Category Archives: Business

Stupid Idea Alert

No, even the premise was crazy:

While the premise of the 55mph speed limit was a perfectly valid one, the effectiveness of the rule was debatable. There is certainly no doubt that driving at a lower speed would consume less energy. The problem lies in the fact that the national 55mph speed limit was perhaps the most universally ignored law in history apart from prohibition.

Just what was it about the premise that was “valid”? That if everyone drove fifty five instead of seventy that it would save gas? Well, I guess. But so what? Why fifty five? Why not fifty? Why not forty five?

I have never seen any kind of quantitative analysis that provided a rationale for any particular speed limit (at least one designed to save gas and lives). What’s magic about the double nickel? (In this regard, it is subject to the same reductio ad absurdum as the minimum wage). Hey, I have an idea that would save a lot of gasoline. Let’s ban cars, motorcycles and trucks from the highways. Don’t allow anything on them with an internal combustion engine. That would solve the problem. And it makes just as much sense as an arbitrary federal speed limit. The only difference is that the absurdity of the proposal is much more obvious.

Despite their lack of analysis, proponents also claimed that arbitrarily capping legal speeds at fifty five promoted “safety.” The only rationale for this notion basically boiled down to “speed kills,” which is a pithy phrase, marred only by the fact that it doesn’t correspond to empirical reality. Even ignoring the very real fact that there was no significant increase in traffic fatalities after the idiotic law was repealed in the nineties (in fact, I think they went down), it doesn’t take into account the fact that time is money. If truckers followed the law, it would add a day to a cross-country trip, which means a day’s delay in the delivery of needed goods, and either more cost for the driver’s time, if he’s paid by the hour, or a cut in his profits if he’s paid by the mile. If a long-distance commuter did so, it might add fifteen or twenty minutes each way. He might have to get up earlier, so the extra time spent behind the wheel might come out of sleep time, thus increasing the possibility of an accident due to drowsiness. Also, slower speed means longer trip times, which might mean driving later into the night to get to the same destination, again increasing the chance of drifting off.

At four dollars a gallon, if gas is really saved at fifty-five, there is plenty of incentive for individual people to slow down on their own, if it makes sense to do so overall. But they’re in a position to make the trade off in a way that no legislator in Washington can ever be. We had a couple of decades in which to experiment with this foolish notion, and it was found wanting. Like Prohibition, let’s leave it in the dustbin of history.

One other point. I remember when the Republicans won the Congress back in 1994. I had some hope that there would be at least some rollback from a lot of the statist nuttiness that had been accumulating since The New Deal and The Great Society. Those hopes were mostly forlorn, with the rare exception of welfare reform, and George Bush has put the final nails in the coffin of the Gingrich revolution. But one other rare exception was the repeal of the fifty-five speed limit. If that particular bit of idiocy is reinstated, I’ll really feel that it was all for naught.

Virgin Tales

Jeff Foust has some reporting on Will Whitehorn’s talk at ISDC yesterday. In this post, he notes that White Knight 2 will roll out on July 28th, presumably in Mojave, and discusses other potential applications than just a first stage for SpaceShipTwo, including a satellite launcher. The lack of comment other than “we’ve learned some lessons” on the SS2 propulsion is interesting to me. It sounds like they’re still not sure what they’re going to do, which continues to put SS2 schedule (whatever it is) in jeopardy. I suspect that Sir Richard’s hype remains ahead of the actual program.

In this post Whitehorn mildly disses the Lynx:

XCOR is a company I respect, but with respect to them, they’re not building a spaceship. They’re building basically a high-altitude MiG equivalent. They’re building something that you can strap in and go up to 37 miles. You won’t get your astronaut wings but you will see the curvature of the earth. That will be an exciting project, but the problem is that it’s not a space project, and I think it’s been a little bit wrong to call it that.

While technically that’s true, it is a project that can easily evolve into a “space project,” which is what the program intent is. I don’t see this as a problem. In fact, I see it as a solution, because Virgin may have bitten off more than it could chew with SS2. In hindsight (and foresight for some of us) it might have been useful to develop more operational experience with a lower-performance vehicle before moving to a bigger one.

Really, the only thing lacking from the XCOR product is a lack of astronaut wings–it will certainly be a space experience, and a more personal one with a better view, sitting in the left seat. I think that the market for it will be bigger than Whitehorn claims to think.

Revenge Of The Jedi

The browser wars return.

This particularly caught my eye:

Firefox 3.0, for example, runs more than twice as fast as the previous version while using less memory, Mozilla says.

The browser is also smarter and maintains three months of a user’s browsing history to try to predict what site he or she may want to visit. Typing the word “football” into the browser, for example, quickly generates a list of all the sites visited with “football” in the name or description.

Firefox has named this new tool the “awesome bar” and says it could replace the need for people to maintain long and messy lists of bookmarks. It will also personalize the browser for an individual user.

“Sitting at somebody else’s computer and using their browser is going to become a very awkward experience,” said Mitchell Baker, chairwoman of the Mozilla Foundation.

Sounds like a market opportunity to me. I have a few ideas about how to solve it.