Category Archives: Political Commentary

Who Would Have Imagined?

Just a month ago, many Republicans were resigned to hoping at best for the possibility of John McCain eking out a win against Obama, and not losing too much ground on the Hill. Now it looks like regaining Congress is within the realm of possibility:

The issues raised by today’s low approval ratings of Congress are reinforced by recent Gallup Poll findings that relatively few voters generally believe “most members” of Congress deserve re-election. That figure was only 36% in July, much lower than the 51% or better reading found in recent election years when the party of the sitting majority in Congress maintained power.

When the generic preference is only 3% among registered voters (not likely voters), the Donkeys are in big trouble, because registered voters almost always overstate actual support for Democrats at the polls.

McCain needs to start running hard against Pelosi and Reid. With all the nasty things that Reid has been saying about him lately, he shouldn’t have to work hard to motivate himself to do so.

It would help, of course, if Boehner and McConnell could make some noises to demonstrate that they learned their lesson from two years ago, and that they’re no longer going to be the party of pork and privilege. It’s a real shame that it looks like Stephens is going to win his primary in Alaska.

Palin Turnaround

My father, Dr. Dinkin Sr. author of Election Day: a Documentary History says that there has never been a VP who had this big an effect on the election–the most is about 5%. Further, that the last time a Party won that was behind in the polls after the second convention is 1964. Pressed he said 60-40 McCain. At intrade, McCain is trading at $0.52 for a security that pays $1 if he wins. Here’s what he’s trading at now (GMT):


If you smear lipstick on a pig, perhaps you have too much on.

Not Just The White House

These numbers over at Gallup should have the donkeys very worried.

Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention — and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket — has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.

Republicans saw an even larger increase in “leaned” party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they “lean” to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.

This is the Palin effect, and I think that it’s undone a lot of the damage that was done to the Republican brand that resulted in the 2006 losses. I wonder if a lot of the Republican legislators who decided to retire this year are having second thoughts?

These numbers also explain why Gallup has McCain leading, while Rasmussen has the race tied. Rasmussen hasn’t adjusted his mix yet–I think that it’s based on a three-month rolling average, and the recent shift in the political tide isn’t showing up yet, and won’t until just before the election.

Good Advice

From one Democrat to others: lay off Palin.

They won’t take it, though. They can’t help themselves. They’re too arrogant, and think that they’re smarter than their political opponents. They also think that they understand conservatives and Republicans, when they’re completely clueless, as Mr. Sapp points out. So they’ll continue to dig themselves a deeper hole.

[Update a few minutes later]

See? They can’t stop: they’re equating Sarah Palin with Osama bin Laden.

[Update a while later]

Jeeeez. Now Sarah Palin isn’t a woman.

Who knew? Sure fooled me.