One third of federal workers are still thinking about quitting after tomorrow. Promises, promises.
Category Archives: Economics
The “Warmest Year On Record”
#ProTip to “scientists.” We have never been heading into a “known” climate. At least they included some cautionary voices, from people like Christie, Pielke, and Curry, even if they shoved them to the end.
And speaking of Judith, she has some thoughts on the “social costs” of carbon:
The bottom line is: water, food, energy. Heck, even the folks attending Davos get it. People need it and large numbers of people want more of it. And there are more and more people all the time. A single minded focus on reducing CO2 emissions neglects a lot of real problems facing many nations across the globe.
Climate variability and change impacts water, food and energy. But there isn’t much we can do to influence the climate on the timescale of the 21st century — however much we have impacted the climate over the past 70 years or so, those impacts (large or small) will work their way through climate system over the next centuries as the oceans act as a big flywheel on the climate system.
Back to the question posed by Revkin: Will Trump’s climate team accept any social cost of carbon? Well, I hope not.
I hope not, too. The uncertainty is far too great.
[Update a while later]
As usual, the “threats to science” come from the Left.
#ProTip: Science is neither "true" or "false." Truth is for philosophy. Science is merely a powerful method for understanding natural world. https://t.co/6vUGtrX20Y
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2017
First Vinyl
…and now Ektachrome is coming back. Some technologies are hard to improve on.
Obama’s Space Policy
Katherine Mangu-Ward writes that it’s one of the few things he got sort of right. With a bonus description of how NASA would procure ice cream.
[Saturday-morning update, about a half hour before SpaceX’s planned return to flight]
Wayne Hale remembers the “Flexible Path.”
SpaceX’s Finances
The Wall Street Journal has gotten hold of them. Eric Berger analyzes.
They’ve said that they’ve been profitable all along, and apparently were until that launch failure in 2015.
The Cislunar Verticals
Part 3 of Carlos Entrena Utrilla’s series on cislunar space is up now.
Geoengineering, Space Tech, And Societal Risk
Some interesting thoughts from Oliver Morton (who I unfortunately missed having lunch with in London last week, maybe next time):
AI worries people more, but geoengineering seems pretty well placed in second place. (Incidentally, what’s up with space as the top societal risk enhancer? If AI takes the laurels in terms of economy, geopolitics and tech, how come space outdoes it in the exacerbation of societal risks? A mystery for another time…)
Indeed. I have some ideas, and that some it arises from ignorance and too much bad SF in television and movies, but I’ll let the commenters have at it.
Pity Eric Holthaus
He’s having a climate meltdown. Which reminds me: Did he ever get that vasectomy?
You'd have to have a heart of neutronium to read these tweets from bed wetter @EricHolthaus and not laugh out loud. https://t.co/lLpNEq3rIG
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 11, 2017
[Update mid morning]
He and Holthaus should just curl up in a fetal position together. https://t.co/jZ7SBSMoqf
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 11, 2017
Small-Business Optimism
It’s at the highest level since Ronald Reagan was elected.
Not surprising. The people who've had their jackboots on small business's neck for the past decade have been completely removed from power. https://t.co/LIKJKZYRTt
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 10, 2017
Solar Power
It’s getting more cost effective, but it will always need load leveling. But I found this amusing:
Looking even further ahead, if we want a stable climate, humanity must bring net carbon emissions to zero.
There is no good reason to believe bringing net carbon emissions to zero is either a necessary or a sufficient condition for a “stable climate.” This planet has never had a stable climate, and it’s delusional to imagine that we know how to give it one now.
Speaking of which, Professor Curry has some thoughts on “skin in the game.”
If you are a weather forecaster in the private sector, you will quickly lose your clients if your forecasts are consistently wrong. Daily forecasts are evaluated daily; seasonal forecasts are evaluated several times each year. Clearly weather forecasters have skin in the game in terms of their forecasts.
With regards to climate projections, the predictions being made now will be irrelevant in 2100, which is their target prediction date. In fact, the forecasts become obsolete every 5 years or so, as new model versions are implemented. Recent attempts to evaluate climate model projections in CMIP5 during the early 21st century have shown striking discrepancies between model projections and observations.
Defenders of the climate models and climate model projections argue that climate models shouldn’t be expected to verify on decadal time scales.
In other words, climate modelers have no skin in the game in terms of losing something if their forecasts turn out to be wrong. In fact, there is actually a perversion of skin in the game, whereby scientists are rewarded (professional recognition, grants, etc.) if they make alarming predictions (even if they are easily shown not to comport with observations).
Let’s give them more money!