Palin could be heard nearly squealing with delight in the front of the plane at the sight of three of her children at the foot of the stairs, and according to several aides, refused to stay inside the plane.
These numbers over at Gallup should have the donkeys very worried.
Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention — and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket — has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.
Republicans saw an even larger increase in “leaned” party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they “lean” to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.
This is the Palin effect, and I think that it’s undone a lot of the damage that was done to the Republican brand that resulted in the 2006 losses. I wonder if a lot of the Republican legislators who decided to retire this year are having second thoughts?
These numbers also explain why Gallup has McCain leading, while Rasmussen has the race tied. Rasmussen hasn’t adjusted his mix yet–I think that it’s based on a three-month rolling average, and the recent shift in the political tide isn’t showing up yet, and won’t until just before the election.
They won’t take it, though. They can’t help themselves. They’re too arrogant, and think that they’re smarter than their political opponents. They also think that they understand conservatives and Republicans, when they’re completely clueless, as Mr. Sapp points out. So they’ll continue to dig themselves a deeper hole.
He’s not that savvy. He’s lucky — which, as they say, ain’t nothin’. But he’s like a guy who got called up for the World Series after winning the high school championship: now, suddenly, the fields are bigger, the crowds are enormous and more discerning, and the other team is accomplished, professional and comes to beat your brains in — not to provide an exhibition in good sportsmanship.
Obama must react to this drastic change, but he is not as smooth as advertised, he simply does not have a well of experience to draw on, and, importantly, the Democrat nomination campaign did not prepare him. He has always had very obvious weaknesses, but the Democrat candidates could not exploit them because their nomination cannot be won without appealing to a hard-Left base which is night-and-day different from the vast majority of the country. They play a hardcore identity politics and they would crucify anyone who so much as hinted that a young, black community organizer with movement-activist (i.e., terrorist) friends and a record of protecting a woman’s right to choose even into the 4th trimester was not an ideal candidate.
Hillary, who would otherwise have been acceptable to the base, could not exploit Obama’s biggest vulnerabilities. She couldn’t go after him on terrorism because of the Clinton record of feckless counterterrorism and the pardons of Weather Underground and FALN terrorists (FWIW, that was my point in this piece). And she couldn’t go after him on his rise from the seamy world of Chicago politics because of, well, see 1992-2000. But realize that, even with her hands tied behind her back in this way, Hillary would still have beaten him had the race gone on another month or so.
The Dems have been in denial for months about how weak their candidate is. The only thing propping him up has been the favorable environment for their party. But I think a new wind blew in from Alaska a week and a half ago.
Well, I have, anyway. What does Camille think about Sarah (both women for whom no last name is necessary, at least now)? Here it is. I think she sort of has the hots for her.
[Update a few minutes later]
For contrast, here’s what a Hollywood nitwit thinks. If that’s the right word…