There are, fundamentally, two subspecies of entrepreneur. One starts from the present, and visualizes the next logical step from where things are now. This type figures out how to make something better, cheaper, or more widely available, and manages to clear the financial, regulatory, and market barriers to getting it into the marketplace. The other visualizes a different world, one in which things are different and better from the way they are now, and then figures out what path of evolution brings us to that world, and, as the last step, what is the least ambitious step possible that will move things toward that goal.
Spaceflight needs a Steve Jobs. It’s not clear yet whether Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos fit the mold. But someone or some group of someones has to create the vision of abundant affordable in-space infrastructure that will finally replace the Apollo model.
I’ve got the presentation that Dallas Bienhoff gave in Long Beach last week that implicitly demonstrated the lack of need for a heavy lifter.
Note the element weights on page 6. The heaviest item is the depot at twenty tons, but that could go up in three flights. After that is the lander, at twelve tons. That sets the minimum throw weight for the launcher. It’s about ten percent of the eventual capability of the SLS.
[Update a few minutes later]
What’s funny is that the paper doesn’t just bury the lede — it leaves it out entirely. Note that nowhere in it, including the final chart describing the benefits quantitatively, does the phrase “heavy lift” appear. Because Boeing is not allowed to actually say that heavy-lift isn’t needed, even if that’s what their own analysis shows.
Guy Benson reports on the president’s latest press conference, so you don’t have to have had to suffer through it:
In summary: Pass this bill. It’s paid for. Republicans have no ideas. Mitch McConnell controls Congress. Independent economists love it. Millionaires and billionaires. Fair share. Not my fault. Japanese Tsunamis. I didn’t know. Bush. Pah-kee-stahn. Pass this bill.
Modern rocket engines are much safer than the historical examples he cites (e.g., XCOR has never had a hard start, let alone an explosion), and it makes no sense that a single accident would end the industry, any more than deaths on Everest stop people from climbing.
Those people you left stuck in traffic have a hard time paying their bills and rents and health insurance and mortgages. They worry about things like finding decent schools for their children to attend and making sure they don’t get fired at work, and fixing leaking roofs and chimneys.
You know what they don’t worry about, ever? Smashing patriarchy and capitalism.
So when your organizers go on television and say things like, “It’s revolution, not reform!” and they’re not joking, those words might give some of these narrow-minded people an unpleasant, October 1917 kind of feeling.