Category Archives: Science And Society

Will Climate Change Make Hurricanes Worse?

Maybe, but there’s zero evidence of it to date:

Last month, Roger Pielke, Jr., director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado, released the most comprehensive paper ever published on the subject of damage trends in Atlantic hurricanes. The article will appear soon in the peer-reviewed journal Natural Hazards Review.

Is the planet warmer than it was? Yes. Is there any trend in hurricane-related damages in the United States, where good records of damages exist? After accounting simultaneously for inflation, population, and property values, no.

I always find it irritating when the media report this or that hurricane as the “most expensive ever,” as though there’s some worsening trend in hurricanes, without putting it into context. Yes, hurricane damage will increase in the future, but not because hurricanes are getting worse, or more frequent. It’s because the value of the property at risk continues to increase. Fortunately, so does the general wealth of the society, though we do need to solve the moral hazard of subsidizing people who choose to live in hurricane-prone areas. But selfishly, I hope not before I sell the house in Florida.

Overrespected

Virginia Postrel reiterates a point that I’ve made many times–that even if we accept a scientific consensus on climate change doesn’t mean that we should blindly follow their advice on what to do about it:

…even assuming that scientists agree on the facts, science can only tell us something about the state of the world. It cannot tell us what policy is the best to adopt. Scientists’ preferences are not “science.” You cannot go from an “is” (science) to an “ought” (policy).

The Science Of Homosexuality

An interesting overview over at New York Magazine.

It’s long been obvious to me that homosexuals (and heterosexuals, as I am) are born, not made. What I did find interesting was the notion that women may not have an inherent sexual orientation, or at least one not as clearly delineated as that of men. It certainly jibes well with my own observations. But I’m skeptical that there’s no such thing as a male bi-sexual.

Quiet In The Tropics

Will it be a gentle hurricane season? Well, I obviously hope so. We’re almost a month into it, with just two minor storms, and it does look like things are going to stay calm for another month. But the peak of the season is still a couple months off, so I don’t think it’s safe to draw any conclusions yet.

Of course, I fearlessly predict that regardless of how many hurricanes there are–more, fewer, or the normal amount–some will attribute it to SUVs, and claim that it’s evidence for climate change.