Category Archives: Political Commentary

The Cause Of The Ares 1 Problem

Well, actually there are multiple causes, but this is one of them. The launch escape system is very heavy. And it’s heavier than it needs to be because of the inherent inefficiency of the engines resulting from the cant outward (necessary to avoid blasting the capsule with the exhaust). Note that each opposed pair are fighting each other with the horizontal components of their thrust, contributing nothing whatsoever to the mission. This is called a cosine loss because the effective amount of vertical thrust is the total thrust times the cosine of the angle they’re canted at. Since the lost thrust is the sine of the angle, you need more thrust overall (and hence a heavier engine) to compensate, making a bad problem worse.

People have considered putting the escape motor underneath the capsule for this reason (I think that Mike Griffin even drew a napkin sketch of it–we looked at it in OSP as well), but that complicates jettisoning, since it goes between the capsule and the service module. That would mean that you’d have to carry it all the way to orbit on each mission, and then separate, jettison, and redock with the SM, which carries performance and safety risks in itself. Or if it goes under the service module, then the motor has to be a lot bigger, and then you have to do a CM/SM separation after motor burnout but before rotation for entry. So they stuck with the Apollo tractor configuration, in which the capsule is pulled away in an abort.

The other solution, which would give them a ton (actually, literally tons) of margin would be to get rid of the damned thing. It’s only there as a backup in case something goes wrong with the launch vehicle, and then only if specific things go wrong (for instance, a loss of thrust wouldn’t require it). The weight and design is driven by the extreme case in which the upper stage is exploding beneath you and you have to try to outrun the flying debris. This is an extremely unlikely failure mode, but politically, they have to have the system there, because no one wants to take the chance that they’ll have to testify before Congress that they killed astronauts because they didn’t have it. With it, the estimate is a one in five hundred chance of losing a crew. Without it, it’s much higher (though there are no doubt many astronauts who would accept the risk regardless, since they’re already doing so now on the Shuttle).

Also, as Jon Goff has pointed out in the past, they’re putting a lot of effort into safety during ascent, when this is actually one of the lesser hazards of a total lunar mission.

But that’s the way that politics drives a government space program, and why it is so horrifically expensive.

[Update a while later]

It just occurs to me that the other case where you need it is an on-pad, or shortly-after-liftoff abort, when there is insufficient altitude for safe chute deployment.

But the thing to keep in mind is that it made a lot more sense in Apollo, because in the early sixties, “our rockets always blew up.” The technology is much more mature now, and the failure modes for which it would be needed are much less likely, even in an expendable.

The New Blacklist

Maybe in an Obama administration, the House will set up a Pro-American Activity Committee, and properly investigate these subversives out in Hollywood:

David Horowitz, another Hollywood conservative and founder of the Los Angeles-based Center for the Study of Popular Culture, said the group is serving a good purpose but he worries its members won’t be aggressive enough.

“There’s a kind of … intellectual terror in this town. People are terrorized; they’re afraid to say what they think. So what Gary is doing to provide aid and comfort to its victims is admirable, and I applaud him for it,” he said. “But my concern is it’s not going to be much more than that.”

They told me that if George Bush was elected, that brave artists would live in fear of losing their livelihoods for their freedom of expression. They were right!

“Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the National Rifle Association?”

Filet Of Keillor

Lileks practices his fine art on his fellow Minnesota scribe, once again:

“,,,I want to see my man excited by the prospect of victory and not shrink from it as so many Democrats do. They’ve read too many books about heroic dissenters and it makes them nervous about being in too big a crowd.”

I have no idea what he’s talking about. Seriously. Perhaps in Pasedena there’s some alternate-universe Barnes and Noble where the shelves are stacked high with books praising the administration and shouting the myriad & infinite glories of America the Perfect, but I was at B&L today and there was a table six feet long heaped with books about how we’re screwed and broke and lied to and misled and all the other merry sentiments that abound in the land these days. I don’t think any of the authors are worried about selling too many books, and ending up in too big a crowd. If he’s saying that the Modern Brave Soul automatically questions his principles if they’re accepted by the masses – the loutish, stupid, cat-strangling masses – then he seems to have missed that portion of the internet that practices Heroic Dissent on a daily basis. Or maybe he spends all day reading the Daily Kos and wonders why these people are so timid and gunshy.

Let’s keep going with that crowd idea:

“The huge crowds that Barack draws are stunned by the fact that someone like him, with that interesting name, is – hang on now – a mainstream candidate for President of the United States, and that he is, on close examination, One of Us.”

That’s the line that pinged out at me, and made me file away the column for future fiskery. One of us. Never mind the gabba-gabba-hey connotations, or the “mainstream” line – I’d love to hear a Woebegon ep in which Rev. Wright brings his race-based rhetoric to a small Lutheran church. (“Think twice about who you put your arm around, Senator McCain,” the Scout cautioned in another column, back in the olden times when associations were relevant..) No, by “one of us” Keillor, I suspect, means the “us” of the smart set, the people who read the New Yorker even if one out 52 covers offends, the people who went to college for real instead of floating by with frat-boy grins, the people who protested the war instead of fighting it, the people who grapple, you know, with issues, seriously, and express a certain soulful anguish at the complexity of it all, and file away the details about zoning disputes with neighbors to be worked into a novel six years hence, when the whole incident has ripened into a metaphor.

Lots more where that came from.