Category Archives: Political Commentary

The Battle Is Joined

Those notorious Obamaphiles, Newt Gingrich and Bob Walker, come out with praise for the new direction in space. This just shows how non-partisan an issue is, except to those who are hyperpartisan. If George Bush had come out with this policy, most conservatives (or at least Republicans) would have praised it. Had Barack Obama come up with the VSE and Constellation, he would have been hailed by many (though certainly not all) of the left as JFK redux, and many conservatives would have hated it. I wish that people would actually examine the issue on the merits.

Let’s Stop Pretending

…that we can build human outposts on the moon. Some useful thoughts from Richard Mains.

As he notes, we’re putting the cart before the horse when we insist on an architecture, right now, that can get us back to the moon, or anywhere beyond LEO. We cannot even get into LEO cost effectively (that’s what all the space policy fuss has really been about for the past five years), and until we solve that problem, it is crazy talk to think about lunar bases. Again this mentality is driven by the flawed myths of Apollo, in which we sprinted to the moon, bypassing LEO because we didn’t have time, and then abandoned it because it couldn’t be politically or affordably sustained. (By the way, another bit of historical ignorance on Krauthammer’s part was his worship of JFK as the visionary who led us there, when in fact he had doubts about it early on, was never a big fan of space, and it’s likely that it would have died if he hadn’t). As Richard says, we need to establish a solid foothold in LEO before we can think about the best way to go beyond it, and that means developing truly routine and affordable access to it. That’s the fundamental basis of the Space Access Society, because Henry Vanderbilt and others realized long ago that until we can afford to get into orbit, it’s pointless to dream about points beyond.

Right after the Columbia was lost, I wrote a piece along this theme:

I’ve written before about the fragility and brittleness of our space transportation infrastructure. I was referring to the systems that get us into space, and the ground systems that support them.

But we have an even bigger problem, that was highlighted by the loss of the Columbia on Saturday. Our orbital infrastructure isn’t just fragile–it’s essentially nonexistent, with the exception of a single space station at a high inclination, which was utterly unreachable by the Columbia on that mission.

Imagine the options that Mission Control and the crew would have had if they’d known they had a problem, and there was an emergency rescue hut (or even a Motel 6 for space tourists) in their orbit, with supplies to buy time until a rescue mission could be deployed. Or if we had a responsive launch system that could have gotten cargo up to them quickly.

As it was, even if they’d known that the ship couldn’t safely enter, there was nothing they could do. And in fact, the knowledge that there were no solutions may have subtly influenced their assessment that there wasn’t a problem.

The lesson we must take from the most recent shuttle disaster is that we can no longer rely on a single vehicle for our access to the new frontier, and that we must start to build the needed orbital infrastructure in low earth orbit, and farther out, to the moon, so that, in the words of the late Congressman George Brown, “greater metropolitan earth” is no longer a wilderness in which a technical failure means death or destruction.

NASA’s problem hasn’t been too much vision, even for near-earth activities, but much too little. But it’s a job not just for NASA–to create that infrastructure, we will have to set new policies in place that harness private enterprise, just as we did with the railroads in the 19th Century. That is the policy challenge that will come out of the latest setback–to begin to tame the harsh wilderness only two hundred miles above our heads.

Constellation did nothing toward that end. It in fact completely ignored the requirement, repeating Apollo with another unsustainable sprint across the wilds. The new policy holds some promise, finally, of addressing it.

More Bashing Of Private Enterprise

…by a supposed “conservative.” Charles Krauthammer continues his (unusually, for him) ill-informed hysteria over the new space policy:

…the administration presents the abdication as a great leap forward: Launching humans will be turned over to the private sector, while NASA’s efforts will be directed toward landing on Mars.

This is nonsense. It would be swell for private companies to take over launching astronauts. But they cannot do it. It’s too expensive. It’s too experimental. And the safety standards for getting people up and down reliably are just unreachably high.

Sure, decades from now there will be a robust private space-travel industry. But that is a long time. In the interim, space will be owned by Russia and then China. The president waxes seriously nationalist at the thought of China or India surpassing us in speculative “clean energy.” Yet he is quite prepared to gratuitously give up our spectacular lead in human space exploration.

As for Mars, more nonsense. Mars is just too far away. And how do you get there without the stepping stones of Ares and Orion? If we can’t afford an Ares rocket to get us into orbit and to the moon, how long will it take to develop a revolutionary new propulsion system that will take us not a quarter-million miles but 35 million miles?

I just read that second paragraph, and shake my head in sorrow at the ignorance, not to mention the double standard. NASA has killed fourteen astronauts in the past quarter of a century. On what basis can he claim that private industry (which is highly motivated not to kill people, because it might put them out of business, whereas NASA is rewarded when it fails), will do worse?

And even ignoring their horrific cost, in what way are Ares and Orion “stepping stones” to anywhere, let alone Mars? No one has ever put forth a plausible scenario in which Orion is utilized for a Mars mission.

Meanwhile, a much more sensible piece can be found over at the Asia Times, which points out how ridiculous it is to worry about the Chinese (with quotes from Charles Lurio and Jeff Foust).

[Update a few minutes later]

Keith Cowing points out more historical ignorance on the part of the good doctor:

Um, check your facts next time. We had a 6 year gap between Apollo-Soyuz in 1975 and STS-1 in 1981. We had no way to send humans into space during that time. And, FWIW, between the end of Mercury and the beginning of Gemini, we had no access, and between Gemini 12 and Apollo 7 we had no access to space. Between STS-107 and STS-114 … and so on. Gaps are not a new thing.

And a continuation of the Program of Record would have guaranteed that the upcoming one would be the longest yet.

[Morning update]

Krauthammer link is fixed now, sorry.

[Update a few minutes later]

Jeff Foust has a report on Lori Garver’s speech at the FAA meeting yesterday. It won’t satisfy the die-hard Apollo/Ares huggers of course, but it should appeal to more sensible people, including conservatives.

“An Illusion Wrapped In Denial”

Henry Spencer isn’t mourning the loss of Constellation, because the only loss was the opportunity to waste tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on a program that would likely have never even repeated Apollo.

[Update a few minutes later]

Also, thoughts from Jeff Krukin: Do we need destinations and deadlines? No, but we do need goals and milestones. This will be NASA’s challenge in the next few weeks.

FAA Conference Notes

Lots of interesting stuff coming across the Twitter feed, from Jeff Foust, Michael Mealling, and others. Wish I was there. Except for the snow, of course. Lori Garver was scheduled to speak at 8 AM, but was moved to the luncheon slot and replace by Ken Bowersox of SpaceX. Alan Lindenmoyer seems to be quite stoked at the new policy, and thinks that we’ll have commercial crew within three years or so. The biggest news that I see in scanning is that Blue Origin is planning a bi-conic capsule to go up on an Atlas V, as part of CCDev.

Continuing to read…

[Mid-morning Pacific update]

Lori is speaking now:

1. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust Garver: extended utilization is made possible by comm’l providers and provides anchor tenant for them #astconf half a minute ago from Twitterrific
2. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx RT @ac_charania: #astconf Lori Garver, NASA Deputy Admin, no single commercial provider in critical path, initiate commercial space race multiple companies 1 minute ago from TweetDeck
3. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx Garver: New plan fully utilizes ISS and engages Nat Lab Office to create nontraditional partnerships. #astconf 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck
4. Save_space_square_09-22-09_normal SaveSpace RT @jeff_foust: Garver: invest in KSC to make it the world’s most advanced commercial spaceport. #astconf 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck
5. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust Garver: invest in KSC to make it the world’s most advanced commercial spaceport. #astconf 3 minutes ago from Twitterrific
6. G_bernard_normal GaryBhotelguy RT @jeff_foust: Garver: will support multiple comm’l systems, not rely on single provider. Real space race will develop. #astconf 3 minutes ago from Twitterrific
7. Hounb_normal HiltonNASA RT @jeff_foust: Garver: will support multiple comm’l systems, not rely on single provider. Real space race will develop. #astconf 3 minutes ago from Twitterrific
8. Main_charania_thmb_2_normal ac_charania #astconf Lori Garver, NASA Deputy Admin, no single commercial provider in critical path, initiate commercial space race multiple companies 3 minutes ago from TweetDeck
9. Save_space_square_09-22-09_normal SaveSpace RT @jeff_foust: NASA deputy admin Lori Garver: move towards private sector has roots in Reagan admin policies in the 1980s. #astconf 4 minutes ago from TweetDeck
10. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx Garver: Fixed price contracts and service purchase agreements will change the game. #astconf 4 minutes ago from TweetDeck
11. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust Garver: will support multiple comm’l systems, not rely on single provider. Real space race will develop. #astconf 5 minutes ago from Twitterrific
12. Hounb_normal HiltonNASA RT @jeff_foust: Garver: for those worried about jobs, remember NASA budget increases, and those increases translate into jobs. #astconf 5 minutes ago from Twitterrific
13. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx RT @jeff_foust: Garver: for those worried about jobs, remember NASA budget increases, and those increases translate into jobs. #astconf 5 minutes ago from Twitterrific
14. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx Garver says new plan needed to keep from falling behind China & India. Real job growth opportunity in comm space over longterm. #astconf 6 minutes ago from TweetDeck
15. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust Garver: real job growth opportunity is in comm’l space, and country that captures that market gets those jobs. #astconf 6 minutes ago from Twitterrific
16. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust Garver: for those worried about jobs, remember NASA budget increases, and those increases translate into jobs. #astconf 8 minutes ago from Twitterrific
17. Justin_at_pass2_normal phalanx Garver citing Aldrich Commission findings. Time is now for President’s decision to build public/private partnership. #astconf 8 minutes ago from TweetDeck
18. Jeff_and_wk2_2_normal jeff_foust NASA deputy admin Lori Garver: move towards private sector has roots in Reagan admin policies in the 1980s. #astconf 8 minutes ago from Twitterrific

Note that they’re in reverse time order. I would repeat from my Corner comment, in a non-bizarro world conservatives would be cheering this, including the fact that, as she says, the philosophy has its roots in the Reagan administration.

[Late morning update]

“Garver: Ultimate goal is to expand human presence in solar system. Don’t believe naysayers.”