Category Archives: Science And Society

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

The “Warmest Year On Record”

12 Comments

#ProTip to “scientists.” We have never been heading into a “known” climate. At least they included some cautionary voices, from people like Christie, Pielke, and Curry, even if they shoved them to the end.

And speaking of Judith, she has some thoughts on the “social costs” of carbon:

The bottom line is: water, food, energy. Heck, even the folks attending Davos get it. People need it and large numbers of people want more of it. And there are more and more people all the time. A single minded focus on reducing CO2 emissions neglects a lot of real problems facing many nations across the globe.

Climate variability and change impacts water, food and energy. But there isn’t much we can do to influence the climate on the timescale of the 21st century — however much we have impacted the climate over the past 70 years or so, those impacts (large or small) will work their way through climate system over the next centuries as the oceans act as a big flywheel on the climate system.

Back to the question posed by Revkin: Will Trump’s climate team accept any social cost of carbon? Well, I hope not.

I hope not, too. The uncertainty is far too great.

[Update a while later]

As usual, the “threats to science” come from the Left.

Business, Culinary, Education, Health, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Medical Incompetence And Junk Science

10 Comments

This is a frightening story. It’s why I try to avoid hospitals at all costs.

I asked Dr. G, who is now his personal cardiologist, if we needed to do anything to prevent his potassium from going so low again. He said, “If he stays off that drug, he will be fine.” To think that he went through all this because his GP gave him a drug to prevent heart attacks!! What a crazy world we live in.

…The blood pressure medication Dean had taken for 20 years was hydrochlorothiazide. It is the most commonly prescribed medication for blood pressure, not because it is safe or effective, but because it is the one insurance companies choose to pay for!

The dietary and general medical ignorance on display, and the rules, are almost criminal. And I’m sure this is the kind of treatment that my father got when he died of his second heart attack, in 1979. And I consider my high blood pressure (with which I’ve been living otherwise healthily for many decades) to be less risk than most of the prescribed “treatments.”

Business, Economics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Science And Society, Space, Technology and Society

Geoengineering, Space Tech, And Societal Risk

1 Comment

Some interesting thoughts from Oliver Morton (who I unfortunately missed having lunch with in London last week, maybe next time):

AI worries people more, but geoengineering seems pretty well placed in second place. (Incidentally, what’s up with space as the top societal risk enhancer? If AI takes the laurels in terms of economy, geopolitics and tech, how come space outdoes it in the exacerbation of societal risks? A mystery for another time…)

Indeed. I have some ideas, and that some it arises from ignorance and too much bad SF in television and movies, but I’ll let the commenters have at it.

Business, Economics, General Science, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Social Commentary, Technology and Society

Pity Eric Holthaus

2 Comments

He’s having a climate meltdown. Which reminds me: Did he ever get that vasectomy?

[Update mid morning]

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Solar Power

7 Comments

It’s getting more cost effective, but it will always need load leveling. But I found this amusing:

Looking even further ahead, if we want a stable climate, humanity must bring net carbon emissions to zero.

There is no good reason to believe bringing net carbon emissions to zero is either a necessary or a sufficient condition for a “stable climate.” This planet has never had a stable climate, and it’s delusional to imagine that we know how to give it one now.

Speaking of which, Professor Curry has some thoughts on “skin in the game.”

If you are a weather forecaster in the private sector, you will quickly lose your clients if your forecasts are consistently wrong. Daily forecasts are evaluated daily; seasonal forecasts are evaluated several times each year. Clearly weather forecasters have skin in the game in terms of their forecasts.

With regards to climate projections, the predictions being made now will be irrelevant in 2100, which is their target prediction date. In fact, the forecasts become obsolete every 5 years or so, as new model versions are implemented. Recent attempts to evaluate climate model projections in CMIP5 during the early 21st century have shown striking discrepancies between model projections and observations.

Defenders of the climate models and climate model projections argue that climate models shouldn’t be expected to verify on decadal time scales.

In other words, climate modelers have no skin in the game in terms of losing something if their forecasts turn out to be wrong. In fact, there is actually a perversion of skin in the game, whereby scientists are rewarded (professional recognition, grants, etc.) if they make alarming predictions (even if they are easily shown not to comport with observations).

Let’s give them more money!

Education, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Judith Curry

19 Comments

…has resigned her tenured faculty position:

A deciding factor was that I no longer know what to say to students and postdocs regarding how to navigate the CRAZINESS in the field of climate science. Research and other professional activities are professionally rewarded only if they are channeled in certain directions approved by a politicized academic establishment — funding, ease of getting your papers published, getting hired in prestigious positions, appointments to prestigious committees and boards, professional recognition, etc.

How young scientists are to navigate all this is beyond me, and it often becomes a battle of scientific integrity versus career suicide (I have worked through these issues with a number of skeptical young scientists).

Despite the fact that she was protected by tenure, I suspect that she will be able to speak out even more effectively now.

[Update Thursday morning (London]

Thoughts from Mark Steyn.

Saturday-morning update]

Tucker Carlson interviews her.

[Bumped]