Category Archives: Economics

Scrap Ares I

The editorial board at the Orlando Sentinel (Florida’s largest paper) weighs in:

If U.S. space-policy decisions were dictated based solely on spectacle, the Ares I would be a shoo-in as NASA’s next manned vehicle. Unfortunately for fans of the rocket, cost, design and timing also matter.

Problems with all three argue for scrapping Ares I and assigning commercial rockets the task of flying to the international space station in low-Earth orbit. That would allow the agency to concentrate on its pre-shuttle mission of cutting-edge exploration.

I think we’re reaching the point at which its supporters are trying to swim up Niagara Falls.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Mark Matthews over at the Sentinel has a story on the hearings discussing the future of the program.

This should shock no one:

“There are a few people in the administration who want to kill Ares I and put all the money in commercial and the [Augustine] report tends to endorse that type of scenario. I think that is absolutely wrong,” said Doc Horowitz, former astronaut and Constellation architect.

If I were him, I’d just shut up, and hope that the IG doesn’t decide to open a belated investigation into his revolving door between NASA and ATK.

And then there’s this little tidbit at the end:

…there are whispers that the administration is exploring plans outside options presented by the Augustine committee, although it is unclear as to what they could include.

I suppose they could include (e.g.) bringing in the Chinese. We could just put it on the tab with all the other things we borrow money from them to buy from them.

When They Say “Do It For The Children”

…they’re talking about themselves:

Those unentranced by the magic flute have an obligation to remember what happened; to keep the history books free of revisionism so that by shame and memory those pied pipers who led a generation astray can never return unchallenged to sound their witching tune again. But for the children already lost to the dark we can only wish that wherever they have gone, they’ve found what they were looking for.

It’s unlikely. What they’re looking for doesn’t exist, and never will.

The Eightieth Anniversary

I just realized that it was eighty years ago that the stock-market crash occurred, setting off the initial recession that Hoover and Roosevelt turned into the Great Depression. And we don’t seem to have learned the lesson. In fact, George Soros is spending millions to ensure that we don’t. Thanks, George!

[Update a few minutes later]

A little relevant history.

NGLLC Day Two

Clark Lindsey is tracking progress up in Mojave today. The window presumably just opened.

[Mid-afternoon update]

Well, that’s it for Masten’s season. No chance to win Level II, but the second-place purse will remain on the table, unless the Pauls Breed can pull out a miracle in the next couple days. They apparently made the first three-minute flight, but had a fire on landing, and burned some sensor cables that they either had no replacements for, or insufficient time to replace within the window. But at least they’ll take the second-place for Level I (again, assuming that Unreasonable Rocket can’t beat their landing accuracy). Good luck to all contenders, now and in the future.

I will note that the 180-second test they did on Tuesday was tethered — Xoie had never flown in free flight, I assume because they simply ran out of time. But that shows why you have to do a full dress rehearsal (as Armadillo learned a couple years ago). It will be interesting to find out what caused the fire, if they can figure it out. Anyway, it’s a shame.

[Bumped]

Success Of The Corndog

Clark Lindsey has some useful thoughts. As he notes, it would have been pretty amazing if this test had failed, considering what a trivial thing they were doing, and how much they spent on it. If it had failed, it would (or at least should) have been the end of NASA, or at least Marshall, as a credible developer of rockets (not that they should have such a reputation now, given the history of the past three decades). Another SpaceX could have been founded and another Falcon 9 developed for the cost of that test. Which tells you all you need to know about the cost effectiveness of the NASA jobs program.

[Update a few minutes later]

Jeff Manber says that it was the wrong test, at the wrong time.

[Thursday morning update]

Chair Force Engineer has some thoughts on the Potemkin Rocket:

While Ares I-X was a low-fidelity test of a bad rocket design, the test’s fundamental flaws should not detract in any way from the Ares I-X program personnel who devoted the last three years of their life to making this test a success. While I strongly believe that Ares I-X should have waited until the 5-segment SRB was available, Ares I-X still taught NASA personnel much about ground handling operations and ocean recovery for the Ares rockets.

It would be churlish to imply that people who work on a bad project are bad people, and I’ve never intended to do that. I know from personal experience in the industry that sometimes you have to do what you have to do, and the real tragedy is that so much talent, and not just taxpayers’ money, has been wasted on this program. It was a huge opportunity cost, in time, dollars and people. The people who work on it both happily, and otherwise, deserve plaudits for doing as good a job as they could under the circumstances. Let’s just hope that their talents can soon be turned to more useful ends.