My response:
If we really wouldn't fly crew on Dragon as is today, it just shows how unimportant we think that ISS is. @PopMech
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 3, 2014
My response:
If we really wouldn't fly crew on Dragon as is today, it just shows how unimportant we think that ISS is. @PopMech
— SafeNotAnOption (@SafeNotAnOption) March 3, 2014
Commentary on the latest pathetic attempt to justify SLS.
A long-time reader relates a sad anecdote:
I went down to the Louisville, KY Militaria Show of Shows, and on Saturday I also went to the National Gun Day Show in the same complex(I collect antique firearms). After purchasing two old rifles, near the far side of the hall, was a table asking people to sign a petition calling for Obama’s impeachment. What was striking was that in addition to impeaching Obama, the table had a sign asking people to reject cuts to the NASA budget, specifically the SLS. Reading the form, I saw that agreeing that Obama should be impeached went along with increasing the funding for the SLS. (It also included the usual pro-gun rhetoric, needed for a gun show). I asked the people about that, and got into a discussion about the SLS aspect. From what I made of the table renter’s comments, he wants an end to SpaceX and other private sector space businesses, giving all the money to NASA. I was civil, with some effort, since he didn’t have much in the line of facts to back up his arguments on the SLS side, and started getting into personal insults. The “high” point was when he said that if I wasn’t pro SLS, I was anti-gun. This despite my carrying two rifles, a pass from the SOS, and showing him my NRA card.
He wanted me to stay and
be insultedargue some more, but I was exhausted from two days of the shows, so I just walked away.I’ve gone to over 50 shows in the last year and a half, since I got back into the firearms community after my father died and left his firearms to me. Large and small, I’ve never seen someone pushing the SLS. I’ve talked to a few people that support the new space companies, but incidental to the firearms being offered for sale. This guy was more passionate about the NASA cuts than the impeachment or the 2nd Amendment.
Sigh. Fortunately, he probably is a bizarre outlier.
The magical thinking behind it:
This mission requires more magical thinking than a leprechaun trying to predict the track of a flock of flying unicorns on their annual migration.
MPCV employs a heat shield designed for lunar return and its CM is ~20% (thousands of pounds) overweight for its parachutes. But we’re going to equip MPCV with an even heavier heat shield for Mars return and magically it will be capable of a safe Earth landing?
There’s practically no element of the ISS ECLSS that lasts more than a year. But magically every component will remain operating for 17 months in a new vehicle when applied to a Mars flyby mission?
ASAP is warning about the lack of an ECLSS shakedown on MPCV before sending astronauts around the Moon for a few days. But magically we’re going to decide that the ASAP membership are all wimps of the highest order and decide to risk astronaut lives for 17 months on the first shakedown of the MPCV ECLSS?
At best, SLS is scheduled to have an upper stage capable of launching this mission a half decade after the mission’s 2021 window closes. And magically that half decade of development is going to be accelerated by more than a decade?
Congress can’t find funding to perform testing like AA-2 or to finish development like MPCV ECLSS in a timely fashion, and the White House is wrapped around the axle of ARM. But magically billions of dollars of federal funding are going to appear in a timely manner to develop a new ECLSS, a new hab module, a new heat shield, and a new upper stage for this mission?
If Tito really wants to see this happen, he has to give up on getting NASA to pay for it, and for it to happen with NASA hardware. He needs to sit down with SpaceX and Bigelow.
I ran across this old piece I wrote a few months after the loss of Columbia. It has some of the underlying themes of what later became the book, and holds up pretty well, I think.
For LA types, did I mention that I’m doing one tomorrow in Manhattan Beach?
Unfortunately, it’s supposed to be the worst weather in months. Maybe thunderstorms. But at least there won’t be any thunderblizzards.
Keith Cowing points out the political chicanery and fiscal absurdity of a 2021 attempt with SLS/Orion.
Also, note the technical issue. Orion was designed to come back from the moon, not from Mars. It can barely manage escape velocity on earth entry. Note page 17 of the Plymouth Rock paper:
Reentry velocities are 11.05 to 11.25 km/s for asteroid missions, vs 11.0 km/s for lunar return
TPS enhancement may be required depending on the ultimate capability of Orion lunar TPS
They’ll be coming in a lot hotter than that for Mars. And what will they use for habitat? There’s no way Orion itself is large enough for a mission of that duration.
Note: I do think that the mission is physically and fiscally possible, in that time frame. Just not with SLS/Orion.
[Update a while later]
If Congress was serious about a Venus/Mars flyby in 2021, it would divert all funding from SLS/Orion to hardware actually needed to do it.
— Rand Simberg (@Simberg_Space) February 26, 2014
…has just had an unfortunate life-altering experience, but he’s got a great attitude. As I noted on Twitter, we’ve come a long way with prosthetics, and they’re only going to get better (I suspect a lot of the progress has been driven by the wars over the past decade).
Over an Space News, Donald Robertson has an op-ed that could be a summary of my book, though he doesn’t mention it.
A story on his plans for orbital and lunar bases, starting three years from now, at CNBC.