problematic states of Germany, Italy, and Japan, a coalition is forming within the League to propose to consider contemplating sending in weapons inspectors. Debate on the issue is expected to start by late spring.

Copyright 2002 by Jim Bennett (and Rand Simberg)

Washington, DC December 7th, 1942 (Rooters)

A wide consensus of security experts concluded that the President’s recent address before the League of Nations failed to offer conclusive proof of collaboration between the German, Italian and Japanese governments in the recent series of attacks by fanatical Shinto extremists, and other incidents. On the other hand, some on the extreme fringe argue that the President did not go far enough to “connect the dots,” which they claim would link even actions generally not thought to be terrorism as part of the pattern.

The President had sought to establish a pattern of cooperation between the Japanese regime of Prime Minister Tojo and the German National Socialist state of Mr. Hitler. According to him, the attacks by Shintoist extremists on US naval vessels at Pearl Harbor a year ago, and the mysterious explosions on US tankers and merchant vessels in Atlantic waters over the past year were part and parcel of a “Second World War” actively being coordinated by Tojo, Hitler, and Mussolini.

Most experts and professional “profilers” doubted this analysis. “The President is indulging in fantasies about mysterious German submarines lying in wait and torpedoing American vessels. It’s far more likely that this is the work of domestic white terrorists from the Ku Klux Klan and alienated lone white males from the ‘torpedo subculture.'”

FBI sources indicate that the recent tanker sinkings off Miami were the work of a disgruntled torpedo engineer who secretly built torpedoes in his garage using stolen gyroscopes from the Navy lab in which he worked. The FBI cited eyewitness accounts at the scene who described an unknown white speedboat in the area immediately after each sinking.

Conspiracy theorists disagree. “Those were high-quality torpedoes with excellent guidance systems. It’s highly unlikely that they were manufactured in a garage by a single individual. As for the white speedboat, do you know how many white speedboats there are off the Florida coast? Once the Coast Guard had issued a warning to look out for white speedboats, they were reported everywhere. Nobody was looking for periscopes.”

Some on the extreme conspiracy fringe even seek to establish a link with the Ku Klux Klan conspiracy that sank the USS Panay in China back in 1937, for which several Klan-connected sailors were expeditiously hanged after a speedy court-martial.

Conspiracy theorists cite early eyewitness reports of low-flying airplanes with Rising Sun insignia and “Oriental-looking pilots” leaving the scene shortly after the explosion. However, Navy investigators maintain that those reports were quickly discredited and attributed to post-incident shock and confusion.

Experts also dismissed the recent capture of torpedoists Gunther Kraut and Jack Hitler in the waters off Miami, who have been charged with some recent torpedo incidents. Despite the fact that they were captured in a rubber raft with German Navy markings, wearing German Navy submariner’s uniforms, and that Hitler was an American citizen who had recently changed his surname from “Smith,” FBI sources said that any actual German or National Socialist connections were “tenuous” and “probably irrelevant to the case.”

In an apparent attempt to increase the volume of the war drumbeats, some conspiracy theorists are now claiming a link between the German-Japanese “Axis” and the recent mysterious explosions that sank the USS Yorktown in the Pacific. They use this as justification to claim that the “War against Extremism” is in fact a bona-fide, literal war against Germany and Japan–one which will not end until both Berlin and Tokyo have been invaded and occupied.

Most scoff at the notion, of course. The majority of informed analysts believe the sinking of the Yorktown and other Navy vessels to be the work of Shinto extremists angered by American interference with Japanese ambitions in Asia, and by the detention of large numbers of Japanese Americans following the terrorist attack of a year ago, or even the random acts of deranged individuals.

But in case it’s not the latter, the consensus is that the President should reconsider the nation’s “pro-China” foreign policy, and release all of the detainees. He must also be more vocal, many claim, in his admonition not to discriminate, and continue to affirm that Shinto is basically a religion of peace.

One highly-placed anonymous State Department source stated, “Sure, Hitler and Tojo aren’t up for any Peace Prizes, but they can be contained, and we can actually work with Mussolini to help moderate German ambitions. After all, if he can make Italian trains run on time, what can’t he do?”

Another well-placed Washington source said, “The President is stretching the facts in order to build the case for a League of Nations resolution permitting the use of force for regime change in Germany. But this will only get in the way of America’s search for justice against the Shintoist extremists who somehow managed to hijack Japanese Navy aircraft and bomb Pearl Harbor. Germany and Japan are quite different, and in some ways mutually opposed ideologies. Their only real link is mutual resentment against America. This does not add up to proof that they are conspiring together.”

“In any event, they are only a threat to their own regions, and there’s no concrete evidence that either of them have made any plans to attack America, despite their open declarations of war. To wage war on them would be the greatest of folly, with the potential for destabilizing the whole of Europe and Asia, and it will only increase the latent and growing anti-American sentiment in those countries.”

“This problem will only be solved by tightening up our homeland security, increasing surveillance on white extremist groups, and instituting tighter controls and background checks over purchases of torpedoes and their components. All must share the burden of protecting our nation–we cannot single out groups of people or nations for the actions of an extreme few.”

As for how to deal with the admittedly problematic states of Germany, Italy, and Japan, a coalition is forming within the League to propose to consider contemplating sending in weapons inspectors. Debate on the issue is expected to start by late spring.

Copyright 2002 by Jim Bennett (and Rand Simberg)

In honor of my new carpet, and my resurrected computer network, I reinitiate (semi) serious blogging with another bit of forgotten WW II history, in the next post. This one was discovered by guest blogger Jim Bennett, while researching old Rooters press clippings in preparation for his upcoming book, “The Anglosphere: Man, Myth, Or Just An Unnatural Marriage of Linguistics and Geometry?”

In honor of my new carpet, and my resurrected computer network, I reinitiate (semi) serious blogging with another bit of forgotten WW II history, in the next post. This one was discovered by guest blogger Jim Bennett, while researching old Rooters press clippings in preparation for his upcoming book, “The Anglosphere: Man, Myth, Or Just An Unnatural Marriage of Linguistics and Geometry?”

In honor of my new carpet, and my resurrected computer network, I reinitiate (semi) serious blogging with another bit of forgotten WW II history, in the next post. This one was discovered by guest blogger Jim Bennett, while researching old Rooters press clippings in preparation for his upcoming book, “The Anglosphere: Man, Myth, Or Just An Unnatural Marriage of Linguistics and Geometry?”

No free ice cream for the next three days or so or, at least, very little.

We’re putting in new carpet in Casa de Transterrestrial, and anyone who’s ever done that knows that it can be almost as discombobulating as a move. My office and computer network will get torn apart this weekend, and put back together, hopefully, by Tuesday, at least well enough to get back to work.

In the meantime, there are a lot better blogs than this one over there to the left, so you needn’t be cold-dessert deprived.

Hope to be back soon.

Frank Sietzen, over at the Space Transportation Association, has responded to this week’s Fox column. I think that Frank is a good guy, but bear in mind in reading this that his organization survives in large part from donations from Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and other smaller beneficiaries of the SLI program.

Fox News’ article by writer Rand Simberg concerning the space shuttle program and the NASA Space Launch Initiative (SLI) demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of both programs, and of the nation?s space transportation policy and industry.

Contrary to the writer’s whims, the space shuttle system was never “dramatically overspecified”.

“Whims”? It’s not whims, it’s an opinion, shared by most objective observers in the industry, and strongly supported by the historical record.

Anyway, this seems to be a key point of contention. Let’s see how he supports it.

The original design, of a first generation partially reusable vehicle was modified to conform to the political and budget realities of the 1970s. Given the actual system as built, the shuttle has performed magnificently across more than two decades. A national policy decision made some thirty years ago called for the shuttles to fly commercial, military, and civil space payloads and cargoes. But that process was ended by President Ronald Reagan following the 1986 Challenger accident.

Let’s see, it was going to fly commercial, military and civil space cargoes.

Actually, it was designed to do much more than that, and its original 65,000 lb, fifteen-foot diameter payload capability was (if I recall correctly) driven by a (secret) requirement from the Air Force. Note that he ignores the cross-range issue. He also ignores the capability to do week-long missions, and the ability to carry science racks, and act as a temporary space station.

Oh, and by the way, it was supposed to do this with about half the development budget that NASA originally requested.

I’m still waiting for the part in which he refutes my contention that it was overspecified…

Since that time, the nation’s fleet of four shuttles have flown increasingly complex missions.

Note, like many in the industry, he says this as though it’s a feature, and not a bug. Complex missions, particularly when NASA prepares for them with months of training, are one of the reasons that Shuttle flights are expensive.

Following a transition to a commercial operator, millions of dollars have been saved from previous operational costs, and returned to the federal treasury.

How many millions of dollars, Frank? This sounds like a verbal sleight of hand.

Even a generously low estimate for the cost of a Shuttle launch is still several hundred million. “Millions of dollars” could be, say, five million dollars. In an annual budget of three billion or so, this would be chickenfeed. It’s hard to tell if it is or not, because he’s not very precise.

I’d like very much to think that he’s not just tossing out the word “millions” and counting on people to be impressed because it sounds like a lot of money…

And note again that he still hasn’t refuted my contention that the Shuttle was overspecified.

In these recent years, space shuttle flights have been increasingly safe, have launched more to a pre-set schedule than ever before, and increased flight safety. By whatever measurement one may choose, this system, now entering its third decade, has been a programmatic success for America and the space industry that builds and operates it.

I give up. I guess he’s not going to support his statement. He’s just going to change the subject. He must be just assuming that simply saying that I’m wrong makes it so.

I assume that he’s now transitioned to rebut my statement that Shuttle was a policy failure. He does so by setting forth his own criteria.

It’s safe(r), and it keeps a schedule better than it used to.

That’s the sole basis on which he claims programmatic success. He doesn’t mention cost, because that would blow his argument out of the water.

The original spec for Shuttle, in terms of flight rate and cost, was, if I recall correctly, sixty flights a year, and fifty-five million per flight. Instead, it’s about four flights a year, and an order of magnitude greater.

I guess you can call Shuttle a success if you decide to move the goal posts after the fact. I think that to do so is disingenuous. Your mileage may vary.

But no machine can or should fly forever. To begin the long term planning for a future generation of more advanced reusable craft, NASA has initiated a follow-on program called the Space Launch Initiative. Often referred to as “SLI”, the project has brought millions of dollars of government funding for technology advancements in spacecraft structures, propulsion, and vehicle operations. The SLI program has been- and we at STA hope it will continue to be ?a place within the federal budget where much needed research and development funding occurs for future launch technologies.

For much of the past decade, NASA and the Department of Defense have underfunded its technology and research programs with respect to launch systems. Both SLI, and the Defense Department’s Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle programs have been efforts to reverse that decline in federal investments. But continuous investments, and system enhancements to both reusable as well as expendable systems are needed.

Note that he says nothing about what the actual goal of SLI is. He also assumes that the only thing holding us back from cheap access to space is the fact that NASA and the Air Force haven’t been spending enough on that magic talisman of the NASA and Air Force engineer–“technology.”

There is no discussion of the institutional barriers, which are much more formidable. If SLI is only about technology, then the money would be better spent elsewhere, because technology development per se is neither necessary or sufficient to provide more routine access and lower launch costs.

Note also that he ignores the issue of replacing one single-point failure–Shuttle–with another one–Shuttle II. That was the wet dream of SLI, and that is why the program must be restructured.

Contrary to Mr. Simberg’s contentions, there is a space transportation industry. It consists of space shuttle operations, commercial expendable launch vehicles, a space propulsion industry element, and the need for long term research for the future.

Even if I grant his point that there is an industry (I was really referring to manned space), a “need” is not part of an industry. And “space shuttle operations” is a monopoly–hardly a sign of a healthy industry.

I have no objection to long-term research–it will eventually produce immeasurable benefits. It’s what NASA should be doing. What NASA shouldn’t be doing is dictating what the next generation of space transports will look like. I’m not as concerned with “eventually” as with the near future, and our continuing inability to affordably deliver passengers and cargo to space en masse, and return them.

If that’s a criterion for a space industry, then we most assuredly do not have one.

The nation can best assure its access to space by a balanced role of industry participation and federal investments.

This is just vague motherhood. Who could argue? The issue is the nature of that participation and those investments.

Both shuttle and SLI are vital elements of that access.

I read nothing prior to this statement to support it.

Basically, this whole thing comes across as boiler-plate PR pablum. I suspect that it was stenography from a Boeing flack in Crystal City, to try to salvage the disappearing SLI budget. I’m disappointed in Frank, because I would have hoped that STA would have had a more thoughtful response on this critical public-policy issue. We need to have a serious discussion–not regurgitations of NASA PAO and industry disgorgements.

It’s similar to what happened in Missouri with Mel Carnahan, except he was just a candidate, not the Senator.

I don’t know what Minnesota law is in comparison, but I’d guess he stays on the ballot, and if he wins, then Ventura will appoint another Senator (presumably a Democrat, though there’s no requirement for that). In theory, Ventura could appoint a replacement before the election, but I doubt if he’d bother, since it might become moot if the Republican wins. Whoever he appointed would only be Senator until January in that case.

On the other hand, it might be good for him to make the appointment now, because that would make the upcoming election a special election, in which case the Republican would take office on election day, just as Talent will in Missouri if he wins.

On the other other hand, maybe Ventura has to appoint someone ASAP, to fill the seat and maintain Minnesota’s representation in the Senate, particularly since they’re going to have to go back into session after the election for unfinished business.

My fear is that this is bad news for the Republicans, because the people of Minnesota might actually be more inclined to vote for a generic Democrat than they were for Wellstone.

[Updated thought, a few minutes later]

Will Ventura appoint himself?

[Another update at 2 PM PDT]

Now the rumor is that Mondale is in the running to replace Wellstone on the ballot. Like New Jersey, they’re replacing another non-viable candidate with a geezer.

As one wag on Free Republic put it, they’re passing the torch on to an old generation…

I disagreed with him on most issues, and hoped that he would lose his election, but he always seemed a decent, principled man, and I want to extend my heartfelt sympathy to the family and friends of Senator Wellstone.

I don’t think that anyone wanted to see the Republicans regain control of the Senate in this tragic way.

Qatar, the country in which we’ve built up new logistics bases, and from which our attack on Iraq will most likely be launched, may present a model for a modern Middle East (link for subscribers only, unfortunately).

In the past seven years, this tiny emirate has gone through a social revolution that has given women — and men — freedoms unheard of in most of the Arabian Peninsula. From lifting the prohibition on alcohol to abolishing censorship, Qatar has gone to great lengths to underscore just how different it is from Saudi Arabia. In the capital of Doha, which the Lonely Planet guidebook called the “dullest place on Earth” just a few years ago, nightclubs advertise happy hours and women cruise down the palm- tree-lined boulevards at the wheels of oversize sport-utility vehicles.

and

Even relatively liberal Saudis voice frustration with the tiny emirate. “A small country will always be a small country, and influence can only be gained by cultivating ties with neighbors and working with them as a team,” scoffs Abdelaziz al Fayez, a member of the foreign-affairs committee in Saudi Arabia’s appointed legislature, Majlis al Shura. The Qatari social reforms, he adds, just “show a willingness to uproot their roots in order to please outsiders.”

That makes some Qataris both angry and proud. “It’s not important whether our reforms bother the neighbors, it’s important whether they satisfy the Qatari society,” says Ahmed Ali, editor of the biggest of Qatar’s three Arabic- language dailies, Al Watan. “Maybe change in this entire traditionalist region will start right here, in the smallest country.”