Category Archives: Economics

Another Twelve-Step Guide

…to destroy the economy. There are a lot of other good suggestions in comments.

Seriously, if he really wanted to destroy the economy, what would he be doing differently?

[Update a few minutes later]

Now you own it, Mr. President:

The Dow Jones industrial average, actually, has reacted to Obama by plunging nearly 20 percent since he became president. That’s an obliteration of wealth that no stimulus bill will recoup. Since Election Day, the market has lost nearly 30 percent of its value—trillions of dollars, not from CEO bonuses, as you may have hoped, but from your 401(k) and the private sector.

“The stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you’re probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong,” Obama recently explained.

You know, Mr. President, not everything is like politics.

The market is a forward-looking entity, indeed, but it is driven by the decentralized actions of millions of investors every second. It’s the opposite of politics. And this setup surely offends the sensibilities of the statist planners occupying Washington. Unlike politicians, markets don’t lie. And this market has been in freefall for a year.

So, what to do? Obama, who promised not to raise taxes during a recession, now plans to raise nearly $1 trillion in new taxes directly from the investor class. He plans to raise capital gains taxes (a disincentive to investment), corporate taxes (for you, the consumer, ultimately to pay) and on the “rich” (which the nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates will affect 1.3 million small-business owners).

This recession already has passed the 15-month threshold, the historical average for downturns. Most presidents helped ease us out of those tough spots by easing the burden on Americans. Obama has engaged in the opposite. That’s his gamble.

He forgot to mention the carbon tax, which will hit everyone, including the poor, in a quite regressive manner. I really am starting to think that Barack H. Obama stands for Barack Hoover Obama.

[Update a little before 2 PM Eastern]

Aunt Nancy says $1.6T isn’t enough.

These people bring to mind medieval doctors and leeches. Except they’re the leeches.

[Late afternoon update]

From Eric Cantor’s web site:

Just three weeks after President Obama signed his ‘stimulus’ bill into law, Congressional Democrats are already conceding that it will fail to achieve its objective. As the Speaker knows, the only reason to craft a second stimulus bill would be if the first one failed. Every Republican in the House voted against the first stimulus bill because we believed that Congress could do better, and we had a plan to achieve that goal. America does not need another massive spending bill, what we need is to create jobs.

Republicans developed an innovative plan to preserve, protect, and create twice as many jobs as the bill that Speaker Pelosi rushed to the floor last month. If Democrats believe that their stimulus bill has fallen short, then we should work together on the Republican Economic Recovery Act, which would revitalize struggling small businesses, help middle-class families, and immediately rekindle America’s economy and create jobs.

Don’t hold your breath.

One Of The Ways The Government Caused It

Holman Jenkins explains:

Mark-to-market accounting is fine for disclosure purposes, because investors are not required to take actions based on it. It’s not so fine for regulatory purposes. It doesn’t just inform but can dictate actions that make no sense in the circumstances. Banks can be forced to raise capital when capital is unavailable or unduly expensive; regulators can be forced to treat banks as insolvent though their assets continue to perform.

What happens next is exactly what we’ve seen: Their share prices collapse; government feels obliged to inject taxpayer capital into banks simply to achieve an accounting effect, so banks can meet capital adequacy rules set by, um, government.

But wait! I thought that the problem was all of the (non-existent) “deregulation” and “tax cuts” of the Bush years!

It would help if we could get rid of, or at least reform Sarbanes-Oxley, too, but little hope of that with this gang in charge.

[Update mid afternoon]
Stop favoring the short sellers.

[Update a while later]

Michael Barone: “Ad hoc Fed, Treasury Actions Caused Crisis, Not Deregulation And Tax Cuts.”

Well, duhhh. But reality didn’t fit the Messiah’s message.

It’s Not Just Flint

Here’s a blog that tracks businesses closing in Saginaw, thirty miles up the road.

Now here you have functional commercial real estate, at bargain prices, close to scenery and abundant recreation just to the north, and a work force looking for work. Why aren’t businesses flocking there from other parts of the country?

Might the problem be fifty miles to the southwest, in Lansing? The state is spending a lot of Michigan taxpayers’ money trying to attract them — I’ve seen the television ads. What the ads don’t say is that in order to pay for the ads, it’s got high taxes, particularly on businesses, and that it’s not a right-to-work state. But Jennifer and the legislature will no doubt continue to point fingers everywhere else.

Logical Disconnect

Some of my commenters attempt to make the illogical argument that because the top marginal income tax rate was almost forty percent during the Clinton era that there is no harm in raising it back to that now. Jim Manzi dissects this foolishness. I doubt if they’ll understand it, though.

[Update a few minutes later]

Victor Davis Hanson — Oh What Debts We Will See:

Athens in the fourth century B.C. chose to mint “redheads”, silver coins with bronze cores that were quickly exposed once the patina around the coins’ imprinted busts wore off. Rome did the same thing, and by the fourth century AD simply flooded its provinces with money of little real value. Germany paid off its war debts to France in the 1920s, with deliberately inflated German marks. I lived in Greece during the oil-embargo hyperinflation of 1973, and remember buying individual eggs with three or four inked-in price figures crossed out, as the store-keeper kept upping the price each day. (And I remember farming in the early 1980s when full-strength Roundup herbicide seemed to go from $60 to $70 to $100 a gallon in a single year).

I don’t think any one knows what is quite going on. I recently gave a lecture, and a Wall Street grandee afterwards approached the dais, asking me for advice (me, who could not even turn a profit growing raisins, and was a lousy peddler of family fruit for years at Farmers’ Markets), saying in effect something like the following: “Mr. Hanson—Consider: Real estate bad—not going to put money there when I’m not sure where the bottom is. Stocks worse—had I got out at New Year’s, I’d have thousands more than I do now. Cash pathetic—the interest doesn’t even cover what’s lost to inflation. So what’s left—the dole?”

I had no advice, of course, other than some vague warning that we are in a war against capital, sort of similar to what Sallust and Cicero claim that Catiline and his band of dissolute and broke aristocrats were planning, with his calls for cancellation of debts and redistribution of property.

It seems less than vague to me.

[Evening update]

How to wage a war on business. Any resemblance to current administration policies are purely coincidental, of course.

A Recipe For Ruin

Victor Davis Hanson:

With Clinton we got high taxes (bad) but balanced budgets imposed by the spending caps in Congress (good). With Bush we got tax cuts (good) but deficits (bad). With Obama we get tax hikes (bad) and astronomical deficits (bad).

Two notes: We are not going back to the Clinton tax hikes, but something far scarier, with states raising taxes, the fed doing the same, and new proposals to lift the caps on FICA payroll taxes. And these vast increases won’t go to pay for the deficit, but to fund new spending/borrowing plans that come on top of deficit spending.

Weimar, here we come.

Moral Bankruptcy

Some thoughts on the mortgage crisis and “cram downs,” from Megan McArdle.

There seems to be a push on by the left to completely destroy crucial Anglosphere institutions, including contract law, without which we would never have built the wealthiest nation in history. How easy or cheap do you think that it will be to get a mortgage when the lenders realize that their contracts can be whimsically rewritten by an unaccountable judge?