At least the program part. There will be partying into the night. Then I drive back over to LA tomorrow.
Category Archives: Space
A Couple Other Armadillo Notes
I missed this part of John Carmack’s talk somehow, but it would seem to be news that Jeff Foust picked up on:
At the 2008 Lunar Lander Challenge last October, Rocket Racing and Armadillo Aerospace announced a joint venture to develop vertical takeoff, vertical landing vehicles for suborbital space tourism. However, Armadillo Aerospace founder John Carmark revealed at Space Access ‘09 this morning that this deal—at least, as announced in October—has fallen through. Carmack said that while there are relationships with both Rocket Racing and an unnamed third party, the deal as announced “did not come to fruition”. Carmack added, though, that he anticipates making some announcements in the next month that may be related to any suborbital vehicle work.
If so, he’s not the first to have run into issues working with Granger Whitelaw. Likely he’ll not be the last, either.
And I didn’t mention it in my previous post, but this was news as well, I think:
Will be competing for Level Two this year, and they hope to make their attempts from their home field when season begins in July.
My emphasis. I hadn’t heard this before. I think that it may be the first public announcement of the beginning of the competition season. I wonder if John was supposed to make it?
Latest Space Carnival
It’s being hosted at Cheap Astronomy this week.
Jim Muncy
In about half an hour, Jim Muncy of the Space Frontier Foundation will be talking about space policy issues, particularly the dreaded Gap. Look for live updates after the current break, when I get back to the computer.
[OK, speech starting]
Jim (unusually) has charts. Title: Mind The (Space) Gap. Another troublemaking project of the Space Frontier Foundation.
Back in 2005 CEV (Orion) was not aimed at ISS. No requirement for ISS, and Steidle didn’t want it to. Number of innovative architectures considered. Steidle proposed a “nontraditional crew” development effort over 2005-2008 to address if you could take the Burt Rutan SS1 approach and use the commercial market to build the reliability of human earth/orbit systems so that NASA wouldn’t have to “human rate” vehicle that would launch CEV. CEV could go up uncrewed, and meet crew on orbit. At that time, NASA forecast a four-year gap from 2010 to 2014, even with risk reduction of two CEV contractors and nontraditional effort. That was the plan.
Then came Mike. Had to get rid of the gap. Was “unseemly in the extreme” for the US (read NASA) to not have a human launch capability, maybe even a national security issue. It was no longer about getting NASA beyond earth orbit, but it became about “closing the gap” because it was just wrong for NASA not to launch humans into space. He says that it’s not Apollo on steroids, it’s Gemini on steroids. What we’d be left with after Ares 1 and Orion would be Gemini in capability, with a larger capsule.
Some doubted hysteria, and didn’t think we could afford to both close gap and achieve VSE goals, and that it wasn’t a national security threat to not be able to launch astronauts into space on NASA vehicles. But some Senators insisted (with zero evidence) that it was.
So we lost the goal of the vision, of affordable and sustainable. The brightest guys in the room, the rocket scientists, decided to pull a bait and switch. They decided to use the ISS as an excuse for developing the new vehicle to close the gap, even though they defunded the research at the station to pay for their new rocket. They thought that this was the one and only opportunity to develop a new launch vehicle. It wasn’t really designed to close the gap, it was designed to go to Mars. But that’s not how it was sold, and they rammed through a transportation system as though it was the B-52, something to be used for over half a century to do everything NASA would be doing. And the story was that it was a Shuttle-derived approach that would close the gap down to 2012. It would be Safe, Simple and Soon.
How is that working out? NASA’s current forecast is calendar year 2017. $44B to Initial Operating Capability, so gap has grown by three years from original VSE goal. Slipped five years from ESAS goals of three and a half years ago, or 1.3 years per year (new NASA metric YPYS — Year per year slip). So much for new exploration.
No way NASA gets to the moon by 2019 if it only launches Ares 1 in 2017. May not get there until 2029 (Apollo sixtieth anniversary), if ever, and it won’t be “affordable” or “sustainable” or fit under likely budget. “We are spending a lot of money in DC right now.” Do you see politicians throwing a lot of money at NASA? No. NASA is not seen as stimulating the economy, or developing technology, or relevant. Some of have noted and said this for years. Doesn’t fit the budgets as they’re likely to be, and NASA never gets back to exploring. Betrayal of a third presidential mandate in space (first was space station, second was Bush 39 SEI, also known as staff expansion initiative, and now VSE). Presidents have set goals for space, but the agency hasn’t been honoring them. And even leaving aside exploration, NASA has failed by its own metric of clsoing the gap. You don’t have to argue about the technical details, or even that it’s going to be too expensive to operate. All you have to do is point out that with this plan the gap has increased from four years to six or seven years. In the administrator’s words, this architecture is unseemly, a national security threat, disinspiring our youth.
We are now in the era of hope and change. We can fix mistakes with a new administration and congress. The fastest safest/cheapest/approach is to utilize existing/developing commercial ELVs to launch simple human-carrying spacecraft (i.e., COTS D).
SFF thinks it’s time to declare Ares 1 and ESAS a failure. NASA should use its stimulus funds to stimulate a new human ETO industry by funding multiple COTS D concepts. Launch Orion on EELV. Pursue “cheapest” medium-heavy option for exploration and intermodal demos.
When NASA claims that Ares 1 is needed for Orion they’re fudging the numbers, because the abort system for Ares 1 is heavier than it would be for an EELV, because the former cannot be shut down and the abort system has to outrun it.
Has no problem with Shuttle Z or some other cheap and dirty approach to launching fifty or sixty metric tons at a time, but have to do something so that fifty years after we landed a man on the moon we can land a man on the moon. It’s easy to fix the problem if we only mind Mike Griffin’s first suggestion, and actually mind the space gap.
In response to a question, he still professes optimism about the administration. There is someone at OSTP (Mike Kleegle
Timely
On the last day of the Space Access Conference, the latest New Space News comes out, and it debuts in new blog format.
Masten Space Systems
Dave Masten: small company developing VTVL vehicles, like Armadillo. Based in Mojave with small team. Have been working on the last year developing reliable igniter (they’ve sold one) and a 500 lbf-thrust engine. Since last year they lost teh XA-0.1 vehicle on a tether, breaking off landing gear when it swung, and then breaking off the tether, landing on the engines. Vehicle relatively intact, but went on to new vehicle, XA-0.1B that used the old engines. Moving to new lower-maintenance, second-generation engine now, with 750 lb-f thrust. Did sixty tests of engine with six injector sets, and ended up with 120-second firing, which was depletion of test-stand propellant.
XA-0.2 still being built, and expect to fly it by the end of the year.
Michael Mealling describing business over the past year. Getting interest in people on new 750 lbf engine. Responding to various RFIs for low-altitude and high-altitude spaceflight. Encouraged by Ames suborbital reusable payload program.
Ben Brockert now briefing more engine details. Target Isp of 220 seconds. Has lower chamber pressure than earlier engine. Cooper now, aluminum later for chamber. Durable, can run to both fuel or oxidizer exinction. Pintle injector, with independent fuel and oxidizer injectors. Three of each, allowing nine combinations, as well as different fuel densities. Want test trailer to be as close as possible to operating vehicle, so brains for trailer same as those for vehicle. Target date for flying the single-engine vehicle is this month (April). Announcing it here, if they don’t make it, feel free to make fun of him at Arocket. Happy engine died because he was getting tired of fixing old engines.
Space Frontier Foundation
Bob Noteboom and Jim Munch describing the foundation for those unfamiliar with it. Referring to foundation projects, including Teachers In Space, space solar power, cheap access to space, and talking about upcoming conference, twentieth anniversary of the foundation and fortieth anniversary of the Apollo landing, at Ames this year, July 17th-20th. Muncy says, “that’s right, a Space Frontier Foundation meeting being held at a NASA center.” Will be showing Orphans of Apollom, with lots of interesting panel on ITAR, space power, commercial spaceflight, etc. Looking for volunteers to help with marketing the conference. Want people web savvy and familiar with PR and media.
Armadillo
Showing a 1930s-style newsreel video called “Armadillo News.” Describing 2008 activities, starting with Rocket Racer (ethanol/LOX). Showing takeoff in Oklahoma in August (test pilot says it’s a bigger kick in the pants than an F-18 on afterburners). Now experimenting with autogenous pressurization system for LOX (previous systems were blow-down). Describing trip to Las Cruces for Lunar Landing Challenge, where they won Level One, but didn’t make Level Two.
Planning flights up to 8000 ft this year in Texas.
John Carmack talking now and starting off with discussion of business aspects. This was the year they finally transitioned from hobby to business (partly at instigation of his wife). He has put in zero money in the last year (half a million a year before that). Company is in the black, with a small payback of his own investment. Wants to pay back his investors in full with a profit (“that would be me”).
Has finally understood why XCOR’s prices are what they are, and now understands that price has little to do with cost, and understands now how much one can end up spending when all costs are included and it’s not just a hobby any more. Several potential customers, but few of them pan out. Fortunately, two came through and were enough to get through last year. Armadillo has about the same fifty-fifty split between government commercial as XCOR. About a third the size of XCOR, and they’re both tiny compared to other companies in the business. Both companies focused on space tourism, but excited about suborbital science as well. Doesn’t expect a “ton of science” but it will be a good learning experience.
Were hoping to have flown at altitude by now, but hard to find air space where they could do it. Had to do a demonstration under tether with several FAA officials to persuade them that it was safe, but was a successful turnaround in attitude. ATC doesn’t care what happens on the ground — it’s all about not hitting their airplanes on IFR. ATC showed Armadillo how much air traffic was going through their box every day. Pain to coordinate as often as necessary for waivers, but they’re now on first-name basis with FSDO and establishing smooth relationship. Thought they were through the hurdles, but still awaiting final approval from Washington, which will be another three weeks or so. Forced them to miss a money milestone with NASA for methane flights. Expect permission, though, because everyone is on board. Has been a long wait (years) for altitude testing, but thinks they’re almost there. Has cash reserves because of revenue last year, and in good shape even if revenue peters out this year. Lunar Challenge has been beneficial, but has also been a distraction from their goals, and the revenue makes it worthwhile in hindsight. Will be competing for Level Two this year, and they hope to make their attempts from their home field when season begins in July.
Can’t reveal as much about business this year as he has in past years due to Rocket Racing League constraints. Has been useful to work with them because it has helped tighten up their procedures. Have gotten to become much more of a believer in checklists and call outs. Integrated check list directly into flight control system on his laptop, so they can actually now track time lines between events reliably with time stamps. Wants to incorporate voice logging. Was duct taping voice recorder to equipment, but now will be including live voice recording with other data streams and telemetry.
After working with rocket planes, still likes VTVL for efficiency. May have to sacrifice government business if it insists on wings. Agrees with XCOR that smallest vehicle for revenue with high flight rate is the way to go. Open to idea of rocket airplane, but think it’s just a lot harder. Getting to a hundred kilometers with rocket plane is not trivial, and thinks it’s just easier to bull your way through the atmosphere with high mass fraction. Glad to see that both approaches will be tried, and we’ll see how it works out. Starting to think about the implications of putting people in the vehicles, and sobered by the thought that they could kill this guy they sort of like, so getting more serious now.
Still talking to AFRL but they seem too timid to Armadillo. NASA has been very supportive, and eager to see things happen. Had to develop a lot of injectors to get combustion stability for methane in transitioning from alcohol engines and experience. Testing expansion bell technologies, and NASA doesn’t really care much about combustion efficiency, so it’s working out well, and they’ll be learning a lot about nozzles and bells that will be useful for upper atmosphere performance.
Discussing the learning experience about hazard and failure analysis. Says that they don’t have trivial failures any more — they’re always combination failures now. Showing a video of trashing a vehicle. It was a tether failure, and it’s something that AST could look at and use it as an opportunity to create a regulation, for good or ill. It was a big vehicle, where the computer controlled a ball valve to let pressurant into the tank. They started with a full tank. There was no ullage space, and the regulator valve allowed it to over pressure, and it burned through quickly. Should have been burn through, shut down, bounce off the tether. But it burned through while against a gimbal attach point, and rotated in a cartwheel. It happened to hit a tether attach point that had a smaller bolt than specced. It broke it off and hit another one which also broke. Shows it both real time and slow motion. Sequence of five things that went wrong to cause a bad day. Fortunately they have better fire suppression than the local fire department. In fact, they helped out the fire department when a neighbor’s house was on fire. They’ll have a sixteen-hundred gallon tank for their future tests. Also learned a lot about putting out chemical fires, upwind versus downwind, etc. Vehicle has been repaired and improved, with lighter-weight legs that they needed anyway.
Don’t know what the next vehicle will look like. Only think firm is fixed engine differential throttling, spherical tanks. Ready to start flying when the get permission from DC, and think they can learn much of what they need to under six thousand feet (e.g., max Q). Will go higher at Spaceport America. Has a line of skydivers who want to be first.
XCOR
I missed the talk by Jeff Greason yesterday. But Jeff Foust covered it, and says it was the highlight of the day. Also, Rob Coppinger has a video interview with Jeff.
Rob also has a report on the suborbital science discussion presented by personnel from Ames Research Center on Friday afternoon.
Rocketplane Global
Chuck Lauer is giving a status on Rocketplane. Showing the latest version of the XP.
Past year has been difficult, and financial situation has not gotten any better — primary challenge in wake of COTS debacle has been financial, not technical.
Five spaceflight participants, single pilot, two plus two plus two seating, each person gets two windows and video monitor. Using kerosene for turnaround and allows jets and rockets to use same fuel, which allows diversion of rocket fuel to jets in emergencies. Using derivative of Atlas sustainer engine. Turbopump engine with peroxide monoprop for pump. Similar to SpaceX engine, which is legacy from FasTrack. Affordable proven technology. Need peroxide anyway for RCS. Has high flight reliability with benign failure modes and shutdown. Abort modes and safe shutdowns are key to passenger safety. Provides automatic shutdown with health monitoring. Only dump LOX in event of shutdown and fuel is transferred from fuselage to wings. Carry light load of jet fuel, but in event of problem, use rocket fuel for jet safety margin. Using J-85 jet engines, still flying, still supported. Afterburning for takeoff performance and to allow higher altitude before lighting rockets which improves overall system performance. Uses electromechanical actuators. All-electric fly-by-wire system. Peroxide RCS provides full three-axis control. 309 seconds Isp which is pretty good without staged combustion.
Multi-function displays for cockpit. Paragon building ECLS for non-suited cabin. Believe strongly that pressure suit detracts from experience. Also there are failure modes where pressure suit actually introduces hazard. Will provide necessary redundancy to persuade FAA that they can safely fly without pressure suits. Experience will be captured on built-in cameras, though passengers can bring their own.
Doing wind-tunnel tests, and have one more run to do before designing flight-control system.
View from Oklahoma provides views from Rockies to Gulf of Mexico. Thinks that clouds detract from flight experience, so scratching head over flying from northern Scotland. Have hired designer who has worked for BMW and others for quality interior and comfort.
Thinks that non-passenger, non-tourist market is significant for them and the entire industry. Ames doing good work, but need to update Futron study to better understand suborbital market. Thinks an update could be done for a hundred thousand or so. Ames is showing that we can do other things with these vehicles. Showing picture of standard rack in vehicle after seats have been pulled out. Should be able to swap out passenger seats for mid-deck lockers to whatever degree necessary to fly combination of experimenters and experiments. Working with media sponsorships, selling rides to others who give them away for marketing purposes. Have seen increase in sales by space-based ad campaign.
Also have applications for external stores for either launching satellites or sensors. Astronomy community interested in observation in bands that don’t get through the atmosphere. High-fidelity astronomy and remote sensing. Can put a lot of equipment on if passengers and seats removed. Working with Hawaii for first FAA-licensed point-to-point corridor, from Kona to Oahu. Hawaii sees this as analogous to digging channels in Honolulul for flying boats in the thirties, to enhance tourism industry. Combining real-life spaceport with virtual reality all the way out into the solar system. Sweden, UAE, Singapore, Hokkaido also interested. Awareness growing internationally, and expects going from first to second generation vehicles with one-hour ocean hops (Mach 10). Growth from suborbital to orbital separate discussion.
His efforts focused totally on suborbital now, and it’s much cheaper than orbital. Thinks they can do suborbital for hundred million. $28M invested so far. Orbital (Kistler) not dead, and restructuring to find the money. Price increases have made them more viable. They were first canary in the coal mine looking for capital when everything was shutting down. Order book that NASA has now is four times what it was in COTS 1, and if they’d had that then, they could have raised the money. $220M per launch for cargo is a nice market, and they think they could be flying the first reusable system to go after that within three years of funding. K1 is not dead, and when you look at Bigelow and non-NASA markets the business case can be made once the money starts flowing in the financial markets again.