Category Archives: Economics

Business, Economics, Technology and Society

Shale 2.0

22 Comments

Yeah, I fully expect to see oil go below $20, expecially after the shakeout and bankruptcies that allow pumping at lower prices. And it will be good for everyone except oil companies and oil kleptocracies. Other than California, look for gas below two bucks indefinitely.

[Update a few minuts later]

OK, well, this isn’t as encouraging:

During the 2007 crisis, central banks the world over made a coordinated effort that pumped large amounts of liquidity into the system, easing the pressure. However, since 2009, these same central banks have followed an easy monetary policy, inflating balance sheets to scary levels, as shown in the chart above. They will find it difficult to handle any future crises caused by low oil prices. They are now out of ammunition.

The current oil crisis will see regime changes in strategic places, and a currency crisis is in the offing. The world is staring at deflation. And while the 2007 crisis started in the US and then spread around the world, today’s crisis is affecting all major nations simultaneously. All are struggling due to low oil prices—some directly because of lower revenues, and others because of deflationary pressure.

The next crisis will be larger and longer and it will hurt a lot more than the last one. The windfall at the gas pump is a dark harbinger.

At least we’ll be able to afford to fill the tank, if we have jobs.

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Climate Models

7 Comments

Another example of their bogosity:

It occurs to me to wonder whether this error in the GISS-E2-R ocean mixing parameterisation, which gave rise to AMOC instability in the Pliocene simulation, might possibly account for the model’s behaviour in LU run 1. It looks to me as if something goes seriously wrong with the AMOC in the middle of the 20th century in that run, with no subsequent recovery evident.

But let’s make wealth-destroying policy based on this!

[Update on January 28th]

Insights from Karl Popper to break the gridlock in the climate debate.

It’s sad how so many people who (ironically) accuse me of being a “climate denier” or a “science denier” are so profoundly ignorant of how science actually works.

[Bumped]

[Update a while later]

An analysis from Judith Curry and Nic Lewis on the latest climate crap from Mann et al:

As I see it, this paper is a giant exercise in circular reasoning:

  1. Assume that the global surface temperature estimates are accurate; ignore the differences with the satellite atmospheric temperatures
  2. Assume that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can be used to accurately portray probabilities
  3. Assume that the CMIP5 models adequately simulate internal variability
  4. Assume that external forcing data is sufficiently certain
  5. Assume that the climate models are correct in explaining essentially 100% of the recent warming from CO2

In order for Mann et al.’s analysis to work, you have to buy each of these 5 assumptions; each of these is questionable to varying degrees.

You don’t say.

Economics, History, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

Thirty Years On

15 Comments

This is the thirty first year my birthday has been marred by the event. Leroy Chiao thinks that we shouldn’t have retired the Shuttle, but he assumes we did it for safety reasons. As I note in the book, Shuttle was retired because it cost too much, and the fleet had gotten too small to sustain it properly.

[Update a while later]

My thoughts on the anniversary, and lessons not learned, over at USA Today.

[Update a few minutes later]

Clark Lindsey has a link roundup on the anniversaries.

[Update a while later\

Doug Messier has some thoughts, and a warning to the space upstarts.