Category Archives: Economics

Sputnik, And Apollo

Over at NRO, Jonah Goldberg points out the ridiculousness of the administration’s attempts to leverage the bin Laden killing to promote its domestic agenda, but in doing so, he misses a crucial point about the president’s historical confusion in the State of the Union:

Which brings us back to salmon regulations, immigration, high-speed rail, renewable energy, and other action items on Obama’s “win the future” agenda laid out in January’s address. Back then, Obama said we were in a “Sputnik moment,” referring to the time when the Soviet Union’s launch of a satellite inspired the Apollo space program and increased spending on scientific education and research.

…the most bestest part, as Brennan might say, is the simple fact that the president doesn’t know how we’ll “win the future.” In his Oval Office address on the Gulf oil spill, Obama explained that we don’t know how we’ll get where we need to go or what the destination will even look like.

But that’s the genius of the Sputnik analogy. Since, as Obama explained, “we had no idea how we would beat (the Soviets) to the moon,” it’s okay that we don’t know how to “win the future.” And that in turn means that during the weakest recovery in half a century, we can blow billions on mythical green-energy jobs, push a government takeover of health care, encourage skyrocketing gas prices, impose crippling regulations and higher taxes, and make “investments” in white elephants and high-speed salmon.

To clarify, Sputnik did not in fact give us Apollo, though it did kick off the space race, so to conflate Sputnik with not knowing how we would beat the Soviets to the moon is historically ignorant. Apollo occurred not as a direct result of Sputnik, but as a result of Yuri Gagarin beating us at getting a man into space (on April 12th, 1961, three and a half years after Sputnik), the embarrassment of the Bay of Pigs fiasco a few days later, resulting in a need to show that we were still in the game internationally, and our (final) success in getting a man into space ourselves (though not orbit) on May 5th, boosting our confidence. Twenty days after that (the fiftieth anniversary is coming up in a few days), Kennedy announced the goal of sending a man to the moon and back by the end of the decade. So even if you buy the president’s absurd logic in attempting to contextualize Apollo, it would have made much more sense to talk about our “Gagarin moment,” not our “Sputnik moment.”

And of course, as I’ve written before, anyone who uses the hackneyed phrase “If we can put a man on the moon, why can’t we…” almost always makes an inappropriate analogy in the process.

Good Russian Businessmen

I’ve said for years that no one, including the Russians, knows how much their space activities and hardware costs, because of the nature of their economy, in which proper cost accounting never existed under the Soviets. Presumably they have had time to fix this problem, but they don’t seem to have done so:

Russian engineering corporation Energomash sold rocket engines to the United States at half production cost, losing $32 million as a result, the Russian Comptroller’s Office said on Wednesday.

It did not say how many RD-180 engines were sold, only saying the loss was sustained in 2008-09, constituting 68 percent of the firm’s total losses.

This is going to be a headache for United Launch Alliance, which is going to have to purchase more engines in the future for the Atlas, and the price is likely now going to more than double, which means yet another increase in their costs. I think that Aerojet is actually licensed to manufacture the engines here, but they’ve never done so because it would cost much more than it has been to purchase from Energomash. This may change that calculation, but I’m not sure that it’s going to make sense even at the higher purchase price. It may still be cheaper to buy Russian. Of course, there could be a point at which the Pentagon makes a decision to subsidize the price, just for reasons of national security, to reduce our dependence on a nation that does not have our best interests at heart. If only we could get Congress to be sensible about Commercial Crew, so we can end our dependence on the Soyuz as soon as possible.