The final assessment. I’m selfishly hoping they’ll delay past the 7th, because we get in from London at 2 AM on that date, and won’t be in a mood for a drive up to Vandenberg.
[Update a few minutes later]
Return to flight now scheduled for Sunday night. We’ll try to watch from the beach, if the weather is clear.
I usually write these sorts of things, but I’m on vacation, and Mike Wall has ten. I think that the Bezos announcement of New Glenn and New Armstrong are as big as Elon’s Mars announcement though. I consider Bezos both more ambitious, and more credible, in the sense that he is spending his own money, and not lobbying the government for it.
The Chinese are claiming they’ve successfully tested it on orbit.
I remain skeptical.
Bob Zimmmerman speculates on what the Trump administration might do in civil space policy.
A (sort of) debate between Paul Spudis and John Grunsfeld. I think that Grunsfeld is far too pessimistic about the moon, but I also think that this debate is irrelevant. Our future in space will be determined by billionaires, not Congress or NASA.
I’ve been watching this Kickstarter project. I was talking to Jon Morse a couple weeks ago, and he didn’t expect it to succeed. He was right; it only raised a third of the million dollars it sought. But it’s a useful market test for private space exploration. Maybe if they shoot for half that. I do think we’re entering a new era of what I call “normal science,” before the Manhattan Project, the Cold War, and Apollo screwed everything up, and things like the big telescopes (the first high-tech astronomy programs) were funded philanthropically.
NASA and DARPA are starting to get serious about it. I’ll probably try to join the consortium, for some business plans I have.
They’re battling over the future of NASA.
Thiel is pushing for a 21st-century space policy. Sessions represents the past, Apolloism, space socialism, and pork. He should stick to being AG.
[Update a few minutes later]
@Rand_Simberg Yes. THE "A" in #MAGA does not stand for Alabama.
— Michael Hendrickson (@theendofself) December 21, 2016
[Update a few more minutes later]
Not sure what “commercial space trade association” Tim Fernholz thinks that Alan Stern leads.
[Update a few more minutes later]
Tim pointed out to me that he’s chairman of the board of CSF, which I hadn’t known, or had forgotten. But I pointed out to him that Eric Stallmer is really the person who “leads” it, which he agreed was fair.
More on this topic from Eric Berger.
[Update a while later]
Not exactly space related, but sort of, in the sense that indefinite lifespan will help with opening the universe, an interesting description of what else Thiel is up to.
Some thoughts on Enceladus, from Carolyn Porco.
…could be up to five kilometers wide.
Mycroft Holmes, call your office.
[Update a few minutes later]
Speaking of the moon, Paul Spudis has some ideas about how to make space great again. I actually agree with most of it, except for this:
The Orion spacecraft and its SLS launch vehicle are currently in final stages of development, with initial test flights planned for 2018. We can use these existing systems to return to the Moon; indeed, as the remnants of the cancelled Constellation program, they are already optimized for cislunar missions. The only missing piece is a lander to put people on to the lunar surface. NASA’s Altair lander program was cancelled in 2011, but fortunately, a lander may be ready very soon. The United Launch Alliance has outlined a plan for a human-rated lander based around the venerable Centaur stage, using modified RL-10 engines. This vehicle is almost perfectly configured to return people to the Moon, as it is intended to be reusable and utilizes the LOX-hydrogen propellant that we will produce on the lunar surface.
The surest way to ensure that this doesn’t happen is to plan it around SLS/Orion, which will fly so rarely that we will make very little progress. He’s postulating the existence of a ULA lander, while ignoring the firmer plans for Vulcan ACES, which would be the natural way to carry out these mission (Orion might be usable in that scenario, but not SLS, and Dragon would probably be more cost effective). And as usual over there, the comments, particularly from “Bilgamesh,” are idiotic. And even more particularly the fantasy about flying SLS a dozen times a year.