Category Archives: Space

Treating Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen, the private sector’s number three astronaut gave some remarks to welcome the space investors and entrepreneurs to the Space Investment Summit along with Buzz Aldrin on Monday. He said, “I live in Princeton. Everyone knows everyone in Princeton. I went out to dinner and the owner of the restaurant said, ‘You’re that astronaut guy.’ I said, ‘Yes.’ He said, ‘Let me give you this bottle of wine!’ I was feeling pretty good about myself until my girl friend said, ‘If you were Buzz Aldrin, he would pay for your whole dinner.'”

Olsen was not there as an investor. His current investment fancies are energy related. We shared a cab after the event broke up. There was a bunch of road construction near the Ritz where Boeing had hosted the welcome. I asked him, “Which is rougher, a Soyuz flight or a New York City cab ride?” His answer: “Both.”

I asked him if he got a tax deduction on the flight from doing experiments. “No.”

We were both going to different Jean George’s, but Olsen tried to convince me that they had only one location in New York. It seems Olsen can still be surprised.

I explained to him that I’d spent more money than the cost a suborbital flight trying to bring space to everyone. And that Space Shot’s Latin motto, Astrae Popularetis, means, “You’ll see the Stars belong to the People.” I got off first and he said, “Don’t worry about the cab fare.” I said, “After that story you told, you have to let me pay.” I gave the cabbie $20 and said, “Driver, I want to treat this man to a cab ride!” If he was Buzz Aldrin, we would have taken a limo.

Window opening and closing or just opening?

Alan Marty, an investment consultant speaking at the Space Investment Summit yesterday, drew the comparison of semiconductor fabs right before the boom and the orbital access market. That there is $500 million of government assistance reducing the barrier to entry now for launchers and then for fabs. He said he thought the window for launching an orbital company is open now but will be closing. This suggests RpK and SpaceX will enjoy a long profitable run if they are successful.

Bob Werb, co-founder of the Space Frontier Foundation, said, “The window is opening and will open again and again,” in his remarks at the closing of the event.

I don’t see a big drop in access prices if these are the only entrants. Musk and French will reduce prices enough to shut out more expensive launchers, but then split the market and prices will drop no further. But that high price will continue to attract entrants once the subsidized entrants make good.

Give The Lunar Solar A Rest

One of the presentations at the Space Investment Summit was on Lunar solar power. Solar satellites were also referred to. One presentation noted that if a government agree to buy solar at $0.85/kwh (about a 900% subsidy) that space solar would pay. Great. You can make $50 billion if they give you a $70 billion subsidy. Hand me a glass of ethanol.

My previous best efforts on solar are here, here, and here.

I think there is a fairly simple case against. Grant that space solar is 4x as efficient per kilogram as Earth solar. Ignore the fact that people want more power during the day than at night. Grant that we can take raw silicon and turn it into solar cells with minimal remote human input. Grant that we can beam it. Ignore that if we import solar power in quantity that the price of coal and uranium will drop until they are competitive again as fuels.

Can’t we just set one of the ‘bots that will build the cells loose in an Earth desert? Doesn’t it require the transportation cost to space be on the order of 4 times the manufacturing cost for space solar to be economically effective? Even if we are just talking about the regolith eating robot, don’t we have to get transportation cost down to three times the cost of producing a sand eating robot and letting it loose in the desert? Am I missing something? I think this argument means space solar will never be competitive.

Aldrin Announcement

“I’ve decided to launch an effort through my Share Space Foundation….Share Space Stakes! A sweepstakes or raffle. Proceeds benefit space related and scientific and educational goals. Donations open possibility of winning prizes. Starting with parabolic flights. Expanding to suborbital flights.

“Soyuz costs…millions of dollars…. The cost could be paid for by hundreds of thousands of people donating $50.

“We have not yet developed the rules, but it will be posted on our Share Space web site. Share Space Stakes is scheduled to be launched this year.

“Winners will have to be 18, satisfy certain health restrictions. This will be non-transferable.

“Space travel is poised to go from the few to the many. I hope to play a role with Share Space Foundation…. Who knows who will be one of the lucky winners about to take their own space adventure.”

Thanks Buzz! Welcome to the party.

Vacate Space Liability

Art Dula speaking at the Space Investment Summit in Manhattan today called for Congress to reform the Outer Space Treaty to cap the unlimited liability that signatory countries have for their nationals’ space accidents. “They don’t have this for oil tankers or airplanes.”

[Update by Rand Simberg]

One of the reasons they don’t have it for airplanes is the Warsaw Convention. Did he propose extending that to space?

[Update by Sam Dinkin]

He proposed getting an act of Congress passed to unilaterally limit the US federal government liability.