Category Archives: Business

Business, Economics, Space

NGLLC Day Two

3 Comments

Clark Lindsey is tracking progress up in Mojave today. The window presumably just opened.

[Mid-afternoon update]

Well, that’s it for Masten’s season. No chance to win Level II, but the second-place purse will remain on the table, unless the Pauls Breed can pull out a miracle in the next couple days. They apparently made the first three-minute flight, but had a fire on landing, and burned some sensor cables that they either had no replacements for, or insufficient time to replace within the window. But at least they’ll take the second-place for Level I (again, assuming that Unreasonable Rocket can’t beat their landing accuracy). Good luck to all contenders, now and in the future.

I will note that the 180-second test they did on Tuesday was tethered — Xoie had never flown in free flight, I assume because they simply ran out of time. But that shows why you have to do a full dress rehearsal (as Armadillo learned a couple years ago). It will be interesting to find out what caused the fire, if they can figure it out. Anyway, it’s a shame.

[Bumped]

Business, Economics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space

Success Of The Corndog

27 Comments

Clark Lindsey has some useful thoughts. As he notes, it would have been pretty amazing if this test had failed, considering what a trivial thing they were doing, and how much they spent on it. If it had failed, it would (or at least should) have been the end of NASA, or at least Marshall, as a credible developer of rockets (not that they should have such a reputation now, given the history of the past three decades). Another SpaceX could have been founded and another Falcon 9 developed for the cost of that test. Which tells you all you need to know about the cost effectiveness of the NASA jobs program.

[Update a few minutes later]

Jeff Manber says that it was the wrong test, at the wrong time.

[Thursday morning update]

Chair Force Engineer has some thoughts on the Potemkin Rocket:

While Ares I-X was a low-fidelity test of a bad rocket design, the test’s fundamental flaws should not detract in any way from the Ares I-X program personnel who devoted the last three years of their life to making this test a success. While I strongly believe that Ares I-X should have waited until the 5-segment SRB was available, Ares I-X still taught NASA personnel much about ground handling operations and ocean recovery for the Ares rockets.

It would be churlish to imply that people who work on a bad project are bad people, and I’ve never intended to do that. I know from personal experience in the industry that sometimes you have to do what you have to do, and the real tragedy is that so much talent, and not just taxpayers’ money, has been wasted on this program. It was a huge opportunity cost, in time, dollars and people. The people who work on it both happily, and otherwise, deserve plaudits for doing as good a job as they could under the circumstances. Let’s just hope that their talents can soon be turned to more useful ends.

Business, Economics, Political Commentary

False Dawn

38 Comments

…in Silicon Valley:

…in applied research, all of those new discoveries are ultimately going to slow or stall because the ‘pull’ of innovators who want to put those technologies to work, is fading. Sure, some big and aggressive companies like Intel will put some these inventions to work. But the big pull has always come from the thousands of fast-moving, risk-taking new start-up companies who find unexpected (and sometimes vast) new applications for those technologies.

Those companies aren’t there anymore. The crucial center of the tech world – new and fast-moving companies – the meat in the technology sandwich – is gone. Under the press of an economic slowdown, government regulations that have handcuffed entrepreneurs and venture capitalists – and perhaps most of all, an Administration that increasingly seems actively hostile to entrepreneurship and small business – high tech is hollowing out.

It all still looks good – the new cars in Silicon Valley traffic, the announcements of exciting new inventions – but there is no there there. It is a comforting illusion, one that has us believing that good times are just around the corner, that the next Apples and Googles are waiting in the wings to help restore the country to economic leadership and prosperity, and that Silicon Valley will once more become the generator of millions of new jobs across the land.

But it isn’t true. Over the last couple months, I’ve seen some spectacular new start-up companies, some with finished products on the market. All of them are starving from lack of capital –and their business plans, which would have attracted tens of millions of dollars two years ago, earning only shrugs and apologies from straitened venture capitalists and banks. My guess is that several hundred new start-ups in Silicon Valley have already been lost, with no sign anywhere on the horizon.

SOX is a big part of it, but the general political climate, in which “profit” is a four-letter word, and we have a president who elevates “public service” and denigrates business is a big one, too. And we won’t be able to do much about either for another year. Though if the polls are looking good to throw the kleptocratic anti-freedom rascals out next summer, perhaps the recovery can start a little sooner in anticipation.

Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space

More Augustine Links

7 Comments

…over at Clark’s place.

[Update a couple minutes later]

And a lot more at NASA Watch.

[Update a few minutes later]

One of Clark’s links is particularly interesting. Now that the report is out, Jeff Greason is unleashed: “It’s time to base US space policy on the truth.”

I’ve had some similar conversations with Jeff throughout the summer, but kept them off the record at his request. I suspect we’ll be hearing a lot more from him now, though.